- This topic has 175 replies, 33 voices, and was last updated 18 years ago by
.
- Posts
Can’t believe Prufrock hasn’t contributed to this thread yet.
Perhaps he is fed up of battering his head against a wall?!
Colin
Zoso, lets assume you fancy Kauto Star for the Gold Cup.
I make a book of:
1/25 Kauto Star
50/1 the fieldWin bets only.
What do you do?
edit: only 1 bet… can’t just back 10 horses at 50/1
Thats the one time when value becomes a logical arguement. Kauto Star is underpriced at 1/25 even though I think he will win. I can choose to have no bet as although I think the horse will win, the price is simply too short. I agree with not backing a horse that you think will win if you believe the price is too short (thats not to say I cant back an 8/11 shot if I think he should be a 1/2 shot). In terms of e/w betting though I select the horse that I think will win. If the horse was trading at 1/25 then I would not spend any time studying form for that race and would move instantly onto another market in search of my bet. A winner has to have found value and a loser has to have not found value. Profit or loss is the be all and end all.
Zoso, lets assume you fancy Kauto Star for the Gold Cup.
I make a book of:
1/25 Kauto Star
50/1 the fieldWin bets only.
What do you do?
edit: only 1 bet… can’t just back 10 horses at 50/1
Thats the one time when value becomes a logical arguement. Kauto Star is underpriced at 1/25 even though I think he will win. I can choose to have no bet as although I think the horse will win, the price is simply too short. I agree with not backing a horse that you think will win if you believe the price is too short (thats not to say I cant back an 8/11 shot if I think he should be a 1/2 shot). In terms of e/w betting though I select the horse that I think will win. If the horse was trading at 1/25 then I would not spend any time studying form for that race and would move instantly onto another market in search of my bet. A winner has to have found value and a loser has to have not found value. Profit or loss is the be all and end all.
In reality though you back Denman at 50/1 surely?
I think one cause of the disagreement between those who rate value prices and those who value winners is
that the value seekers are taking a longer term view.It is true, imo, that each and every race is a unique, once-off, event. The vast majority of punters seem content to try find the winner, on a race by race basis. There’s nothing quite like the feeling of backing a winner!
I know, it’s even happened to me once or twice.What I think the smart users of value are saying and, perhaps, doing is treating the game more as a profit-making venture over a series of events that adds up, hopefully, to a longterm profitable process.
This is probably a more business-like approach and is more akin to the view taken by the bookmakers; what counts is how things stand financially at the end of the year, rather than at the end of a race.Be this as it may, there is still no fixed mathematical way to predict the future, imo, though, indeed, there may be some pretty accurate methods to make profitable estimates.
My own way involves plenty of guesswork and assumption, but as long as it keeps me just slightly ahead, I’m not too bothered whether ’tis luck, judgement, or, a thorough understanding and application of the value concept, that keeps me ticking over!Btw, was Nowhere still value at 16/1 or, did the "value" go once the 20/1 was taken?
Zoso, lets assume you fancy Kauto Star for the Gold Cup.
I make a book of:
1/25 Kauto Star
50/1 the fieldWin bets only.
What do you do?
edit: only 1 bet… can’t just back 10 horses at 50/1
Thats the one time when value becomes a logical arguement. Kauto Star is underpriced at 1/25 even though I think he will win. I can choose to have no bet as although I think the horse will win, the price is simply too short. I agree with not backing a horse that you think will win if you believe the price is too short (thats not to say I cant back an 8/11 shot if I think he should be a 1/2 shot). In terms of e/w betting though I select the horse that I think will win. If the horse was trading at 1/25 then I would not spend any time studying form for that race and would move instantly onto another market in search of my bet. A winner has to have found value and a loser has to have not found value. Profit or loss is the be all and end all.
In reality though you back Denman at 50/1 surely?
No. I never back a horse that I dont think will win regardless of what price it is.
By your arguement. You must back every single outsider on Betfair. After all a horse that is priced 100/1 with a bookmaker may be trading at 300.0 on betfair. Therefor you surely back every single outsider that is markedly bigger than the bookmakers price as they must be value.
I would only back that outsider if I actually thought it could win.
Btw, was Nowhere still value at 16/1 or, did the "value" go once the 20/1 was taken?
Knowhere would have been value at 1/5 let alone 16/1 as it won. A winner is value a loser is not.
Zoso, lets assume you fancy Kauto Star for the Gold Cup.
I make a book of:
1/25 Kauto Star
50/1 the fieldWin bets only.
