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DREAM CASTLE 8/1
Trained by Bin Suroor been beat by Barney Roy twice now so doubt owner run him in St James palace. and while owner got Commenwealth cup hope in Blue Point so this 7f trip should be ideal and if he wins then after this race then step him up in trip.
Dream Castle will be a contender Darren. I was a bit surprised to see Daban favourite for this as I am not sure how strong the fillies’ form will be.
I like the look of Andre Fabre’s Le Brivido here. He has form at 6F, so won’t lack for pace, in addition, he damn near went and won the French 2000 Guineas, going 3 lengths clear of Rivet in the closing stages. He’s a short head away from being a Group 1, Classic, winner running in Group 3 company now.
The horse Le Brivido beat in his previous race, at 6F, was boosted when runner up Aladdine won her next two starts, including a Group 3, so surely, by Mick Fitzgerald’s standards at least, the form has been “Franked”
Andre Fabre confirmed during the interview where he stated Waldgeist would miss Breakfast With The Stars, that Le Brivido would go to the Jersey Stakes next. It is not hard for me to envisage Le Brivido at half the current odds, so I’m on him at 7/1.
7/1 seems a big price for a horse only caught late last time at a mile in a Classic, when he has good form over 6F as well. He’d be my idea of a good bet.
Le Brivido 7/1
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Generally 5/1 for Le Brivido now.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Dream Castle has been backed in but Le Brivido got a form boost today when Brametot landed the French Derby.
If it is yielding ground at Ascot I think the French horse will be tough to beat.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I am surprised there is little interest in the Jersey Stakes this year.
Looking at the field a good lot of them look out of their depth here. Chessman and Winning Ways both looked to me that their best chance lay in handicaps this week.
Daban will be trying to give Winter a form boost but I have been a bit disappointed by several of John Gosden’s early season winning fillies going forward. Shutter Speed was a bit tame in the French Oaks today and others have been pretty rank after looking really promising earlier. She’s not for me at 5/1 against colts now.
Dream Castle looked superb on debut and then looked like he would storm home in the Greenham but Barney Roy wore him down as the son of Frankel seemed to weaken. I felt he was unlikely to stay in the Guineas but he ran a totally different style of race that day, puzzlingly being nearest at the finish, coming past beaten horses. I just wonder which way he will go now for the enigmatic Godolphin outfit who seem to think short term too much.
I did Le Brivido at 7/1 and he’s generally shading favouritism over Dream Castle at about 3/1 now. His short head runner up to Brametot in the French Guineas looks the strongest form here and Andre Fabre is in pretty good form just now.
Good luck to Darren at 8/1 with Dream Castle, those odds are ancient history now and he’s the only one I really fear against my pick.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well done lads on getting decent prices on the main principles. You’ve given yourselves plenty of leeway to get involved again.
This year’s Jersey looks like a decent renewal with plenty of Classic form on offer.
The French colt will face completely different ground conditions to what he handled in what was a week renewal of the Poulains and with that in mind, Le Brivido is a favourite I’m willing to take on. Dream Castle looks the obvious alternative and he’s been given a break to get over his busy spring. He’s not the most straightforward though and I think he’s probably better with a bit of give in the ground; being drawn out in 19 probably isn’t a help either. Daban runs under a penalty but she goes well on the ground and, by getting within 2 lengths of Winter, has showed she’s more than capable of winning a race like this. Of those at the head of the betting, the filly is who I’d rather be with (6/1 with Ladbrokes and Corals).
And the bigger odds, I’ve gone in with Escobar at 25/1. He tanked his way through the Heron Stakes 4 weeks ago and showed a good turn of foot, looking like 7 furlongs will be his optimum trip. The quicker the surface the better for him and just looks way too overpriced given the class he showed as a 2 year old and Hugo Palmer’s horses seem to be coming to the boil.
