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  • #12225
    tbracing
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    • Total Posts 1453

    I’m going to do the flavour of the month and add some bets to a thread as I go, won’t detail all my betting activity but just some thoughts.

    Goodwood 4.35 has taken my eye today in which I am backing Suruour and Servoca.

    Surour has progressed nicely this year for a change of stables and with a big performance last time out he shows no signs of stopping that progression, has an extra 5lbs to contend with today but 8/1 is fair compensation.

    Servoca is an interesting horse, amazed he is the price he is, Enderby Spirit his conqueror last time out has gone on to run a solid 3rd at Newmarket at the July meeting in which Shamwari Lodge and Enact were back in 8th and 9th. (Shamwari Lodge didn’t have things fall her way that day though). Not concerned about the step up in trip already placed over 7f at 2yo this extra furlong may help him out.

    1 point win Suruour @ 8/1 Various (Took 7/1 in the end after withdrawals) – 1st (+7pts)
    1 point win Servoca @ 33/1 Boylesports – UP (-1pt)

    Running Total: +6pts

    #242237
    tbracing
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    • Total Posts 1453

    Chester 4:05

    Opus Maximus

    looks like my idea of a bet in this race. Ran a big race here earlier in the year off 88 and now 2lbs lower for that in a slightly lower grade. He was pitched wide that day and suffered a troubled passage and finished like a bullet. Back up to this 7 1/2f trip today will suit much better than the recent attempts at 6f.

    1 point win

    Opus Maximus

    @ 7/1 General –

    4th

    (

    -1pt

    )

    Chester 3.30

    Backing

    Doncaster Rover

    here. Ran a solid race last time out behind High Standing and Prime Defender and drops back to a listed race here. A reproduction of that last run would be good enough to win this and with a low draw to his advantage he may take some stopping today. Unlike most of his rivals there is still room for improvement and pitched against exposed rivals he has to be one to be with.

    2 point win

    Doncaster Rover

    @ 2/1 General –

    1st

    (

    +4pts

    )

    Running Total:

    +9 pts

    #242374
    tbracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1453

    Ripon 3.45

    Kerrys Requiem

    isn’t the easiest horse in the world and she has to settle better today but if she does then she is going to hold a big chance. Should have won here 2 starts back but the door was closed when going for a winning run. This is only her second run in a handicap against older horses and her first run she finished fast behind High Standing of a 2lb higher mark. Beaten by Mr Laurel last time out she is 8lbs better off though beaten well she may be able to bridge the gap today.

    Viking Spirit

    is also interesting, though the stable isn’t firing he ran a couple of good races at the start of his season and looked to be coming back to form at Chepstow behind Thebes, last time out he raced in a duo with Damika on the stands side at York and both were well beaten that looked like a race to put a line through. He has been dropped 5lbs after that and is now 8lbs lower than his last win and off just 90 in a class 3 handicap he could quite easily run a big race.

    1 point win

    Kerrys Requiem

    @ 9/1 VC and Ladbrokes –

    3rd

    (

    -1pt

    )
    1 point win

    Viking Spirit

    @ 14/1 Ladbrokes –

    2nd

    (

    -1pt

    )

    :(

    #242383
    tbracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1453

    5.15 Ripon

    Going to take a punt on

    Rowayton

    . Ran a cracker last time out at Newmarket and has some solid form this year in better class races than this and drops into a lower grade off just 83. Can be keen but a drop to 5f and allowing her to lead will see her going a stride faster and may work the oracle.

    1 point win

    Rowayton

    @ 7/2 general –

    6th

    (

    -1pt

    )

    Running Total:

    +6pts

    #242611
    tbracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1453

    5.20 Newcastle

    Leonid Glow

    was a horse I felt could progress at 4yo at the end of last season. He ran well at Doncaster 3 starts back to confirm his ability and after a pleasing run last time out staying on over 6f he could appreciate the extra furlong today. Also to note the stable is in very good form right now.

    1 point win

    Leonid Glow

    @ 7/1 General –

    5th

    (

    -1pt

    )

    Doubled in price before the off, charming!

    Running Total:

    +5 points

    #243035
    tbracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1453

    No time for a write up sorry

    2.40 Rose of Lancaster Stakes

    1 point win

    Campanologist

    7/2 available @ Coral –

    2nd

    (-1pt)

    Running Total:

    +4pts

    #244586
    tbracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1453

    I’ll try and keep this runnng a bit more reguarly if I can, nice tidy day at York so hopefully I can stay in top gear.

    7.30 ‘@ Nottingham

    Can’t be having Enact at 9/4 in here and will be opposing her with

    Shangani

    . A solid effort last time out and with the defection of Olynard and Tagula Night she looks brilliant value at 6/1. Ticks more boxes than Invincible Isle and Medician Man with trip and conditions in favour she is still open to more improvement.

    1 point win

    Shangani

    @ 6/1 Paddy and Stan J

    UP -1pt

    #249183
    tbracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1453

    Wolverhampton hosts a pretty good card tonight with an interesting conditions stakes and noticably a very good claimer. As far as the conditions stakes goes at

    8.40

    , I can’t believe Cesare has managed to get in here at 2/1. Not at his best in recent times granted but with his 2nd to Paco Boy earlier in the year I have sided on the opinion that he still has it and casting my mind back to his demolition of a listed field at Ascot last year I can see him repeating such a performance and potentially hacking up on the bridle with bags of my cash swinging off either side of his saddle.

    2 point win

    Cesare

    2/1 generally available. –

    4th

    -2pts

    Well it wasn’t to be, no bags of cash for me! You wouldn’t say this course suits Cesare really but still well below what he once was capable and surely it’s the end of the road now?

