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All of the racing pundits I listen to on TV, radio in the Racing Post etc, all over use the word ‘value’ in my view.
Surely this word is just a ready made excuse in case the horse runs badly. "Ah well at least we took the value".
There is no value in backing a loser no matter how you try and dress it up. A winner is value, a loser is not its as simple as that. Every single winner of every single day was obviously value as it won regardles of what price it was. Whatever price that winner was before the race was obviously good value.
I fully understand the concept of value but I feel that the racing media are guilty of overusing this term. By saying if I back the value in the long term then I will produce a profit is absolute rubbish.
If you back winners in the long term then this is what will produce you a profit. Value is just a word to hide behind when you have backed a loser.
The only time true value occurs is when you have two horses that have an identical chance and one is priced bigger. But if the bigger priced horse gets beaten then it was not value and you simply read the race wrong.
I would love to hear a journo explain this term, as Im just not getting it.
Take a look at the exhaustive ‘Question for the racing media’ thread started by Gingertipster, Zoso…
Zoso I think you are absolutely right.
The objective is to find the winner of a race. Every race will have a winner. If we all knew the winner of every race we’d all be zillionaires (well we wouldn’t as no-one would lay us but you get my point).
There is no such thing as value in terms of betting in as much as value is an "individual presumption", in other words an opinion there is no right or wrong answer when it comes to what you term as value.
As you say any horse that wins is value because you gain from it, every horse that loses is absolutely no value because you gain nothing of it – that is a very funny idea of value.
Its about picking enough winners and doing your maths right in relation to your staking / potential return / profit&loss column.
The media are paid to work in the media not to make money betting. Most of them to be honest (and I don’t appear to be rude) talk absolute nonsense and would have a deal of difficulty picking their nose. Look at John Francome for instance. Great guy, I think he’s marvellous but when it comes to analysing a race / picking winners he talks as big a pile of rubbish as its possible to talk. All sounds plausible what he says because he delivers it well but look at the result of what he says – is it right / is it wrong?, its very rarely right.
If you picked the winner every time you had a bet –
Few would argue that Neptune is the better horse, yet was the same price as Our Vic. Baffling.
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Our Vic ran a cracker today and rather like the Ryanair last year at the weights he comes out as the best horse in the race (joint best today on my ratings).
Our Vic’s stamina may have been coming to the end of its tether but take Knowhere out and you’ve got an emphatic winner and at levels with the winner theoretically it would’ve been a photo finish.
In last years Ryanair Our Vic carried a penalty for an earlier grade 1 win (someone correct me if I’m wrong) this year he won’t. He’d have won the race last year of levels he has to be on the shortlist again this year.
Oooops sorry sorry sorry sorry sorry. Wrote that completely the wrong way round. My apologies.
I sort of realised what you meant as I posted my reply mate. Understood now.
I fully understand the concept of value but I feel that the racing media are guilty of overusing this term. By saying if I back the value in the long term then I will produce a profit is absolute rubbish.
I kind of agree.
If you cannot understand the concept of value (percentage chance of winning compared to price) then you will struggle to win with betting.
However, I do find some of the pundits examples of "value" hilarious. Without naming names, there is one ATR presenter who seems to think naming the 2nd favourite as a selection equals value simply because she (oops) is not selecting the favourite (for once).
Has she ever picked anything other than the favourite, Alderbrook, I’m always in two minds as to whether she’s ‘Newsboy’ for that very reason
I’m trying not to get too involved in another value argument, but it’s most definitely a theory I don’t subscribe to. There is a difference between not backing a horse because it is underpriced, and backing a horse because it is overpriced, and to suggest that betting on the basis of the latter is the only way to register a profit is complete nonsense.
‘Value’ can only be a consideration following the full (form) analysis of a race, at which point you will have an idea as to who will win the race. If you then use this information to generate a market, indicating what price you think each runner should be, ‘value’ can only stop you taking too big a risk for too little a reward. What it can’t, or shouldn’t, do is force you into backing a horse you didn’t initially identify as the winner simply because the market says it has less of a chance than you perceive it to have.
