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So, does Timeform etc etc rate Warwick as Heavy or Soft or Heavy with a variance, which is nowhere near Soft ? Now it’s huge BOLLOX.
Paddy Power knocked back my £0.37 bet.
Do you guys have an opinion on their merit in National Hunt as opposed to the Flat? You’ve got me interested now, but should I wait for the Flat season to give him a whirl?
Do you guys have an opinion on their merit in National Hunt as opposed to the Flat? You’ve got me interested now, but should I wait for the Flat season to give him a whirl?
No – the National Hunt ratings are also very useful, with the same caveats expressed earlier on the thread.
The time when I find the Whitley ratings most useful/interesting are precisely when they are telling me a different thing to Timeform. Last week for example his best form ratings for Carruthers and Hills Of Aran were miles clear of Souffleur and Nephunar Collonges in the Grade 2 hurdle at Warwick, whereas Timeform had Souffleur clear top rated with a p.
In terms of ratings, I rate them as superior to Timeform, although I still use Timeform for their comments and also as a likely guide for which horses the market might overrate.
Thedarkknight
I’d be interested to know how Whitley had a rating for Carruthers in Heavy when he had only raced 3 times, in going no worse than Soft. Or was the rating for Good going ?
Paddy Power knocked back my £0.37 bet.
He just gives rates each performance from a time and form perspective. There is no master rating – it is up to the user to decide what to make of the ratings and whether a horse will be effective on the ground.
Prufrock
IMO Timeform is stuck in a time warp and traditional pounds-per-length type handicapping is still their game. By utilising a different approach taking a lot more variables into account it is possible to beat Timeform ratings easily. Of course Timeform do not publish basic information on how their headline ratings perform.
Thedarkknight
IMO Carruthers rating should have been – NO AVAILABLE DATA for the conditions.
Paddy Power knocked back my £0.37 bet.
Quadrilla
As I stated earlier – if you want one "solve all" rating for each horse in a race then the Whitleys will be of limited use to you.
If you want another powerful tool to add to your your form analysis in a race, then I think they are excellent.
There was plenty of other evidence to suggest that Carruthers would act on the ground and the fact that his form had possibly been seriously underrated made him of interest…
quadrilla
That is a laughable statement. The state of the ground is only one variable. None of the horses in the race were proven in the conditions i.e. in 3 mile Grade 2 novice hurdles on heavy going around Warwick on Saturday afternoons.
quadrilla
That is a laughable statement. The state of the ground is only one variable. None of the horses in the race were proven in the conditions i.e. in 3 mile Grade 2 novice hurdles on heavy going around Warwick on Saturday afternoons.
None proven under conditions, means stick a pin in and hope your on right one
If a horse has run a very good figure on soft ground and is related to horses who have thrived on heavy going, it isn’t exactly pinsticking to think it might act under the conditions.
davidjohnson
I beg to differ.
Warwick 13th January 2007 – Saturday
Conditions Heavy
2:30 Ballymore Properties Leamington Novices’ Hurdle Grade 2 (Class 1) (4yo+) 9 hdles 2 omitted 2m5f
3rd Hills Of Aran @ 33/1
Paddy Power knocked back my £0.37 bet.
If a horse has run a very good figure on soft ground and is related to horses who have thrived on heavy going, it isn’t exactly pinsticking to think it might act under the conditions.
TDK, i couldn’t think of a better way to put it mate , so don’t take comment " stick a pin in " literally
What i’m trying to say, is your betting on loads of unknowns, so how can you possibly make a decent estimation of probability.
You can’t, can you??
You can make as educated guess as you can as to the horses’ respective chances, empty. Even with a few unknowns I still think you can get pretty close to each horse’s actual chance in a race like this.
You can make as educated guess as you can as to the horses’ respective chances, empty. Even with a few unknowns I still think you can get pretty close to each horse’s actual chance in a race like this.
I agree you can make an educated guess, but surely TDK, if your betting serious amounts these are not good bets and they are probably best passed over
"davidjohnson":3ifjhtv0 wrote:
Timeform may say about such horses "acts on good or softer", but in truth for some the softer it gets the better their chance.
davidjohnson wrote:
That isn’t strictly true. Timeform never say a horse acts on good ground, there is an assumption that all horses act on good ground. More likely is that a comment may say ‘raced on good or softer’ and then qualify it with an ‘(acts on soft)’ or ‘(acts on heavy)’ where appropriate.
Regarding the point you develop, is that because certain horses run to a higher rating the softer the ground is, or is it that the horses chance of winning increases in softer ground because he handles conditions better than a number of it’s opponents. If it’s the latter, which I would say it is 9 times out of 10, armed with the information of other horses ground preferences from their comments, and I still think you have all the pieces of the jigsaw.
DJ
They may not say this now, and I am probably wrong in using the word "acts". I have never been a fan of Timeform’s arcane descriptions. I can remember they used to say something very similar about several sprinters who I kept my eye on. One was Fire Dome. The exact description in his case was "best form at 6f on good ground or softer" or "best on good or softer".
Having all the pieces of the jigsaw is certainly an idea that attracts me. Unfortunately it is not something that happens much in sprint handicaps.
If the average horse goes 10% slower on heavy going and your horse goes 8% slower in a 6f race that is 7 or 8 lengths. There are huge turnarounds in form because the variations are greater than that. The problem with heavy ground is that many sprinters rarely race on it, and you can get surprises. I would say it is a bit of both of your theories in that even of those horses who have good form on soft ground, some are especially favoured the softer it gets. That is where your edge comes if there is one.Although I have subscribed to Computer Timeform from day one, Timeform has not moved on. In fact I think it has gone backwards. Having a share in the occasional racehorse over the years has made me realise how wide of the mark Timeform’s conclusions can be and how the mistakes are repeated year after year despite evidence to the contrary. As an example they had Tribal Prince down as acting on Good/Soft for 3 years when he in fact needed fast ground, ideally like a road. This was because they overrated his 2YO form on easy ground. With Whitley’s continously recalculated ratings that soon became clear. Timeform also never twigged that he had to come wide due to being intimidated by other horses (he was hit over the head with a whip on his debut bursting through a narrow gap). Perhaps asking too much for them to appreciate that, but the ground requirements were basic stuff.
You can make as educated guess as you can as to the horses’ respective chances, empty. Even with a few unknowns I still think you can get pretty close to each horse’s actual chance in a race like this.
I agree you can make an educated guess, but surely TDK, if your betting serious amounts these are not good bets and they are probably best passed over
We are going to have to agree to differ on this one Charlie.
If the average horse goes 10% slower on heavy going and your horse goes 8% slower in a 6f race that is 7 or 8 lengths. There are huge turnarounds in form because the variations are greater than that. The problem with heavy ground is that many sprinters rarely race on it, and you can get surprises. I would say it is a bit of both of your theories in that even of those horses who have good form on soft ground, some are especially favoured the softer it gets. That is where your edge comes if there is one.- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.