JLT Handicap, Newbury

[Nausered]

I’ve already had a decent bet in this, under ante post rules for Making Miracles. I want to have more, but I’m very worried that he needs six to come out above him. Two of those are Johnston horses as well, neither has been jocked up yet. Making Miracles has been. What do you lot recon? Will he get a run?

I’ve taken 8’s (which is still there), he’s as low as 11-2 & 6’s elsewhere, and if he gets in I think his price will crash a bit. I want to have a really good bet. I’m not an ante post placer normally this early in the week, what are his chances do you think of getting into the race?

https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/36/newbury/2018-07-21/705720

[jackh1092]

It would be strange to jock him up and then not run?

Not really watched things like that before to see if it happens often though..

Stratum ran v well at Ascot, i wouldnt back him at the price, but has to be a danger to all! I backed Amazing Red in the Plate and would say he’ll be better back on turf…

Twitter: Jackh1092
Hindsight is 20/20 so make the most of it!

[KevMc]

If he ends up being balloted out you get your cash back Nausered. What I would watch though is that he is entered in the listed race on Friday aswell although I do expect Johnston to send him here as that race is only 11F.

I’ve been waiting on one for a while that looks like turning up here.

Quloob 10/1 e/w.

Strong form last season behind Dubawi Fifty and he shaped nicely on return as if the next day would see him step up again. Burrows has him in the Ebor which could show intent and I think he can go close here.

[Nausered]

Thanks Jack & Kev. Very strangely, it was going to be a 19 runner field yesterday according to RP when I placed my bet, but today it’s showing it will be an 18 runner field max. I think I’m going to back him again now. There’s still fourteen above him who are not jocked up, including two other Johnston runners… And this fast ground will surely keep a good few away.

You’ve both mentioned the two horses who I also think will be the other main players here, both are being backed too.

I often struggle to get the Johnston horses right, but Making Miracles is one, so far this year I have been getting right. With the full allowance over 2m, if he gets in, I don’t think they will see which way he went here.

[raymo61]

Good Luck Nausered. Personally I have my eye on two in this AMAZING RED 10/1 with Frankie on again like when he absolutely dotted up at Newmarket but is ten pounds higher here.

and PERCY’S WORD of Simon Crisford who has his horses in great form and if it turns up here will start less than the current 16/1!!

[Nausered]

Thanks, and good luck you too Raymo!

It’s my very most favourite and normally profitable time of the whole year. I love the month after Royal Ascot, the 3yo’s stepping into open handicaps with the big allowances. I fortunately backed Misty Spirit yesterday at Chelmsford, at a very generous 13-1 (Lads boost). I very nearly talked myself out of it though, and only ended up placing half stakes as the stable looked a bit out of form.

I’m always looking for Johnston’s best handicap 3yo’s over staying trips into open company, at this time of year. Making Miracles screamed to me he needed 2m before RA, I backed him very heavily stepped up to 1m6f last time in a fairly hot 3yo handicap at Haydock. He went through that race like a very nice horse indeed, he loved the step up in trip. A strapping 3yo, If he gets in, off 8-1 here, he’s going to be a blot on the handicap I feel. I think he’s value for a good bit more than his mark of 98 yet. He’s getting more than a stone from Quloob and the other older horses who are also rated 98 here. The Mullins horse is jocked up, he must have a good chance too.

That weight allowance over 2m is monstrous though, the longer the distance, the bigger the advantage is. A strapping 3yo has a very unfair advantage over staying trips right now with the WFA as it is. I’ve backed him heavily now, just need him to get into the race, or I’ll be crying

[Nausered]

Well I am very glad now I did steam in again at 8’s with bet365 a couple of hours ago. He’s now into top price 6’s with them looking just now, only 4’s with Corals (Hi Lostsoldier ).

The weights will hopefully rise, and Johnston obviously thought this too. He’s booked Kingscote, who’s lowest riding weight is 8-8 in past 12 months. Top weight Nakeeta is not jocked up, and Johnston has the next two in the weights. Could well be Amazing Red off top weight, but that only means a 4lb rise in the weights as I see it. Surely he would not leave Kingscote on under those circumstances and it would be step up Fran Norton?

[Nausered]

All change. Fanning now down as the jockey (lowest riding weight 8-0), now only seven above him who are not jocked up.

I’m leaning more towards that he will not get in now personally, he needs all seven of those to pull out. Buick is booked for the Sheik owned Johnston horse, so that one will not be getting pulled now for MM.

If he does not get in, you lots bets will be far better off I’d say.

[Nausered]

Gutted, he did not make it. Good luck all with your wagers.

Thank you for that info earlier Kevin, my entire stakes were refunded by bet365.

Looking at the race again after final decs, I’ve had a go on the Gosden 3yo Almoghared @ 8-1. Smaller stakes, as I fear he will not be as street wise as MM would have been. But he ran exceptionally well in a G2 at RA, looked like he needed 2m too. He’s not going to be a handicapper you’d imagine, so off 8-6 here, I’m happy to have a play. Crowley is on the other Hamdan horse, but he can’t do 8-6. I prefer Atzeni anyways. I’ve split my stakes, so I can cash one out if I fancy, when the price inevitably crashes on Saturday, hopefully get a free bet at it.

[botchy1]

Had a couple of bets on Buzz to win this. Think he could be quite progressive and the form of his first race this year is working out really well.

He beat Dash of Spice who then went on to win handicaps at Epsom and Royal Ascot. Also behind was Cosmelli who beat Euchan Glen in the Northumberland Plate.

First try above 12F which he gets fine, so a leap of faith about this 2 Mile trip.

[Middle_Of_March]

I have dutched Stratum (9/2) and Algomhared (9/1) here

[Author]

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