I fully understand the concept of value but I feel that the racing media are guilty of overusing this term. By saying if I back the value in the long term then I will produce a profit is absolute rubbish.
I kind of agree.
If you cannot understand the concept of value (percentage chance of winning compared to price) then you will struggle to win with betting.
That’s an absolute crock as far as I’m concerned. The minute I read something like that I think " Another analyst spending hours and hours with tables full of figures trying to find the ultimate solution"
A horse is either worth betting or he is not there are no percentages involved. That’s the bookies side of thing and doesn’t belong on our side of the fence.
It takes a punter about 5 seconds to make up his mind whether a horse is value or not.
Like yesterday my plan was to bet only one horse Nevertika (who I have been shouting about on here for months ye of little faith) but when I seen the price of JP’s Aigle D’or I almost fell of my chair and without even thinking I was on the phone.
You don’t have to spend endless hours to know value when you see it and I’ll be fooked if you have to calculate percentages against price
I wish someone would explain to me how do you put an accurate percentage on that. Did Aigle D’or have a 1% a 50% a 90% chance of winning?….what is the point of knowing something that is impossible to work out with any degree of accuracy?……..you either bet them or you don’t in this game.
absolutely agree
as far as i’m concerned value exists when i can get a much bigger price win or place on the exchanges when backing an outsider as opposed to bookies prices – even then it’s only value if it comes in
all this other tosh about value, i file in the same bin as draw bias
Seems like a lot of people don’t understand the concept of value.
Taking a better price than the true odds will result in a profit in the long term.
Lets take a poker hand for an example.
Texas Hold em all in pre flop:
AA vs KK
AA is 80% to win the hand
KK is 20% to win the handAA is a 1/4 favourite. If someone offers you 1/2 about it then you have ‘value’ because over the space of 10000 hands the AA will win 8000 times.
Now if the KK won this time when i had £100 on AA@1/2 i would be slightly annoyed but i know i’d be happy to continue this bet all day long because eventually i’d result in a profit.
It’s the same with horses. If you can get 3/1 about a 2/1 shot or 10/1 about a 7/1 shot then if you keep doing this you will win long term.
Seems like a lot of people don’t understand the concept of value.
Taking a better price than the true odds will result in a profit in the long term.
Lets take a poker hand for an example.
Texas Hold em all in pre flop:
AA vs KK
AA is 80% to win the hand
KK is 20% to win the handAA is a 1/4 favourite. If someone offers you 1/2 about it then you have ‘value’ because over the space of 10000 hands the AA will win 8000 times.
Now if the KK won this time when i had £100 on AA@1/2 i would be slightly annoyed but i know i’d be happy to continue this bet all day long because eventually i’d result in a profit.
It’s the same with horses. If you can get 3/1 about a 2/1 shot or 10/1 about a 7/1 shot then if you keep doing this you will win long term.
No don’t agree.
What is defined as value comes down to personal opinion. At the end of the day its finding winners that counts ultimately.
We all understand the concept I for one just don’t agree with it. ANYTHING can be "value" depending on your interpretation.
Seems like a lot of people don’t understand the concept of value.
Taking a better price than the true odds will result in a profit in the long term.
Lets take a poker hand for an example…..
I totally agree with you, Jam, most people on here don’t understand the concept of value, that is obvious from the content of their posts. However, the key difference between racing and poker is that the poker hands have a pure, mathematical, stonewall percentage of winning – the horses only have what chance my opinion tells me.
Even after the race, one still cannot say with confidence what chance the winner had beforehand, as how much depended on how the race was run (or how the cards were played to use Jim McGrath’s one apposite phrase) one can only surmise.
The key component to understanding value lies in understanding percentage chance, and the key to understanding percentage chance lies in this rub – that winners are not pre-ordained. If Nevison came out with one precise truth in his book it was this; that ALL horses, no matter how poor, have some sort of chance of winning.
Seems like a lot of people don’t understand the concept of value.
Taking a better price than the true odds will result in a profit in the long term.
Lets take a poker hand for an example.
