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Fair comment Raymo,but clock watching is an integral part of assessing form for me,but like you say its not the be all and end all of study,theres plenty to work out! Obviously i use it in this case to emphasise just how much better Fame and glory is to the opposition that "beat" him on Sunday! Do you think any of them could clock 2m 30 secs over 11/2m at the Curragh?
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It really gets under my skin when people give no real reason to why time isn’t the most advanced method of analysing a racehorses potential.
There a lot more too it than just looking at raw times.
The wind,the going, the opposition,the need to win by as little as possible to save your horse for the rest of the season(Mick Kinane on Sea the Stars),the need to avoid the handicapper, the style of a horse Zenyatta (lazy). These may not satisfy you but many consider they are valid reasons to overrule timing.
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You wouldn’t use speed ratings to find;
Whos avoiding the handicapper
Whos trying to win as little as possible
The style of horseOnce you have the performance on paper these are the sort of questions you can begin to ask, you cant put these questions into numbers and incoporate that into your formula.
The going, you’re saying that you wouldnt use time to reflect the going? the going is regulary wrong either by management to save face at big meetings or just general lazyness but time will be able to give you a very solid sign of the state of ground providing you have a consistant formula and remove any farsical races both fast and slow for a more positive reading, there are countless goings in the form book that are way off the mark.
The wind I agree effects times but as long as you know where north is on the track and check the strength and direction of the wind the previous night you’ll probally know the effects of tail or head wind in your results the next day, you can tell by the round and straight course sometimes.
Theres a reason why some horses can’t reach certian thresholds, if time was meaningless then Our Kes should have run in the Derby, Muktasb should have run in the Golden Jubilee and Dinner Date would have won the 2000 Guineas
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The problem with using time as a guide is that it doesn’t take account of how the race was run, or the opposition it was run against, (remember Cav Okay, all you clockers?
).
Fame And Glory might have run a fast time in his Irish Derby, but that doesn’t make him a fast horse – indeed there’s a great deal of evidence to the opposite. The race was undoubtedly set up as a strong test of stamina that day, with 2 of his stablemates setting a searing gallop from the off. Unsurprisingly, the first 4 places were filled by strong staying types, 3 of which have proven since to be very ordinary. Comparisons with such as The Minstrel and Sinndar on time alone are lunacy, unless one can be sure the pace and the opposition were also equal.
Fame and Glory’s whole career shows him to need a thorough test of stamina (not many speedy types win 10f races at 2yo), and he remains unlikely to win anything until he gets one.Just saw it for the first time expecting to disagree with the "carpers" but it did look bad. Whether he’s a "whip horse" or not one or two cracks wouldn’t have gone astray and IMO under more vigorous hand riding even he would have nearly won. The deafening silence on it from any of our racing press has also been interesting- if not for this what are those opinion pieces by Messrs Sweetman and O’Hehir in the Post for?
Alan Sweetman wrote about it in his ‘Ireland’s Eye’ column in the post yesterday. His analysis is poorer than anything on these forums though
I know he wrote about it. My point was that he completely avoided the point made here about the ride and merely stated how "disappointing" the performance of the favourite was. Typical supine hack and no less than I’d expect from him.
Agree with carvillshill regarding Sweetman’s take on it. Far easier to suggest the horse was disappointing than criticise those responsible for bringing the horse to the track in a state nowhere near fit enough to do himself justice.
The problem with using time as a guide is that it doesn’t take account of how the race was run, or the opposition it was run against…
It certainly should take the latter into account and can take the former into account with a bit more effort.
Hacks can’t complain in Ireland really.
Most of them are former Jockeys or involved with the Horse Racing community.
Critical of Ballydoyle is something that wouldn’t be the most diplomatic thing to do.
David Duggan on ATR has just excused the ride on the grounds that it was "with the long term in mind, which is always best".
That’s presumably the long term of Fame And Glory and his connections, not Irish racing.
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David Duggan on ATR has just excused the ride on the grounds that it was "with the long term in mind, which is always best".
That’s presumably the long term of Fame And Glory and his connections, not Irish racing.
"Irish Racing"
is
those connections, more or less – once you’ve taken out the Asian and Arabic support. Mr Duggan was wise in his observation.
David Duggan on ATR has just excused the ride on the grounds that it was "with the long term in mind, which is always best".
That’s presumably the long term of Fame And Glory and his connections, not Irish racing.
"Irish Racing"
is
those connections, more or less – once you’ve taken out the Asian and Arabic support. Mr Duggan was wise in his observation.
Harsh Pinza, what about me! I’ve a tenth share in a 2 year old with real prospects this year and we bought a NH yearling at Goffs for €3k in December! Watch this space.
I was at a wedding in Kildare yesterday and got into impassioned debate about this with Tracy Collins. She held the "industry view" that the punter is irrelevant- it’s the horse that counts.
I was at a wedding in Kildare yesterday and got into impassioned debate about this with Tracy Collins. She held the "industry view" that the punter is irrelevant- it’s the horse that counts
Its actually the sport that’s becoming irrelevant, typified by Collins attitude. I presume she has the same opinion of non racehorse owning taxpayers who’ve funded the majority of her prizemoney for the last decade.
Nothing new by Duggan. He was on duty for ATR the night of the Magna Cum Laude fiasco at Tipperary. Say no more….
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Tracey Collins should wake up and realise without the punters she wouldnt have a job.
Yes the horses best interests should always always always come ahead of that of the punter, but to call punters irrelevant is insulting to all here I would imagine.
Lads this thing happens more so in Ireland than anywhere else, I think the lesson for me anyway would be to avoid Irish racing, it produces some brilliant horses but there definitely is a trust issue more so than with UK trainers.
Im Irish by the way but as with a lot of industries in Ireland the racing authorities do certainly appear to be questionable to say the least. Coolmore could, can and will do anything they want and will continue to get away with it. Just the way it is. I would avoid it and concentrate on British racing. Perhaps thats what people are doing, maybe people are sick of Irish racing and how it operates, crowds are way way way way way down, more people at Southwell these day
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