Isn't it satisfying when this happens?

[Grimes]

Great story, Wallace, and fascinating reading other posters’ experiences in this thread, too.

Recently, Little Edward, first time out at 25s. Seemed the type to catch win first time out, particularly in a small field. At half his best, he was different class, (though on balance, I don’t think had really lived up to his potential).

When connections have a chance to win well, to a relatively small stake, on a horse that hasn’t won for a while, been disappointing, I think they don’t want to risk it winning in a small field, not providing cover. They’d prefer to continue to be disappointed until they decide the time’s appropriate! I’m not saying this is true of Little Edward’s connections – just my speculations.

Looking back through my records for the past year, such as they are, I also noticed Detroit City at 33s. It seemed incredible, and so it proved.

There is a downside, though, in that I’m so astonished, that I sometimes take the 14s to 20s asap, and it ends up 33s! Also further down the odds scale. I’m getting a bit better at sussing out the likely prices set by the bookies, but doubt it will ever be an exact science.

Another angle, a negative one, is big-priced or fairly big-priced horses you bet on that get mugged by a 50/1 or 60/1 shot – like Excusez-moi, yesterday!   But let’s not dwell on those.

I’m baffle at Imperial Stride being on offer on Betfair at 60s for the Caulfield Cup. I think he should win it. Godolphin say he’s their drak horse for the race – intending at this stage to run him – as he hasn’t yet run for them. But he’s down to run in a couple of races here before Oz, so if he’s anything like his old self that won’t last long. He was rated by Tmeform a few pounds above Yeats last year. Top horse for his age.

<br>

[Racing Daily]

My most lucrative hunch was actually Sergeant Cecil at Sandown, a couple of years ago.<br>I fancied a bet, and had a hunch about SC.  <br>He had for figs of ‘2-20’ and this followed my ‘bounce theory’ on in-form horses.  I don’t heavily back horses on theories usually, but I had a hunch about this one.  I had a £50 bet, which is at the top end of what I bet in handicaps.  He won at 12/1 and I cleaned up on the night :) <br>Good old Sergeant Cecil.

[Grimes]

The joy of having your rare judgement vindicated by a long-priced winner reminds me of an incident in my younger days.

It took me many decades to bet even half intelligently on the horses, and I’m not merely talking about the normal need to garner experience; I was always looking for rank outsiders to win – when as we know, they form a small percentage of overall winners.

I thought trainers could get horses fit at short notice, whenever they wanted, and they all had minds like corkscrews, and I was going to try and follow wherever the corkscrew led to winners.

During this long, long, almost completely fallow period, I spent 4 years 300 days and an early breakfast in the RA (senior regiment, right of the line – for the benefit of you guards types), with precisely the same rank as Duane Doberman and, oddly enough, Hunter S Thompon.

Duane was a Private II class in the motor pool, Hunter, an Aircraftsman II class (though not in the motor pool, I think), and me, a Gunner II Class in the Motor Pool.

One evening the guard sergeant, who happened to be my troop sergeant, Eagles, had us on parade for inspection, before guard duty.

Now, I’d had a rare winner just the other day, called Cassieme – a horse trained by Dave Thom, I believe – which won at 25/1.

Anyway, Eagles came up to me, looked me up and down and, evidently thinking I looked scruffy, asked me if I’d looked in the mirror. To my addled brain, it sounded like had I "seen the Mirror".

I thought that’s a strange question to ask in these circumstances, but if he wants to be informal, who am I to be complain? So, I replied, "Yeah, imagine that…..Cassieme – 25 to 1…..".

I could see him rock back on his heels with a look of utter bafflement on his moosh, while the other lads seemed to be having great difficulty suppressing their laughter.

Unfortunately, I chose to join the army a time when I was trying to work out the relationship between appearances and reality. And the army is not the place to  be with that kind of mindset. Constant discursive musings on the nature of reality is just a no-no. Don’t aks me why.

(Edited by Grimes at 4:17 pm on Sep. 17, 2006)<br>

(Edited by Grimes at 4:20 pm on Sep. 17, 2006)

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