Texas Hold em all in pre flop:
AA vs KK
AA is 80% to win the hand
KK is 20% to win the handAA is a 1/4 favourite. If someone offers you 1/2 about it then you have ‘value’ because over the space of 10000 hands the AA will win 8000 times.
Now if the KK won this time when i had £100 on AA@1/2 i would be slightly annoyed but i know i’d be happy to continue this bet all day long because eventually i’d result in a profit.
It’s the same with horses. If you can get 3/1 about a 2/1 shot or 10/1 about a 7/1 shot then if you keep doing this you will win long term.
No don’t agree.
What is defined as value comes down to personal opinion. At the end of the day its finding winners that counts ultimately.
We all understand the concept I for one just don’t agree with it. ANYTHING can be "value" depending on your interpretation.
Lets say we flip a coin for money.
I put my £50 on heads
You put you £100 on tailsThe true odds of this event happenening are 50/50 so the odds should be even money.
You are giving me 2/1 though.
So if tails comes in are you happy with your bet?
I’d happily flip with you forever under these circumstances in the knowledge that as long as i’m getting value i will come out on top in the long term.
I agree it’s more difficult when it comes to horse racing because the same event never occurs twice so we don’t get a recurring 50/50 scenario like the coinflip or a recurring 80/20 like the poker hand.
However the concept is still the same but just more difficult to appreciate.
- Total Posts 17716
Jamsym
Poker cards, like tossing coins, are predictable over a long run, and lend themselves to probability percentages.
Horses however aren’t, which is why the real art is in predicting, not pricing.
Also the real reason, imo, why so many TV pundits (and quite a few on here ) opt for the ‘value’ call; they haven’t the nous for the former, so try to compensate/obfuscate with the latterJust because you can’t repeat the same event over and over like coins or cards dosen’t mean value dosen’t exist.
In every race each horse has some % chance of winning. This is a fact. The skill is your judgement of what that % chance of winning is vs the bookmakers judgement.
Personally i think Kauto Star will win the Gold Cup. If he was 1/4 on though i wouldn’t back him because i don’t believe he has an 80% chance of winning. I think more of a 50% chance. If Denman was offered at 100/1 i’d have my largest ever bet on him even though i think Kauto Star will win.
This is because i know every horse has some % chance of winning and personally i believe Denmans chance is more than 1% and actually somewhere around 35%.
This is the spreadsheet of my e/w bets in 2008 (need to update 19th Jan to present day). Now you can all go on about value as much as you like, but my bets are selected by extensive form study. The selection I go with is the horse I think will win as a result of my form study. For any bet where I did not back a winner or get a place then that bet was no value whatsoever. For every bet that won or got placed then that bet was value. The horse that I think will win the race has to be in my opinion value, but it all comes back to winner or loser, if I backed a loser then the selection was clearly not value no matter how you may try and dress it up.