What do you do?
edit: only 1 bet… can’t just back 10 horses at 50/1
Thats the one time when value becomes a logical arguement. Kauto Star is underpriced at 1/25 even though I think he will win. I can choose to have no bet as although I think the horse will win, the price is simply too short. I agree with not backing a horse that you think will win if you believe the price is too short (thats not to say I cant back an 8/11 shot if I think he should be a 1/2 shot). In terms of e/w betting though I select the horse that I think will win. If the horse was trading at 1/25 then I would not spend any time studying form for that race and would move instantly onto another market in search of my bet. A winner has to have found value and a loser has to have not found value. Profit or loss is the be all and end all.
In reality though you back Denman at 50/1 surely?
No. I never back a horse that I dont think will win regardless of what price it is.
By your arguement. You must back every single outsider on Betfair. After all a horse that is priced 100/1 with a bookmaker may be trading at 300.0 on betfair. Therefor you surely back every single outsider that is markedly bigger than the bookmakers price as they must be value.
I would only back that outsider if I actually thought it could win.
I would only backa horse at 300/1 on Betfair if i thought it was a true 100/1 shot. The bookies are very stingy with longer priced ones because they are forced to offer each way where as betfair ca lay 300/1 win only.
Anyway you don’t back Kauto Star at 1/25 even though you think it’s going to win? Why?
Also what is your price range for backing it? Such as 1/2 – 2/1 or whatever?
Is the same Zoso who started a thread about Quizzene saying it was 4/1 and should have been 4/6, but was still happy with the bet after the horse had been beaten because it was an excellent price.
Or do we have two people on here using the same tagline?
AP
Anyway you don’t back Kauto Star at 1/25 even though you think it’s going to win? Why?
Also what is your price range for backing it? Such as 1/2 – 2/1 or whatever?
I dont back Kauto Star at 1/25 as I have no interest in winning £4 for the risk of £100.00
If I think Kauto Star will win then that is the only horse I could possibly back. If the price is stupidly short then I simply leave the race alone, I dont find an alternative.
The price I would back it, would depend on how strongly I fancied it and how much of a certainty I thought it was. If I thought it was a cast iron certainty then I would happily back it at 1/2.
Anyway you don’t back Kauto Star at 1/25 even though you think it’s going to win? Why?
Also what is your price range for backing it? Such as 1/2 – 2/1 or whatever?
I dont back Kauto Star at 1/25 as I have no interest in winning £4 for the risk of £100.00
If I think Kauto Star will win then that is the only horse I could possibly back. If the price is stupidly short then I simply leave the race alone, I dont find an alternative.
The price I would back it, would depend on how strongly I fancied it and how much of a certainty I thought it was. If I thought it was a cast iron certainty then I would happily back it at 1/2.
Ok so you back it a as short as 1/2 but no less.
This means you allocate it 66% chance of winning. Therefor the rest of the field by your own judgement has a 34% chance of winning.
This is where value comes into play. If you’re willing to back Kauto at 1/2 then you should be happy to back the field at 2/1 as it’s the same bet. Even better if you can back Denman at 50/1 because that’s even better value.
The fact that you have some guidlines about prices means you actually do use some form of ‘value’ punting already but you just don’t realise you’re doing it.
You wouldn’t back Kauto at 1/25 because you don’t believe it has a 96% chance of winning. The same reason other people would back a horse at 5/1 even though they think it’s only got a 30% chance of winning. All about value..
Is the same Zoso who started a thread about Quizzene saying it was 4/1 and should have been 4/6, but was still happy with the bet after the horse had been beaten because it was an excellent price.
Or do we have two people on here using the same tagline?
AP
I am always happy with my bets- win, lose or draw. If I wasnt happy with my bets beforehand then I would not have placed them, my happiness is a result of me being pleased and satisfied with my reason for backing the horse. I am not the type of person who selects a bet and then blames all and sundry when it does not win. I thought 4/1 was a great price as I thought the horse would be the winner. I was wrong it was not the winner therefor I did not get value. I dont expect to win with every bet and I know that I will be wrong on many occasions.
If I was not happy with my bet after the race had finished regardless of the result then why the hell did I put the bet on in the first place. Quizzene was a horse that was almost impossible to keep out of the places so 4/1 was a decent price. It was an e/w bet and it got 2nd. Why would I not be happy with that?Value is an excuse to hide behind.
Some interesting stuff here, Zoso.
