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A case of right place, right time for this over rated multiple group one winner. It happens.
There’s a wee bit of a problem with this assessment though. We’re not talking about some ageing sprinter scrambling home in a blanket finish to win a 5F G1 after competing in class 2 handicaps.
Furthermore, we’re not talking about a G1 with a small-field where one jockey sets a slow pace and steals the race by increasing the pace from the front.
We’re not talking about a horse winning a G1 after his nearest market rival gets a stinker of a ride from its jockey.
We’re talking about a horse which won 5 consecutive G1s in three different countries. We can talk about the opposition being poor, about him being lucky. But if the achievement is so unremarkable… well, how many others have done it?
Fist wrote:
Sometimes we ecpect too much from AOB and co. They just had another disaster down under and simply the horses wern’t good enough.
Fist, I agree Ballydoyle had a disaster, a fearful one! But, I can’t believe you really believe that Viewed and Bauer are better horses than Septimus!
O’Brien has admitted that he has a lot to learn about Australian racing and winning this race in particular. Perhaps he will reconsider the timing of the travel and the need for an Australian prep. I hope he learns from this horrendous mistake. I hope also that his three horses are not shattered by the experience.
Perhaps next time O’Brien will use Australian jockeys, let them get to know their horses in a prep or at least in work riding, and let them race ride instead of giving them too many instructions!
I certainlydon’t regard Septimus as a world beater nor is he in the class of DOM or Henry. I really did not fancy him and reagard him as one of AOB’s lesser lights.
OAB is a very astute trainer and a great tactitioner. I think he has proved himslef time and time again but I believe jockeys are better judges by a mile when it comes to how a horse should be ridden. You can name any seasoned horse you like and a betting shop punter could tell you within minutes how he should be ridden by looking at how he has run best in the past.
Jockey’s can read too
JM replaced by an Ozzie jockey? hope we never see that happenWhat do you do in Murtagh’s position when they have provided you with two pacemakers and a plan?He may well have thought,along with us that they had made a pig’s ear of it,but do you disregard them and incur the wrath of Aidan? Do you remember the last time JM went rogue,with Dylan Thomas in the Derby when O’brien had a proper sulk and sent him to purgatory for getting beaten a lip?
As for the comment about Australian jockeys,what would be lost employing Brown,Oliver,Rodd,Beadman providing you were lucky enough to get them?Stephen Baster did a very capable job on Mahler last year I might point out.
A case of right place, right time for this over rated multiple group one winner. It happens.
There’s a wee bit of a problem with this assessment though. We’re not talking about some ageing sprinter scrambling home in a blanket finish to win a 5F G1 after competing in class 2 handicaps.
Furthermore, we’re not talking about a G1 with a small-field where one jockey sets a slow pace and steals the race by increasing the pace from the front.
We’re not talking about a horse winning a G1 after his nearest market rival gets a stinker of a ride from its jockey.
We’re talking about a horse which won 5 consecutive G1s in three different countries. We can talk about the opposition being poor, about him being lucky. But if the achievement is so unremarkable… well, how many others have done it?
I’m not saying the horse is not a genuine G1 performer. He is, however, when you look back at what he beat it doesn’t read very well. As for winning in three different countries, well all that tells me is that he travels well and manages to get his head in front of other sub standard G1 performers on three different shores
DOM’s lifetime best was getting beat one and a half lengths by Dylan Thomas as a 3yo. After that, it’s beating Pheonix Tower 4 lengths in the POWales. The horse was both lucky and well placed by connections, that’s all. I suppose he could only beat what was put in front of him which CLEARLY wasn’t much.
A case of right place, right time for this over rated multiple group one winner. It happens.
There’s a wee bit of a problem with this assessment though. We’re not talking about some ageing sprinter scrambling home in a blanket finish to win a 5F G1 after competing in class 2 handicaps.
Furthermore, we’re not talking about a G1 with a small-field where one jockey sets a slow pace and steals the race by increasing the pace from the front.