The shortest priced horse I backed was 100/30 and the biggest priced horse was 66/1. On my e/w bets I judge them on winning and losing and if I am showing a profit at the end of a period then I am doing good. If I am showing a loss at the end of a period then I am doing bad. I dont need to make myself feel better at the end of a losing month by saying oh well I lost this month but at least I know my picks were value. If its a losing month I just say "oh well its a losing month and I know full well that losing months will happen but as long as I have more winning months than I do losing months then I will win long term". Value is an excuse to hide behind in my opinion. Results and profit/loss is the be all and end all not value. You will make a profit long term by selecting horses that win races not by selecting losers that you have convinced yourself are ‘value’.1st-Jan Cheltenham 14:45 Oscar Park 5/1 4/1 9th £200.00 -£200.00 1pnt E/W
Catterick 15:00 Flake 5/1 4/1 1st £312.50 £112.50 1/2pnt E/W
Cheltenham 15:25 Blazing Bailey 7/1 11/2 1st £437.50 £550.00 1/2pnt E/W
2nd-Jan Folkestone 12:30 Brilliant Lad 9/1 8/1 PU £100.00 £450.00 1/2pnt E/W
Folkestone 13:30 Symbosis 33/1 25/1 4th £50.00 £400.00 1/4pnt E/W
Ayr 13:40 Calin Royal 18/1 11/1 6th £50.00 £350.00 1/4pnt E/W
Ayr 14:45 Villon 4/1 5/1 2nd £20.00 £330.00 1pnt E/W
Ayr 14:45 Master Sebastian 5/1 7/2 1st £600.00 £930.00 1pnt E/W
Wolverhampton 14:55 Looks The Business 5.5 7/2 1st £450.00 £1380.00 1pnt WIN
Wolverhampton 14:55 Atlantic Gamble 6.0 10/3 4th £100.00 £1280.00 1pnt WIN
3rd-Jan Fontwell 14:20 Randwick Roar 14/1 8/1 6th £200.00 £1080.00 1pnt E/W
Fontwell 14:20 Im Supreme 9/1 5/1 5th £200.00 £880.00 1pnt E/W
Fontwell 15:25 Strolling Vagabond 11/2 11/2 PU £200.00 £680.00 1pnt E/W
Wolverhampton 19:20 Twosheetstothewind 20/1 18/1 4th £50.00 £630.00 1/4pnt E/W
Wolverhampton 19:50 Beauchamp Turbo 25/1 25/1 7th £50.00 £580.00 1/4pnt E/W
Wolverhampton 21:20 Lopinot 10/1 8/1 6th £100.00 £480.00 1/2pnt E/W
4th-Jan Southwell 13:10 Her Name Is Rio 5/1 7/1 7th £200.00 £280.00 1pnt E/W
Lingfield 14:50 Stolen Moments 12/1 7/1 3rd £140.00 £420.00 1pnt E/W
Wolverhampton 19:50 Compton Classic 8.0 15/2 1st £350.00 £770.00 1/2pnt WIN
Wolverhampton 21:20 Tanforan 12/1 12/1 2nd £70.00 £840.00 1/2pnt E/W
5th-Jan Sandown 13:00 Ceoperk 66/1 20/1 3rd £50.00 £790.00 1/4pnt E/W
Sandown 14:05 Hasty Prince 10/1 7/1 2nd £75.00 £865.00 3/4pnt E/W
Sandown 14:05 Bleu Superb 18/1 20/1 5th £150.00 £715.00 3/4pnt E/W
Wincanton 15:20 Spring Lover 6/1 7/1 PU £100.00 £615.00 1/2pnt E/W
Wincanton 15:55 Carlylon Bay 15/2 5/1 PU £100.00 £515.00 1/2pnt E/W
Kempton 18:50 Double Spectre 25/1 33/1 9th £100.00 £415.00 1/2pnt E/W
Kempton 19:20 Finmore Queen 10/1 11/1 2nd £100.00 £515.00 1pnt E/W
Kempton 19:50 Waterline Twenty 4/1 4/1 2nd £0 £0 £515.00 1pnt E/W
6th-Jan Southwell 13:40 Put It On The Card 20/1 20/1 10th £200.00 £315.00 1pnt E/W