I thought your spreadsheet was very good, but I’m surprised you are not looking for another EW opportunity in the Gold Cup.
What do you think of my EW bet on Exotic Dancer?
Pretty silly , I suppose, as he may not run.
Some interesting stuff here, Zoso.
I thought your spreadsheet was very good, but I’m surprised you are not looking for another EW opportunity in the Gold Cup.
What do you think of my EW bet on Exotic Dancer?
Pretty silly , I suppose, as he may not run.
I will not make a call on a race til the day of the race. So many things can happen in between. Ask me on the day what I think of Exotic Dancer and I will be able to tell you. I would say that Kauto Star clearly has the beating of Exotic Dancer and therefor I could not back Exotic Dancer as a place is the best he can hope for without Kauto Star falling. I could still look for an e/w alternative to Kauto Star but it would have to be a selection that I believe can finish 2nd or 3rd and return a good profit for doing so, ie a horse at 12/1 + as it will pay 4/1 on the place side and be a profitable worthwhile bet. If you got 12/1 + on Exotic Dancer then at this stage (pre the doubts as to wether he will run or not) I could see that as being a sound bet.
If Exotic Dancer does turn up at Cheltenham and beats Kauto Star then it means my judgement was wrong and I would hold my hands up and move onto my next bet.
Of course I can and will be wrong on many occasions but I will only back a horse that I believe can win (or place at profitable odds).Basically here, I am playing a bit of devils advocate. I know full well about value and what it is. My main point is that if you pick a 5/1 shot on the basis that it is the value selection and it comes 4th then you simply made a losing bet and you were wrong it was not value. You either picked the winner or you picked the loser. The person who got the value was the person who layed your bet as his account is the one that just got paid.
Of course value exists but I believe it as an overused arguement to hide behind for racing pundits.
Now Im seriously going to condracict myself and say that on the laying side of my betting, all horses I lay are horses that I believe are underpriced. I know that if I lay a horse that is priced too short then even though I know there is a chance that it can win, over a period of time I will be in profit. If over a period of time I am not in a profit then clearly my perception of what is and what isnt value is misguided. These are my lays for January so far, they are all short priced horses that I think are underpriced:
1st-Jan Tramore 12:15 Major Sensation 2.12 11/10 1st £224.00 -£224.00 2pnt Lay
Fairyhouse 12:35 The Ethiopian 1.96 9/10 5th £192.00 -£32.00 2pnt Lay
Exeter 13:15 Onefourfun 2.72 3/1 2nd £96.00 £64.00
Catterick 13:20 Sun King 2.56 10/3 1st £312.00 -£248.00 2pnt Lay
2nd-Jan Wolverhampton 14:55 Shaydreambeliever 3.50 7/2 5th £96.00 -£152.00
Kempton 20:20 Miss Phoebe 3.50 9/4 6th £96.00 -£56.00
3rd-Jan Fontwell 13:15 Nation State 3.45 9/4 3rd £96.00 £40.00
Lingfield 13:35 Pab Special 2.98 2/1 3rd £96.00 £136.00
Thurles 14:15 Siegemaster 1.63 4/7 1st £63.00 £73.00
Fontwell 14:20 Souwester 3.30 3/1 3rd £96.00 £169.00
Fontwell 14:20 Mighty Matters 3.40 11/4 PU £96.00 £265.00
Wolverhampton 19:20 Tiger Spice 3.00 13/8 3rd £192.00 £457.00 2pnt Lay
