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NOBLE DYNASTY 7/1 Power
Not a good race and last time out beat English Oak who romped home next time out. And can continue to climb the ranks.
I’ll stick with POPMASTER 22-1 ew with Laddies boost for me.
Been a bit disappointing so far this season but if he can get back to last season’s end of year form I think he’ll run well.It’s never much of a weekend ahead of Royal Ascot. This one is no exception.
My pin’s landed on Point Lynas. I thought there was plenty to like about his York win. He went hard on the front end, and it wasn’t a case of taking advantage of an easy lead. Hoping he gets quick ground, backs up, and most of all finds a couple of pounds for the drop in trip.
I was on Point Lynas at York so I can’t jump off.
The things I want most in life are the things that I can't win.
Could be plenty of pace which will set it up for Bless Him 25’s and the wonder horse Witch Hunter 11/2
Can’t see Witch Hunter out of the first place… Which makes me wonder is he here for a Queen Anne warm upBlackbeard to conquer the World
I can only imagine it’s the potential pace overdose that is causing Point Lynas to drift. Are they all going to be stupid enough to go forward?
They’ve been stupid enough before to let horses go on unassailable leads with no chance of recovery so possible
Sometimes a lead horse that doesn’t lead can throw in the towel. Trainer instructions to add to the mix. If they all think don’t be stupid and nothing jumps clear it could get messy, makes it tactically intriguingBlackbeard to conquer the World
Content with 4/1 NOBLE DYNASTY. Had 400+ days off before what looked an average run in Dubai, that clearly brought him on loads and fancy him to keep improving. Hopefully Pat Dobbs is the right man for the job with Buick in the US.
I expected to be against Witch Hunter before I studied the race, but with Pogo, Port Lynus and Quinault all front runners who rarely do anything else – all probably need to lead in order to produce their best. Plus Flight Plan whose best form is from the front… And Noble Dynasty also seemed to improve last time when leading (although prior to that seemed equally effective from mid-div)… It may well be set up for the normally dropped out the back, Witch Hunter.
Another one I like at the prices is Vic Cup runner-up Ramazan. Ridden nearer the pace there but is normally held up. Has been headed close home in three of his last 4 starts. Be great if he could go one better here.
Witch Hunter 11/2, Ramazan 7/1 and Noble Dynasty 9/2. Combined price of 2.17 46.1% about something imo has a 19% + 15% + 22% = 56% (1.79) chance of winning.
Value Is EverythingDo you not find with races like this where connections know on paper everyone wants to go forward based on previous form, that they change tactics to try and be clever and in the end none of them do and it pans out the opposite way to how you expected it? Its why I don’t really see the point in pace maps because it only really tells you what they’ve done in the past not what they will do on the day, front runner might miss the kick, horse suddenly changes tactics with no clue it’ll happen… seen it all happen many times. Take them with a pinch of salt.
I can see where you are coming from. The pace map is no more than an indication of what has happened in the past. It’s certainly not an absolute guarantee.
The worst example for me is Dan Skelton. So many horses ridden out the back until all of a sudden they are ‘expected’ and tactics are completely changed. No more secretive trainer in the game.
Pogo was hassled up front and passed from about halfway in his last race but rallied. Witch Hunter was behind. Over same course and distance and grade. Will Witch Hunter be able to reverse it?
It’s always possible some jockeys / connections will change tactics. But changing tactics to what the horse doesn’t like still means those ex-front runners have less chance because they’re less likely to run to form doing something different.
I’d be surprised if one or two don’t try something different, but even so there should be enough competition for the lead to make at least a good pace. ie Not inconveniencing those held up… And a good chance of a strong pace and a fair chance of an overly strong pace. If the latter it will enhance Witch Hunter’s chance enormously. Another way it will suit him is it would turn into a test of stamina at the trip. ie Suit those effective between 7f and a mile rather than those effective from 6f to 7f.
However, there’s still a fair chance one or more of these front runners being non-runners.
Value Is EverythingWho are you expecting to pull out? Both Pogo and Point Lynas are better on better ground.
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