Stevecaution is a judge. Well played with that 7/1. Le Brivido is an ultra-solid favourite with the French Classics working out so well this year. The ground should hold no terrors given his action and how he has already adapted to three different surfaces in three starts. There isn’t much value left in the price but I’d prefer to take that 7/2 rather than 4/1 Dream Castle.
Dream Castle feels like the makeweight in Godolphin’s plans. Not good enough to beat Blue Point over 6 or Barney Roy at 1m, so have to go 7. As he’s another one of those fruitcake Frankels you have to steer clear I think.There isn’t any value in Daban‘s price at the moment either. She’s a notch below the best fillies for all that 7f should suit her. I’ll be disappointed if there aren’t a couple good enough to beat her.
Mubtasim was arguably the moral second-best in the Pavillion Stakes on Discover Ascot day but I wasn’t convinced with the way he finished off behind Harry Angel at Haydock. What have you done Mr Haggas?
You usually need to be a G1 level horse to win this race so Whitecliffsofdover looks too short for a horse that has been ironed-out often enough at the top level. Likewise Taamol with the ground against him.
One longshot I may play each-way, 4 and 3 places on the day could be Beat The Bank. He’s a straightforward type and should be seen to good advantage by racing handily. Andrew Balding’s horses have all improved dramatically from run 1 to run 2 this season so I’d expect a career-best from this one. He beat the well-regarded Salsabeel last time with much of the post-race focus on how Godolphin’s runner failed to handle the track at Newmarket. Watch the replay and you’ll see that Beat The Bank rolled around and became unbalanced too. Salsabeel failed to frank the form in France last time but you can’t blaim a son of Exceed And Excel for flopping on soft ground.
No bets yet but I may have a token sum on Le Brivido is a firm sticks their neck out and goes 4/1. Also derivatives bingo with Beat The Bank.
Well done lads on getting decent prices on the main principles. You’ve given yourselves plenty of leeway to get involved again.
This year’s Jersey looks like a decent renewal with plenty of Classic form on offer.
The French colt will face completely different ground conditions to what he handled in what was a week renewal of the Poulains and with that in mind, Le Brivido is a favourite I’m willing to take on. Dream Castle looks the obvious alternative and he’s been given a break to get over his busy spring. He’s not the most straightforward though and I think he’s probably better with a bit of give in the ground; being drawn out in 19 probably isn’t a help either. Daban runs under a penalty but she goes well on the ground and, by getting within 2 lengths of Winter, has showed she’s more than capable of winning a race like this. Of those at the head of the betting, the filly is who I’d rather be with (6/1 with Ladbrokes and Corals).
And the bigger odds, I’ve gone in with Escobar at 25/1. He tanked his way through the Heron Stakes 4 weeks ago and showed a good turn of foot, looking like 7 furlongs will be his optimum trip. The quicker the surface the better for him and just looks way too overpriced given the class he showed as a 2 year old and Hugo Palmer’s horses seem to be coming to the boil.
Weak renewal? The pair were three lengths clear of the third, it was six lengths further back to the 4th and the winner went on to win the French Derby. If that’s weak, I’ll take weak form all day LOL
I liked Escobar last season but he flopped in the Tattersalls. I toyed with backing him on his comeback but I am generally wary of the Palmer stable at the moment and I was at that time as well. He ran very well but there’s always the lingering worry of a bounce. I did feel he might be a Guineas horse in time but he’s got a little to prove now but there is no doubt he made a nice return to racing.
I agree with Last Soldier Three on Whitecliffsofdover. There was a bit of excitement and declaring that War Front’s do train on when he landed the Free Handicap. However, he was bitterly disappointing in Listed company next time, when 8/13 Fav and only 3rd. More worrying is that the Free Handicap has worked out bloody awfully, with 10 subsequent runs showing 1 place and 9 unplaced on their next start. Pitiful form for a race seen as a trial for the 2000 Guineas in days gone by. Beaten by horses rated 95 and 97 last time, Whitecliffsofdover’s raised rating of 114 for winning the Free Handicap looks a classic handicapping error. There has not been one iota of subsequent form to suggest that it was anything other than a case of him beating rubbish on the day and that nothing else really ran to their previous mark that day.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Only horse i have backed for this is Le Brivido as soon as the prices came out with BFSB
I was probably being a bit harsh but I don’t believe the French 3 year old division is very strong. Le Brivido may well win as this isn’t a Group 1 and deserves to be favourite but I have my doubts about the ground and on a more basic level whether he’s even good enough. As I said, I appreciate this is not a Group 1 though and I’m not ruling out having a saver on the French challenger to avoid looking like a fool if he wins.