Wolverhampton 19:50 Twist Bookie 2.78 9/4 5th £192.00 £649.00 2pnt Lay
Wolverhampton 21:20 Princess Cocoa 3.10 11/8 4th £96.00 £745.00
4th-Jan Southwell 13:10 Valhillen 3.40 9/4 2nd £96.00 £841.00
Lingfield 13:20 Chapoturgeon 3.10 2/1 1st £210.00 £631.00
Southwell 14:10 Hucking Heat 3.15 2/1 1st £215.00 £416.00
Lingfield 14:50 Ballyfitz 3.50 15/8 2nd £96.00 £512.00
Wolverhampton 20:20 Freshmint 3.45 9/4 1st £245.00 £267.00
5th-Jan Lingfield 12:35 Bridgwater Boys 2.74 11/8 1st £174.00 £93.00
Chepstow 12:50 Sobers 3.00 15/8 1st £200.00 -£107.00
Wincanton 13:45 Miss Mitch 1.87 8/11 UR £96.00 -£11.00
Lingfield 14:15 Salt Of The Earth 2.78 5/6 2nd £96.00 £85.00
Wincanton 14:50 Maori Legend 3.25 6/4 1st £225.00 -£140.00
Wincanton 15:55 Oniphlaure 2.26 13/8 2nd £96.00 -£44.00
Kempton 18:50 Mr Napoleon 2.44 EVS 4th £192.00 £148.00 2pnt Lay
Kempton 19:20 Grand Strategy 3.40 5/4 1st £240.00 -£92.00
Kempton 19:50 Hit The Roof 2.60 13/8 6th £96.00 £4.00
6th-Jan Naas 13:15 Thyne Again 2.40 6/4 1st £140.00 -£136.00
Plumpton 13:25 it’s a Dream 2.00 5/6 2nd £96.00 -£40.00
Southwell 15:10 Smoothly Does It 2.80 6/4 7th £192.00 £152.00 2pnt Lay
7th-Jan Southwell 12:50 Winthorpe 3.20 2/1 6th £96.00 £248.00
Southwell 14:50 Elusive Warrior 2.44 7/4 3rd £96.00 £344.00
Ludlow 15:00 Merlins Magic 3.00 13/8 PU £96.00 £440.00
Southwell 15:20 Cragganmore Creek 3.15 11/8 3rd £96.00 £536.00
8th-Jan Southwell 12:10 Three Boars 3.05 15/8 1st £205.00 £331.00
Leicester 15:50 Honours Dream 2.68 7/4 1st £336.00 -£5.00 2pnt Lay
9th-Jan Musselburgh 13:10 Sualda 2.32 11/10 5th £192.00 £187.00 2pnt Lay
Lingfield 13:50 Denbra Dancer 2.78 10/11 3rd £96.00 £283.00
Wolverhampton 20:50 Moment Of Clarity 2.56 6/5 7th £192.00 £475.00 2pnt Lay
10th-Jan Southwell 12:40 Chatshow 3.30 2/1 3rd £96.00 £571.00
Southwell 13:10 Calculating 2.32 8/11 1st £132.00 £439.00
Hereford 13:30 Crocodile Rock 1.58 2/5 2nd £192.00 £631.00 2pnt Lay
Southwell 13:40 Copperbottomed 1.89 1/2 3rd £96.00 £727.00
Southwell 15:10 Sweet Pickle 2.30 7/4 2nd £192.00 £919.00 2pnt Lay
Hereford 15:00 Irish Legend 2.72 11/8 2nd £192.00 £1111.00 2pnt Lay
Wolverhampton 19:20 Moon Bound 2.50 2/1 3rd £192.00 £1303.00 2pnt Lay
Wolverhampton 20:20 My Mate Max 2.60 9/4 2nd £192.00 £1495.00 2pnt Lay
11th-Jan Kelso 14:10 Corlande rule4-2.86 11/8 1st £186.00 £1309.00
Kelso 14:10 Silver Something rule 4-3.25 5/2 2nd £96.00 £1405.00
Wolverhampton 15:30 Wisemans Diamond 3.35 7/4 3rd £96.00 £1501.00
Kempton 18:20 Call Of The Search 1.96 4/6 2nd £192.00 £1793.00 2pnt Lay
Kempton 19:20 Mind Alert 3.25 2/1 1st £225.00 £1568.00
12th-Jan Lingfield 13:20 Denbera Dancer 2.34 11/8 4th £192.00 £1760.00 2pnt Lay
Lingfield 14:55 Bonus 2.40 EVS 1st £280.00 £1480.00 2[nt Lay
Kempton 15:15 Panjo Bere 3.30 3/1 6th £96.00 £1576.00
Lingfield 15:25 Evident Pride 2.20 5/6 2nd £192.00 £1768.00 2pnt Lay
Punchestown 15:05 Shady Willow 2.08 8/11 2nd £192.00 £1960.00 2pnt Lay
Warwick 15:30 Cryptic 2.64 7/4 2nd £192.00 £2152.00 2pnt Lay
Kempton 15:45 Mister Quasimodo 2.32 5/4 PU £96.00 £2248.00
Wolverhampton 20:50 Steig 2.40 EVS 1st £280.00 £1968.00 2pnt Lay
13th-Jan Kempton 12:45 Salt Of The Earth 1.45 3/10 2nd £288.00 £2256.00 3pnt Lay
Leopardstown 12:50 Wins Now 1.90 8/13 2nd £192.00 £2448.00 2pnt Lay
Kempton 15:55 Prince Of Medina 2.34 11/10 5th £192.00 £2640.00 2pnt Lay