    Running Total:

    1pt

    #250395
    tbracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1453

    Ascot 5.00

    Espiritu

    looks of great interest today. Disapointed last time out but the pick of his efforts this year include a good 4th in the Britannia and a 3rd back in July in the NBD Cup, both those efforts have come over todays course and distance. Whilst he has been creeping up the weights with out winning this isn’t the most competitive of class 2 handicaps and I’d be hopeful of him running well under favourable conditions. It’s worth noting in the Challenge Cup and the October Stakes yesterday there was a big favouritism to staying far side. Drawn high in 10 Espiritu is drawn next to Salient who is likely to want to set a good pace which should play into Espiritus favour.

    There is

    11/1

    available with

    Skybet

    and

    VC

    as I type.

    1 point win

    Espiritu

    8th -1pt

    I would also look at laying

    Alfathaa

    for a place in here, trading at about 2.64 right now but I will settle it at BSP on here. He doesn’t seem to be able to get into top gear over this mile and even with the 4lb drop in weight he looks badly exposed at the moment.

    1 point

    place lay

    Alfathaa

    2nd -1.16pts

    2 bad runs from Espiritu now, disapointing.

    Running Total:

    -1.16

    #251045
    tbracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1453

    Newmarket 4.20

    Sugar Free

    is the first of my ideas for this race, after her performance last time out she emerges with good credit in my eyes under conditions that were against her behind the mud loving Reverence. At Goodwood on her penultimate start she never really got into the race, the pace was up against the rail and drawn wide and trapped on the outside group of the field she faded in the close and it’s a run I am prepared to forgive, she looks well priced today to get back on the winning track.

    The other one for this race that interests me is

    Spin Cycle

    , the visor on last time seemed only to hinder him as he produced a performance below that of his penultimate start at Doncaster behind Strike The Deal, that form would post him with a serious chance today and with the ground like a road as he needs it and plenty of pace in the field he is more than capable of a listed success this looks a realistic opportunity.

    1 point win

    Sugar Free

    14/1 General –

    UP -1pt

    1 point win

    Spin Cycle

    9/1 General –

    1st +9pts

    Running Total:

    +6.84 pts

    #251478
    tbracing
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    • Total Posts 1453

    3.55 Redcar

    With the defection of Arabian Gleam it can only strengthen the chances of

    Huntdown

    putting his first win on the board for 2009. Godolphin have won 3 of the last 6 runnings of this race and Redcar is a stomping ground for Bin Suroor, allied to the fact Huntdown is the best horse in here and still lightly raced in comparison to others I expected him to be shorter than the 9/4 on offer.

    1 point win

    Huntdown

    @ 9/4 BOG various –

    Lost

    , finished somewhere near Brighton Peer /

    -1 point

    #252816
    tbracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1453

    Lingfield 1.50

    Gassin

    looks fairly priced in my book, the visor worked well last time around and he had also had a break between his last 2 starts and seems to have been put back on the straight and narrow now. Open to more progress this isn’t a great field and I’d be hopeful he can go in again.

    2 point win

    Gassin

    @ 3/1 general –

    3rd – 2pts

    Goodwood 3.10

    I like the chances of

    Son Of The Cat

    , he’s been sliding on the exchange this morning but he looks really well priced on the back of recent form, looked a decent handicap at Ascot last time and he has won on his only start at Goodwood, he is posted wide on the track today and with the likely pace coming from We Have A Dream (drawn in 6) it is a slight negative but he may well over come it, he is less exposed than alot of his rivals and could put up a challenge today.

    1 point win

    Son Of The Cat

    @ 14/1 VCBet, BOG

    2nd – 1pt

    #254563
    tbracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1453

    Southwell 3.40

    A decent heat for the track and the kind of race I like to sink my teeth into. I am backing

    Quest For Successs

    here. Has held his form well this season in competitive sprints and is dropped 5lbs on a return to the AW to an OR of 90 on which he won the Scottish Stewards Cup at Hamilton and this drop in class could be enough to get his head infront again. I would say too much attention has been paid to Igleby Arch’s recent run and he looks worth opposing up in class, I make that runner more like 11/2 and looks a weak favourite.

    1 point win

    Quest For Success

    @ 13/2 Coral and Totesport

    #255636
    tbracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1453

    Southwell 2.50

    I’m all over

    Strike Up The Band

    in here. He is pretty exposed and has many near misses these days but his recent form pits him as favourite for me and I would be sceptical backing Turn On The Style after his prolonged absence.

    1 pt win Strike Up The Band 10/3 available in various places –

    unplaced -1pt

    Also I would recommend

    Cape Kimberley

    and

    Angies Nap

    in the 2.20

    1 pt win @ 9/2 Angies Nap –

    1st +4.5pts

    1 pt win @ 7/1 Cape Kimberley –

    2nd -1pt

    #255846
    tbracing
    Participant
    • Total Posts 1453

    Nottingham 1.40

    This looks tailored to suit

    Sands Crooner

    today, so much pace in this field these are the days when he travels like a good horse, respect the front pair in the market but I feel there is no value in either of them.

    Sands Crooner

    1 point win @ 12/1 Sportingbet, plenty of 10/1 on offer.

    UP -1pt

    Also accross the cards I would recommend

    Lewyn

    and

    Mickys Knock Off

    in the 2.00 at Musselburgh, have already had some of the bigger prices on Mickys Knock Off but i still think the 8/1 is worth backing

    1 point win

    Lewyn

    @ 13/2 Coral –

    UP -1pt

    1 point win

    Mickys Knock Off

    @ 8/1 various

    3rd -1pt

    Probably worth grabbing the 5/1 about

    Arizona John

    also, last price I would take on him think he should be 4/1 favourite in the 3.15 @ Nottingham

    1 point win

    Arizona John

    @ 5/1 various

    UP -1pt

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