Only horse i have backed for this is Le Brivido as soon as the prices came out with BFSB
Take very good care of that Betfair Sportsbook account, botchy!
My 100% Book:
Dream Castle 100/30, Le Brevido 7/2, Daban 17/2, Whitecliffsofdover 15/2, Winning Ways 10/1, Chessman 25/1, Taamol 25/1, Escobar 33/1, Mubtasim 33/1, Parfait 33/1, Beat The Bank 40/1, Sir Dancealot 50/1, Glastonbury Song 66/1, Top Score 100/1, Spirit Of Valor 125/1, Solomon’s Bay 125/1, Sutter County 300/1, True Valour 400/1, Bacchus 500/1, Barrington 2000/1.Value Is EverythingStill with Daban (7/1) and Escobar (25/1) but have added Dream Castle at 4/1 to smaller stakes as the Godolphin team look to have their horses firing on all cylinders and the Greenham form’s been boosted. I’ve been handed out a few free bets too recently so have chucked them on Le Brivido to cover about 80% of my stake so I feel I’ve got quite a few bases covered.
I’m finding this really difficult to decipher, and I’m unable to choose between Le Brivido, Dream Castle and Daban.
Gone for an each-way punt on Solomon’s Way. He looked pretty tough at Epsom last time out so hoping he can get his nose in somewhere near the front.
My 100% Book:
Dream Castle 100/30, Le Brevido 7/2, Daban 17/2, Whitecliffsofdover 15/2, Winning Ways 10/1, Chessman 25/1, Taamol 25/1, Escobar 33/1, Mubtasim 33/1, Parfait 33/1, Beat The Bank 40/1, Sir Dancealot 50/1, Glastonbury Song 66/1, Top Score 100/1, Spirit Of Valor 125/1, Solomon’s Bay 125/1, Sutter County 300/1, True Valour 400/1, Bacchus 500/1, Barrington 2000/1.If Le Brevido is equally effective at 7f on quick ground will be hard to beat. Big enough ifs for me to look elsewere at the price.
Dream Castle seems to go well on a firm surface and likely to improve again stepped back in trip. Looked the winner of the Greenham before Barney Roy’s stamina kicked in; pair going clear. If settling I expect a good run.
Daban should be as effective at 7f – travelled well in the 1000. Gosden is in reasonable form, but not in the outstanding nick he’s been some years. Wonder if others have more improvement in them.
Whitecliffsofdover disappointed on soft ground last time out (by War Front). Before that won Free Handicap over this trip. Good looking well bred individual who could improve again.
Winning Ways worth a chance @ 16/1. Won an Ascot handicap off a mark of only 85 with a lot to spare (upped 16 lbs since). Did wander in closing stages and is by Lope De Vega so ground worries, but if acting on this surface could improve significantly for an in form trainer.
Sir Dancealot looked a sprinter/7f horse as a two year old; winning the listed Rockingham in fine style. On looks should make a better 3 year old but has flopped so far. That came when Elsey was in poor form and strong signs the yard is over what ailed them. Doesn’t have a great chance – I rate it only 2% – but that makes him a fair 50/1 and 139/1 is available. Worth a few quid. Remember Elsworth’s Arabian Queen 100/1+. :lol:Backed (all “main bets”) Dream Castle @ 4/1, Whitecliffsofdover @ 10/1, Winning Ways @ 16/1 and a speculative Sir Dancealot @ 139/1.
Value Is Everything
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