14th-Jan Southwell 12:40 Savilles Delight 2.94 7/4 1st £194.00 £2446.00
Fakenham 12:50 Piper Hayes 3.10 5/2 4th £96.00 £2542.00
Southwell 13:10 Fulford 3.15 7/4 4th £96.00 £2638.00
Southwell 13:40 Another Genepri 2.80 5/4 1st £180.00 £2458.00
Fakenham 13:50 Saint Kadette 3.15 5/6 2nd £192.00 £2650.00 2pnt Lay
Southwell 14:40 Safebreaker 2.44 5/4 2nd £96.00 £2746.00
15th-Jan Southwell 13:30 Silver Hotspur 2.80 15/8 1st £360.00 £2386.00 2pnt Lay
Southwell 14:30 Yankee Storm 2.38 11/8 5th £192.00 £2578.00 2pnt Lay
Kempton 14:40 Steele Tango 2.70 5/4 1st £340.00 £2238.00 2pnt Lay
Southwell 15:30 Taikoo 1.78 4/5 1st £78.00 £2160.00
Southwell 15:30 Be Free 3.50 2/1 2nd £96.00 £2256.00
Southwell 16:00 Sweet Pickle 2.80 15/8 2nd £192.00 £2448.00 2pnt Lay
16th-Jan Lingfield 13:10 Noble Minstrel 2.86 7/4 1st £186.00 £2262.00
Newcastle 13:30 Bangoe 3.00 5/4 4th £96.00 £2358.00
Newcastle 14:40 Brook No Argument 2.36 5/4 2nd £192.00 £2550.00 2pnt Lay
Lingfield 15:55 Smokin Beau 3.30 4/1 4th £96.00 £2646.00
Kempton 18:20 Avoca Dancer 3.00 15/8 2nd £96.00 £2742.00
Kempton 18:20 Stoneacre Donny 3.25 2/1 6th £96.00 £2838.00
Kempton 18:50 King Of Dixie 2.12 11/10 1st £336.00 £2502.00 3pnt Lay
17th-Jan Southwell 15:00 Diriculous 3.00 6/4 5th £96.00 £2598.00
Nad Al Sheba 16:25 Fiesta Lady 2.76 11/8 1st £352.00 £2246.00 2pnt Lay
Wolverhampton 19:20 Tapas Lad 2.96 13/8 1st £196.00 £2050.00
Wolverhampton 19:50 Given A Choice 3.30 11/4 3rd £96.00 £2146.00
Wolverhampton 20:20 Qaasi 1.98 4/5 1st £196.00 £1950.00 2pnt Lay
18th-Jan Catterick 12:40 Monash Lad 1.91 5/6 5th £192.00 £2142.00 2pnt Lay
Wolverhampton 15:30 Pacifism 2.76 2/1 2nd £192.00 £2334.00 2pnt Lay
Kempton 18:20 Savilles Delight 2.30 5/4 2nd £192.00 £2526.00 2pnt LayBtw, was Nowhere still value at 16/1 or, did the “value” go once the 20/1 was taken?
Knowhere would have been value at 1/5 let alone 16/1 as it won. A winner is value a loser is not.
Knowhere wouldn’t be value at 1/5 on the action replay!
One of them [b:1m2yows6]has[/b:1m2yows6] to get beat one day……….Btw, was Nowhere still value at 16/1 or, did the “value” go once the 20/1 was taken?
Knowhere would have been value at 1/5 let alone 16/1 as it won. A winner is value a loser is not.
Knowhere wouldn’t be value at 1/5 on the action replay!
One of them [b:25r5azhw]has[/b:25r5azhw] to get beat one day……….Yes one of them has to get beat one day. But yesterday was the day that Knowhere would have been value in retrospect at 1/5. If I put £100.00 win on Knowhere at 1/5 then I would have walked away with a profit of £20.00
If you had backed £100 win on any of the other horses at 100/1 then you would have lost £100 regardless of what price you took.
Who got the value in that situation in your opinion? The person who won £20 or the person who lost £100.
One bet was a winner the other was a loser, you can hide behind value all you like, but the person who won £20 is £120 better off than the person who lost.
All bets realistically are based on a persons perception of value pre race. My lays are all based on my opinion that the fav I am laying is underpriced and that I will profit long term this way.
However if any one of my lays wins then my perception of that horse not representing value was clearly wrong and I was mistaken in my judgement of value.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.