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I’ve gone back to Deep Purple. Although it’s a double-figure field, I think it’ll be a lot like Cheltenham where he doesn’t even see half-a-dozen of them. He loves this kind of track and will improve quite a bit from Cheltenham, first run back from a broken blood vessel.
I can’t have Albertas Run on the ground, Monet’s Garden’s form doesn’t stack up IMO (Albertas Run must be at least a stone worse on ground with give it in), Tartak was smashed by Deep Purple in the Peterborough in receipt of 10lbs, can’t possibly back ForPadyDePlasterer to win (miracle he won the Arkle IMO, and that comes from someone who backed him 2 months prior) and I’m not sure about Kalahari King. Poquelin’s the one I’m concerned about.
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I am leaning toward Forpady cos the trends imply that a good Champion Chase run is a plus!! BUT and its a big but the trip is unknown to Forpady regarding winning!!
So then you look at Ryanair form which is also rleevant and that brings most of the others into the picture. Sorry if I am rambling but I am typing out loud and having seen Schindlers Hunt run so well in this last year I think it is a huge price and if it jumps round cleanly then it has to have a chance!!
Kalahari is a horse that I am not keen on given its habit of staying on from a way back which is not an advantage round here!
Albertas Run won nicely at Cheltenham and I backed it so am not talking out of turn here when I say on this track it wants further!!
Deep Purple is not good enough in this grade!!
Poquelin has found his level and in this class will always find one or two too good.
Tartak and Mahogany Blaze arent good enough.
Oh Crick has no form over this trip
Monets Garden loves it round here and is a big price
And finally Jack The Giant has it to do on the ratings
but could turn out to be useful gven time.
In conclusion Monets Garden and Schindlers Hunt are the value!! IMOI came to the same conclusion, so i hope you’re right.
I’ll be playing Jack The Giant each way. Ran a cracker at Chelters, after God knows how long off. Hopefully he’ll strip fitter at a nice price.
All bar Monet’s Garden and the 2001 winner (Native Upmanship I think?) ran at the Festival, obviously the circumstances for the latter precluded him from doing so. That actually makes no difference to the field since all the runners bar Monet’s Garden ran at the Festival.
10 of the 11 were aged between 8 and 11. Voy Por Ustedes won it as a 7yo but he faced a tiny and substandard field. The only opponent of worth was Master Minded who patently didn’t stay.
7 of the 11 winners had run in the Queen Mother, 2 had run in the Ryanair (obviously the Ryanair’s only existed for a few years, Hi Cloy in 2006 and VPU last year were the Ryanair runners), 1 missed the Festival because of foot and mouth and Monet’s Garden swerved it. It’s fair to say that the race runs more like 2 miles than 2 miles 4f, given the tight turns of Aintree, so you want a speedster more than a stayer.
Of the 9 who ran at the Festival, 8 of them finished in the top 3. Hi Cloy was the exception, who finished 6th.
10 of the 11 had won a Grade 1 (exception had won a Grade 1 and was 2nd in a Grade 1).
10 of the 11 had had 3-5 runs, the exception once again being Hi Cloy with 7.
These trends actually leave Albertas Run as the sole pick, but as I said before, I cannot possibly have him on the ground.
The first to go are Poquelin, Oh Crick and Tartak due to age. Tartak didn’t run in a Graded race at Cheltenham, he’s had 6 runs this year and he’s not a non-novice Grade 1/2 winner. Oh Crick’s simply not good enough while Poquelin hasn’t won a Grade 1/2 as well. I realise that’s harsh given he’s only had 1 attempt, but his handicap form hasn’t really stood up.
Schindler’s Hunt is simply not good enough – was struggling badly at Cheltenham and hasn’t even won a non-handicap outside novice company. Same goes for Mahogany Blaze, not won since his novice days while Jack The Giant is probably shy of top class as well. He’s also only a handicap winner.
Kalahari King falls down on the non-novice Grade 1/2 and also the amount of runs. ForPadyDePlasterer also falls down on the non-novice Grade 1/2, although he has finished 2nd in 2 Grade 1s.
Albertas Run’s done nothing wrong but his only Graded victory with ‘soft’ in the title was in the R&SA on ‘good to soft’, which it probably wasn’t.
Monet’s Garden’s there on all trends bar age, but he’s prone to a bad race now and again and he is a lot better coming off a big break.
Deep Purple’s record on flat tracks is 11P21P, with both of the Ps coming at Kempton after breaks of 8 and 14 days. He’s way ahead of ForPadyDePlasterer on a line through Herecomesthetruth (which also puts him ahead of Kalahari King) and I just think he’s a great each-way bet, with Monet’s Garden the 2nd best.
So, cue Mahogany Blaze winning it.
Had a small ew on Monet’s Garden but wish I hadn’t, because it’s not about money today, I just want him to win.
I would love to see a return to form for Jack The Giant, I think he will have a great eway chance, shaped nicely at Cheltenham.
JohnJ
For 2 years I’ve been slagging off Albertas Run!!! He completely saved my Festival last month with a score on at 16s and £80 at 8s + a £5 double with General Miller has completely saved me again!!! Fast ground and this horse is incredible!!!
Sorry for that very enthustiastic, hypocritical post. I ‘attacked’ a member the other day for boasting about wins, but that win was just a colossal relief for me. I ummed and ahhhed about that race for probably 3 hours and just went for Albertas in the end. Just a huge, huge relief, especially after General Miller earlier. I had £50 on him at Cheltenham at 50s and he unseated at the first so was slightly annoyed about having a far lesser sum on him this time.
Have to agree Zark!!
Vintage McCoy!!
Monets set it up for him though!!
So many jumping errors in behind.
Thank God Forpady didnt quite get home!!
Backed Monets,Albertas Run and Schindlers(R.I.P) and a combo forecast and exacta so profitable race!!Big shame about Schindlers though
That looked a real real real real tough race.
Jumping was pretty poor for Champsionship horses.
Great horse that Alberta’s run a working class animal nothing flashy but really gets the job done
Ah poor Schindler’s Hunt, just read that now. Really horrible for connections. Not a flashy horse, but a model of consistence and it is a shame he never got his head in front in a Graded chase.
At the end of the day, 8/1 was just too big a price!
Funny thing was, I was going to be on Forpadydeplasterer…but then I remembered people on here talking about Alberta’s Run, saw the prices, and changed my mind.
Thanks, guys
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
Well with Monet’s Garden in a line up all jumping flaws will be exposed, many horses have made serious errors this season with him leading a relentless gallop.
On days when I question my love of racing, I watch a horse like Monet’s Garden and realise why I always come back to it. He is what the winter sport is all about.
Well done to those who backed Albertas Run.
He certainly isn’t flashy but is top class.
Excellent double with general Miller there, Zarkarva.
Now on to more serious matters…
Kalahari NEVER falls..*much gnashing of teeth.* My £20 EW lasted about 20 seconds…I would get more for my money in Amsterdam.
I can’t help feeling that he was ready to run a very big race.
I thought Forpady stayed well – just beaten by a better beast.
Was a cracking race to watch, though – Monet’s was glorious in front and really battled for third.
Oh well.
Zip
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