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As always seems to happen when you point out somebody is totally out of form, the floodgates open about five minutes afterwards.
It would make a soectacularly successful system
Thought to myself, that’s a good word, must look it up to see what it means.
Can I have a "p" please Joe?Saying "Jonjo is in poor form" has been spectacularly right for a long time. His horses will probably pay to follow in the coming weeks. Stable now in good form and better handicaped horses with (from the last few months) reduced marks. In these circumstances poor last time out form means less.
Value Is EverythingMeant to say Joectacularly, Ging
Doubtless, JJ’s runners will now be priced accordingly
It’s hard enough second guessing that yard when the winners are flowing but even harder when it’s on the way back from such a poor spell.
Now they’ve had a few winners watch the oddsmakers overreact over the next week or two.
Wouldn’t go backing Jonjo blindly, in my experience bookies react but – for a while anyway – in many cases they don’t react enough. Most trainers are in between (not in or out of form). However, those who are in form or out of form has a massive impact on the true chance of any horse. Although it is imo a misunderstood and misrepresented science.
Value Is EverythingTrainers are also real creatures of habit and over the years I’ve noticed Jonjo seems to target the Warwick Pertemps qualifier. The 10lb claimer was a plus too.
I notice Warren Greatrex has hit a sticky patch the last couple of weeks. His odds on favourite, Shantou Bob, was stuffed the Graded Novice Hurdle at Warwick yesterday. Twenty four runners in the last 2 weeks all beaten.
When these bigger yards go through these spells I stay well clear of them, even when there’s evidence that the bad spell looks to be over. You just don’t know how each horse has been affected by the virus and how they will react when put under race conditions. I might miss out on a couple of winners but over the long term it’s safer to monitor a yard coming out of a dry spell.
With regard to positive trainer form I prefer to analyse a longer time frame than just a couple of weeks. For example it’s no coincidence that Nicholls has won the last couple of weekends major staying chases with Hawkes Point and Unioniste. Earlier in the season Hobbs seemed to be in the winners enclosure every weekend with Nicholls not far behind. His runners continue to run well but not as hot as say a few months ago. Compare that to Henderson who’s runners are so in and out this season.
I notice Warren Greatrex has hit a sticky patch the last couple of weeks. His odds on favourite, Shantou Bob, was stuffed the Graded Novice Hurdle at Warwick yesterday. Twenty four runners in the last 2 weeks all beaten.
I thought Warrantor would go close in the Lanzarote yesterday but he went out like a light after seeming to travel well early.
The trainer’s wife was on CH4 just before the Lanzarote hurdle and stated that if there were two horses in the yard who would give their life for you, they were Warrantor and Shantou Bob. Of course, Sod’s law dictates that, after you say something like that, they both run like a Lada with three flat tyres.
I checked the stats just after Warrantor’s poor run and noticed they had had several horses beaten a long way and an odds-on shot turned over in recent days. Luckily for me there was no money on Warrantor but it served as a lesson to check everything
before
sticking money on a selection.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
The Veterinary Officer reported that SHANTOU BOB (IRE), placed third, had bled from the nose.
That explains his poor run
The Veterinary Officer reported that SHANTOU BOB (IRE), placed third, had bled from the nose.
That explains his poor run
The trainer was keen to deny rumours that Shantou Bob bled
before
the race. According to him the horse had a small amount of blood but only in one nostril and that the blood had definitely
not
come from the lungs. His own theory is that the horse has a slight wind problem, which is perhaps something to consider if thinking about backing him next time.
NB, Sorry, I had a rush of crap to the head there, it was a slight
wind
problem that the trainer feels may be the cause, and not muscular as first stated here.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Richard Hannon’s ex horse Sebastian Beach will win next time out.
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That’s what AP told me moments after I had backed him at Exeter
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http://i60.tinypic.com/fa9e3c.jpg
disclaimer
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Written between the stars is a load of bull
Told you it was a load of bull.
He really said ‘he’ll lose next time out but back him at Chepstow’
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Can I have a "p" please Joe?
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