We’re not talking about a horse winning a G1 after his nearest market rival gets a stinker of a ride from its jockey.
We’re talking about a horse which won 5 consecutive G1s in three different countries. We can talk about the opposition being poor, about him being lucky. But if the achievement is so unremarkable… well, how many others have done it?
I’m not saying the horse is not a genuine G1 performer. He is, however, when you look back at what he beat it doesn’t read very well. As for winning in three different countries, well all that tells me is that he travels well and manages to get his head in front of other sub standard G1 performers on three different shores
DOM’s lifetime best was getting beat one and a half lengths by Dylan Thomas as a 3yo. After that, it’s beating Pheonix Tower 4 lengths in the POWales. The horse was both lucky and well placed by connections, that’s all. I suppose he could only beat what was put in front of him which CLEARLY wasn’t much.
So by your reckoning, Zarkava was an average Group One winner, no?
DoM was a very good horse. He had excellent form at a mile as a 3yo and hammered all before him during the summer time. His autumn form is completely irrelevant.
A case of right place, right time for this over rated multiple group one winner. It happens.
There’s a wee bit of a problem with this assessment though. We’re not talking about some ageing sprinter scrambling home in a blanket finish to win a 5F G1 after competing in class 2 handicaps.
Furthermore, we’re not talking about a G1 with a small-field where one jockey sets a slow pace and steals the race by increasing the pace from the front.
We’re not talking about a horse winning a G1 after his nearest market rival gets a stinker of a ride from its jockey.
We’re talking about a horse which won 5 consecutive G1s in three different countries. We can talk about the opposition being poor, about him being lucky. But if the achievement is so unremarkable… well, how many others have done it?
I’m not saying the horse is not a genuine G1 performer. He is, however, when you look back at what he beat it doesn’t read very well. As for winning in three different countries, well all that tells me is that he travels well and manages to get his head in front of other sub standard G1 performers on three different shores
DOM’s lifetime best was getting beat one and a half lengths by Dylan Thomas as a 3yo. After that, it’s beating Pheonix Tower 4 lengths in the POWales. The horse was both lucky and well placed by connections, that’s all. I suppose he could only beat what was put in front of him which CLEARLY wasn’t much.
So by your reckoning, Zarkava was an average Group One winner, no?
DoM was a very good horse. He had excellent form at a mile as a 3yo and hammered all before him during the summer time. His autumn form is completely irrelevant.
Eh?!
I’m not sure what Zarkava has to do with the price of bread, but whilst we’re on the subject, Zarkava was exceptionally brilliant and beat the cream of europe with DOM out of sight. As for ignoring DOM’s last few beatings when up against the best he ever faced….no, I won’t, and why should anyone?A case of right place, right time for this over rated multiple group one winner. It happens.
There’s a wee bit of a problem with this assessment though. We’re not talking about some ageing sprinter scrambling home in a blanket finish to win a 5F G1 after competing in class 2 handicaps.
Furthermore, we’re not talking about a G1 with a small-field where one jockey sets a slow pace and steals the race by increasing the pace from the front.
We’re not talking about a horse winning a G1 after his nearest market rival gets a stinker of a ride from its jockey.
We’re talking about a horse which won 5 consecutive G1s in three different countries. We can talk about the opposition being poor, about him being lucky. But if the achievement is so unremarkable… well, how many others have done it?
I’m not saying the horse is not a genuine G1 performer. He is, however, when you look back at what he beat it doesn’t read very well. As for winning in three different countries, well all that tells me is that he travels well and manages to get his head in front of other sub standard G1 performers on three different shores
DOM’s lifetime best was getting beat one and a half lengths by Dylan Thomas as a 3yo. After that, it’s beating Pheonix Tower 4 lengths in the POWales. The horse was both lucky and well placed by connections, that’s all. I suppose he could only beat what was put in front of him which CLEARLY wasn’t much.
