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Newmarket going allowance
-0.36s/f
(good to soft)
Working on the speed figures I had
Ivawood
equalling his best figure of
89
Ivawood:
17Oct14 Nmk 6Sft C12yG1 123K 2/6 (nse, Charming Thought9-0) 1/2F
89
31Jul14 Goo 6GF C12yG2 45K 1/8 (4½L, Louie De Palma9-0) 2/5F
89
10Jul14 Nmk 6GF C12yG2 45K 1/12 (2¾L, Jungle Cat9-0) 3/1F
87
13Jun14 San 5Gd C52yMd 3K 1/7 (2¼L, Magical Memory9-5) 8/11F
68
Charming Thought:
17Oct14 Nmk 6Sft C12yG1 123K 1/6 (nse, Ivawood9-0) 22/1
89
22Sep14 Lei 6GF C42yNv 6K 1/4 (½L, Surewecan9-5) 10/11F
54
03Sep14 Lin 6Gd C52yMd 3K 1/9 (2L, Kinematic9-0) 4/11F
65
15Aug14 Not 6GF C52yMd 3K 2/7 (½L, Flash Fire9-5) 2/1
68
Agreed, Nathan.
Ivawood ran fine, the more you watch it and butter it up he just simply ran fine but is less effective on softer ground.
I think Charming Thought has been a bit understated as well in fairness. Those behind the front pair have run up to scratch generally. CT tracked Ivawood through the race reasonably comfortably overall and had enough to quicken and gun him down.
RP has them running to 117,117, 113, 112, 109, 107 which seems fair enough.
I have my doubts that Cappello Sansevero and Kool Kompany ran to their best today. Both horses have been out since April and had plenty of races through the season. Both runners had been off for six weeks and perhaps you can argue the stables went to the well once to often in soft ground at the fag end of the season.
Charming Thought needs to have made a huge jump in form to make it stack up and although the Blues Brother’s figures have Ivawood running equal to his best, they also show a much improved figure for Charming Thought compared to what he had previously recorded.
Channel 4 seemed to be keen to declare that Godolphin were "Back" with their first Group 1 of the season and have now got a Classic contender on their hands, all on the heads of one win, by a nose, in mud in a back end race with a few spent looking contenders in arrears.
I’ll postpone the Coronation until Charming Thought wins his first Classic and stay with the feeling that Ivawood won’t hit the top at a mile next season. It is not that I think his bubble burst in the Middle Park but some air was let out of it. If he trains on he could be a top flight sprinter but as we saw with Toormore this season, it’s not a given.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Agreed, Nathan.
Ivawood ran fine, the more you watch it and butter it up he just simply ran fine but is less effective on softer ground.
I think Charming Thought has been a bit understated as well in fairness. Those behind the front pair have run up to scratch generally. CT tracked Ivawood through the race reasonably comfortably overall and had enough to quicken and gun him down.
RP has them running to 117,117, 113, 112, 109, 107 which seems fair enough.
I have my doubts that Cappello Sansevero and Kool Kompany ran to their best today. Both horses have been out since April and had plenty of races through the season. Both runners had been off for six weeks and perhaps you can argue the stables went to the well once to often in soft ground at the fag end of the season.
Charming Thought needs to have made a huge jump in form to make it stack up and although the Blues Brother’s figures have Ivawood running equal to his best, they also show a much improved figure for Charming Thought compared to what he had previously recorded.
Channel 4 seemed to be keen to declare that Godolphin were "Back" with their first Group 1 of the season
and have now got a Classic contender on their hands, all on the heads of one win, by a nose, in mud in a back end race with a few spent looking contenders in arrears.
I’ll postpone the Coronation until Charming Thought wins his first Classic and stay with the feeling that Ivawood won’t hit the top at a mile next season. It is not that I think his bubble burst in the Middle Park but some air was let out of it. If he trains on he could be a top flight sprinter but as we saw with Toormore this season, it’s not a given.
C4 and their pundits are absolutely pathetic and full of propaganda and nonsense. They can never wait to big up either Godolphin or "Frankie".
Hey, Steve, I am not saying Charming Thought is a classic contender, but simply he is a fair bit better than credit is being given.
I would say those behind are just about on their best, Cap San and Muhaarar for sure and TBB time figure has Ivawood up at his best. It all points to reasonably sound form overall. I take your points on board but I think we are in danger of understating the winner too much.
If anything, the Dewhurst is worth more scrutiny, a mess of a race. No pace early, horses running well off form and generally a sub standard race & we are left with Belardo being the best 2yo of the season apparently?
Hey, Steve, I am not saying Charming Thought is a classic contender, but simply he is a fair bit better than credit is being given.
I would say those behind are just about on their best, Cap San and Muhaarar for sure and TBB time figure has Ivawood up at his best. It all points to reasonably sound form overall. I take your points on board but I think we are in danger of understating the winner too much.