So by your reckoning, Zarkava was an average Group One winner, no?
DoM was a very good horse. He had excellent form at a mile as a 3yo and hammered all before him during the summer time. His autumn form is completely irrelevant.
Eh?!
I’m not sure what Zarkava has to do with the price of bread, but whilst we’re on the subject, Zarkava was exceptionally brilliant and beat the cream of europe with DOM out of sight. As for ignoring DOM’s last few beatings when up against the best he ever faced….no, I won’t, and why should anyone?The comparison was that you said that Duke of Marmalade beat crap horses.
Zarkava beat the cream of Europe did she?
The same Youmzain the Duke of Marmalade beat by a greater margin. Ask who finished 4 lengths behind Zarkava was beaten a few weeks later and was well and truly destroyed by Duke of Marmalade at Ascot.
So if you think that Duke of Marmalde ran to form in either the Arc or the Classic, then you need help. And if you think that Zarkava’s form (not her ability, because noone will ever truly know what that is) was much better than Duke of Marmalade, then I don’t know where to go with this.
To suggest I ‘need help’ whilst debating on, at the end of the day, a meaningless subject as this is a bit ironic.
We don’t agree. Over and out.
I agree with onthesteal and have said it on the ratings thread next door.
The only bit of form which would give him a chance of being rated one of the nest this year would be the international but the only reason he won that was because Bolger and Manning contrived to get New Approach beaten by trying to hold him up..
Otherwise he beat 4yo’s who were not as good as the best of their generation last year. Then he met this years 3yo’s and got stuffed. Properly stuffed.
I thought he was top drawer mid year but i’m happy to revise that opinion with hindsight. Sometimes you have to look at the results as a whole and challenge your own opinion.
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The King George was undoubtedly DOM’s finest hour; Either you accept that Papal Bull ran to his very best in his optimum conditions (Which both his previous runs suggested there was every likelihood of his doing), or you have to accept that every other runner ran well below their best?
Many are writing DOM down purely on the proximity of Papal Bull, yet PB’s form clearly shows he is an improving horse who is better on fast ground. Even his slow ground form confirms this improvement, and he would be just about the first 5yo his trainer had kept in training that hadn’t, (Singspiel, Pilsudski etc, were all kept in training for a reason).
Also it is wrong to suggest that DOM didn’t stay – or wasn’t as good at – 12f. Any horse that can produce more in the dying stages of a truly run 12f gp1 over a stiff course such as Ascot, as he did, has no stamina problems at all at the trip.
One gp1 may be an accident, 2 coincidence, 5 in a row puts it beyond reasonable question, however he’s performed in subsequent races.The same Youmzain the Duke of Marmalade beat by a greater margin
Thats a dreadful yardstick. Nothing was right for Youmzain that day
Papal Bull is possibly an improving horse reet, but i tend to think hes just a bit in and out. At his best, hes right in the mix but if that was really DOM’s "finest hour" its not exactly scintilating is it?
Direct comparisons are tricky and they are both very different animals but to my mind Zarkhava is without doubt the superior horse. Sometimes these judgements are simple and straightforward without needing to resort to collateral form and stopwatches. The fact is that shes simply coasted every challenge and god only knows how much more ability there was to burn. This is significant to me. She never really had to battle down a horse of Papal Bulls status. Im pretty convinced now that shes the finest filly ive seen.
The King George was undoubtedly DOM’s finest hour; Either you accept that Papal Bull ran to his very best in his optimum conditions (Which both his previous runs suggested there was every likelihood of his doing), or you have to accept that every other runner ran well below their best?
Many are writing DOM down purely on the proximity of Papal Bull, yet PB’s form clearly shows he is an improving horse who is better on fast ground. Even his slow ground form confirms this improvement, and he would be just about the first 5yo his trainer had kept in training that hadn’t, (Singspiel, Pilsudski etc, were all kept in training for a reason).