If anything, the Dewhurst is worth more scrutiny, a mess of a race. No pace early, horses running well off form and generally a sub standard race & we are left with Belardo being the best 2yo of the season apparently?
I wasn’t having a go at you tb, it was the Channel 4 team who seemed keen to trumpet Charming Thought after the race, having said beforehand that he had a huge amount to find on form.
The Godolphin horse has improved but it seems too big of a jump to believe implicitly.
We all read these races differently and take varying opinions away from them. Bookmakers have chosen to push Ivawood from as low as 5/1 out to 14/1 for the 2000 Guineas and that would seem a foolhardy move if Ivawood
has
equalled his best performance in the Middle Park. The other worry is if Charming Thought
has
improved as much as the figures suggest, then what is to stop him improving further past Ivawood over the winter?
We’ll be able to revisit the race next year to see what the form was worth but for now I’m not taking too much from either the Middlepark or The Dewhurst to suggest that I am mistaken in believing that the top contender from Ballydoyle will be the one to beat at Newmarket in May.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Steve, I know you weren’t having a pop, no worries on that front.
You are certainly right a la Ballydoyle, looks ridiculously strong handed for early 3yo mile races next year.
The winner was supplemented, and the form might well prove decent. The 25s CT post-race for the Gns was too big imo, and I took some.
Ivawood’s very fine looks will have contributed to the enthusiastic support for him in the market. A plainer Ivawood might have gone off around 8/11, though that will be no consolation to supporters.
A must and a must not, must take on the odds on jollies in Group 1’s and must not have a serious punt on the flat after the St Leger.
the only classic contender that came out of future champions weekend was teogether forever and thats for the oaks.Hopefully we will see a star come out of the racing post trophy but doesnt look like the best 2yos will be there either.
The winner was supplemented, and the form might well prove decent. The 25s CT post-race for the Gns was too big imo, and I took some.
Ivawood’s very fine looks will have contributed to the enthusiastic support for him in the market. A plainer Ivawood might have gone off around 8/11, though that will be no consolation to supporters.
I’ll eat my hat if Charming Thought wins the Guineas. The stable have struggled in recent years in the race, they took until October to win a Group 1 in the country this season, the Middle Park is a poor trial this past two decades and I don’t trust the form.
Had Charming Thought been having his second start I might have been more inclined to believe that he had made huge improvement but it was his 4th start. After finishing second on his debut he won at 4/11 in an ordinary Lingfield 3 grand maiden before being pushed out to win a four runner Leicester novice event by half a length from a Mark Johnston runner rated 96.
Those three runs left Charming Thought rated 98 but his narrow defeat of Ivawood has seen the handicapper raise his mark to 118, meaning the horse found 20lbs improvement in three and a half weeks, after showing modest progression through runs 1,2 and 3.
I find that hard to accept and Charming Thought’s new rating leaves him 3lbs ahead of Henry Candy’s unbeaten Limato. If there were a match bet between the two tomorrow, with the Godolphin horse conceding 3lbs, I think I know how the betting would look.
As Captain Kirk said to Scotty: "if….. bite… Spock" you know the line Joe
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Steve, you’re a good judge. Around this time last year, I posted that I’d backed Kingston Hill at a big price for the Guineas. Your response then was similar, so I’m hopeful, not confident.
Main reason I backed him was that Ladbrokes went 10s, and Boyle’s 25s, though I did think he was quite impressive.
Que sera.
You never know Joe and 25/1 is fair enough odds for a punt, but at a general 16/1 now I don’t see any value there given the reasons I mentioned above and so I am just putting my thoughts here for people to consider and either take on board or reject as they see fit.
The biggest single off-putting thing for me is the Godolphin trained factor. They had a poor year with their supposedly best prospect True Story a big disappointment after an impressive win in the Fielden stakes. They only had one runner in the Guineas this year, Outstrip, who went off 25/1 and finished stone last.
Generally I see them as an operation who should be doing an awful lot better given the money they are spending.
Faydhan is a horse who could be seriously good next year. He had a setback but then so did Kingman and he bounced back. Faydhan won by an impressive 6l from Dutch Connection, who went on to win the Group 3 Acomb Stakes at York before finishing third to Gleneagles in the Gp 1 National Stakes, beaten less than he was beaten by Faydhan. The horse who was runner up in the Acomb, Toocoolforschool went on to absolutely bolt up in the Gp 2 Mill Reef, albeit on soft ground.
Dutch Connection is now rated 110 and Toocoolforschool 113, when you consider Faydhan beat the first horse by six lengths on his debut and was highly unlikely to have been at his peak given his trainer’s profile, I think that leaves Faydhan as having only normal improvement to make to be right up there. If he turns up looking well before the Greenham, you just know the 12/1 will vanish in a flash and perhaps he’ll finally nail the Gosden hoodoo after hitting the bar with Kingman this year.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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