Also it is wrong to suggest that DOM didn’t stay – or wasn’t as good at – 12f. Any horse that can produce more in the dying stages of a truly run 12f gp1 over a stiff course such as Ascot, as he did, has no stamina problems at all at the trip.
One gp1 may be an accident, 2 coincidence, 5 in a row puts it beyond reasonable question, however he’s performed in subsequent races.Alternative Theory – A proper race horse would have beaten DOM; instead Papal Bull pulled himself up. DOM subsequently gets stuffed in the two best G1’s of the year proving that he and the 4yo generation really weren’t that good. Come on Reet i’m not saying he’s not a G1 performer, far from it. What I am saying though is that he is probably slightly flattered by his ratings and I would put him about 5th or 6th in terms of the best european horses this year. (I had similar suspicions about Manduro but never really found out – queue uproar) All of the horse ahead of him would be 3yo’s as well.
Zarkava
Henry
Ravens Pass
New Approach
GoldikovaAll have either beaten him or have collateral form lines that suggest they would beat him. The only anomaly being New Approach who was given an inexplicable ride in the International.
As the St Leger winner, Conduit, was outstanding on the day, it might suggest that the BC Turf was a proper test, but the raft of 10f horses close-up suggests that SOF was done for speed, rather than anything to do with the ground.
Not a proper test ? It certainly was for the Ballydoyle runners.
This was a mile and a half race and the pacesetter , who was closely pursued by SOF, went through the mile marker in rapid time ; top miling time, in fact . Seriously, is there anyone out there who honestly believes that SOF was going to produce a fast final fraction after being asked to do so much hard running early in the race ? If ever a race was set up for the closers this was one. And I may even travel to Europe next year to back SOF to beat Conduit ( I believe they are both staying in training next year, so there is a good chance they’ll meet again ) , because I can’t believe Ballydoyle will get their tactics so badly wrong twice.
One day people will cotton on to what a powerful tool fractional timing actually is .
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As the St Leger winner, Conduit, was outstanding on the day, it might suggest that the BC Turf was a proper test, but the raft of 10f horses close-up suggests that SOF was done for speed, rather than anything to do with the ground.
Not a proper test ? It certainly was for the Ballydoyle runners.
This was a mile and a half race and the pacesetter , who was closely pursued by SOF, went through the mile marker in rapid time ; top miling time, in fact . Seriously, is there anyone out there who honestly believes that SOF was going to produce a fast final fraction after being asked to do so much hard running early in the race ? If ever a race was set up for the closers this was one. And I may even travel to Europe next year to back SOF to beat Conduit ( I believe they are both staying in training next year, so there is a good chance they’ll meet again ) , because I can’t believe Ballydoyle will get their tactics so badly wrong twice.
One day people will cotton on to what a powerful tool fractional timing actually is .
ClintM
Did your fractionals tell you that Soldier Of Fortune needs a really stiff test at 12f to be seen at his best, and the sharp track and fast ground at Santa Anita made it an examination that was never going to be in his favour?
Far from being a tactically inastute ride, both he and his pacemaker were ridden to give him the best possible chance in near impossible circumstances, and his 4th place finish is testament to how close he would have got – however he was ridden – in those circumstances.- Total Posts 17716
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Corm
Is it time to feed the hamster again?
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And I may even travel to Europe next year to back SOF to beat Conduit
Then I’d advise you to stay at home.
Michael Stoute isn’t famous for tilting at windmills, (Conduit being his third winner of the ‘Turf’, though his first 3yo) and the very fact that he stays in training next year is warning enough that the horse has more improvement to come.
As it stands, he is just about the most improved horse in training this season (46lb on official figures), and for a St Leger winner to do what he did in the completely different environs of Santa Anita speaks volumes for his latent class and potential.
At the moment it’s just my opinion, but I’d be fairly certain that SOF, and a number of other classy older horses, won’t see where this horse went, next season.
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