Southwell 14:40 Speed Dial Harry 8/1 11/1 4th £200.00 £115.00 1pnt E/W
Southwell 15:10 Nimmello 8/1 9/1 2nd £60.00 £175.00 1pnt E/W
7th-Jan Southwell 13:20 Flores Sea 12.0 4/1 4th £100.00 £75.00 1pnt Win
Southwell 13:20 Figaro Flyer 9.2 3/1 5th £100.00 -£25.00 1pnt Win
Taunton 15:10 Wizard Of Edge 4.0 9/4 3rd £100.00 -£125.00 1pnt Win
Taunton 15:10 Jaloux Destruval 8.2 17/2 2nd £100.00 -£225.00 1pnt Win
8th-Jan Leicester 13:20 Snifina 6/1 9/2 3rd £20.00 -£205.00 1/2pnt E/W
Leicester 14:50 Bormo 13/2 11/2 3rd £30.00 -£175.00 1/2pnt E/W
Leicester 15:20 High Tech Made 6/1 11/2 5th £100.00 -£275.00 1/2pnt E/W
9th-Jan Lingfield 13:50 North South Divide 7/2 7/2 2nd £45.00 -£320.00 1 1/2pnt E/W
Kempton 16:00 Red Wine 16/1 12/1 7th £100.00 -£420.00 1/2pnt E/W
10th-Jan Hereford 13:30 Cooldine 9/2 7/1 8th £200.00 -£620.00 1pnt E/W
11th-Jan Kelso 14:10 Oliverjohn 14/1 12/1 4th £200.00 -£820.00 1pnt E/W
Kempton 20:50 Spring Goddess 9/2 7/2 4th £200.00 -£1020.00 1pnt E/W
12th-Jan Warwick 14:00 Brave Villa 11/1 9/1 6th £100.00 -£1120.00 1/2pnt E/W
Warwick 14:30 Trust Fund 8/1 10/1 PU £200.00 -£1320.00 1pnt E/W
Warwick 14:30 Dargent 25/1 18/1 1st £1500.00 £180.00 1/2pnt E/W
Warwick 15:30 Ballyshan 15/2 5/1 1st £900.00 £1080.00 1pnt E/W
Warwick 15:30 Buena Vista 10/1 14/1 4th £200.00 £880.00 1pnt W/W
Wolverhampton 20:50 Art Historian 12/1 11/1 10th £200.00 £680.00 1pnt E/W
Wolverhampton 20:50 Niqaab 10/3 9/2 2nd £34.00 £646.00 1pnt E/W
13th-Jan Kempton 12:45 Wherry 6/1 7/1 6th £200.00 £446.00 1pnt E/W
Kempton 12:45 Kaystar Ridge 20/1 14/1 8th £100.00 £346.00 1/2pnt E/W
Leopardstown 12:50 Mick Finan 40/1 25/1 FELL £100.00 £246.00 1/2pnt E/W
14th-Jan Fakenham 15:20 New Perk 8/1 10/1 4th £200.00 £46.00 1pnt E/W
15th-Jan Southwell 14:30 Only A Game 16/1 10/1 1st £1000.00 £1046.00 1/2pnt E/W
Kempton 14:40 Michaels Boy 12/1 12/1 3rd £70.00 £1116.00 1/2pnt E/W
16th-Jan Newcastle 12:30 Ems Royalty 9/1 12/1 7th £100.00 £1016.00 1/2pnt E/W
Newcastle 12:30 Pelo Du Bief 20/1 10/1 1st £1250.00 £2266.00 1/2pnt E/W
Lingfield 14:50 Art Man 9/1 7/1 1st £1080.00 £3346.00 1pnt E/W
Kempton 18:20 King Of Charm 10/1 8/1 3rd £50.00 £3396.00 1/2pnt E/W
Kempton 21:20 Underfire 15/2 6/1 4th £100.00 £3296.00 1/2pnt E/W
17th-Jan Southwell 14:30 Dickie Le Davoir 7/1 11/2 4th £100.00 £3196.00 1/2pnt E/W
Southwell 15:00 Bentley 7.60 9/2 2nd £100.00 £3096.00 1pnt Win
Southwell 15:00 Egyptian Lord 8.40 10/1 8th £100.00 £2996.00 1pnt Win
Nad Al Sheba 17:05 Familiar Territory 13/2 4/1 2nd £62.50 £3058.50 1pnt E/W
Nad Al Sheba 18:05 Vortex 11/1 10/1 7th £100.00 £2958.50 1/2pnt E/W
Wolverhampton 19:20 Maddison County 20/1 25/1 8th £100.00 £2858.00 1/2pnt E/W
Wolverhampton 20:20 Little Firecracker 20/1 16/1 7th £100.00 £2758.00 1/2pnt E/W
18th-Jan Catterick 12:40 Martin House 11/1 11/1 2nd £60.00 £2818.00 1/2pnt E/W
Catterick 13:10 Chef De Cour 10/3 3/1 3rd £34.00 £2784.00 1 1/2pnt E/W
Catterick 15:20 Fencote Gold 11/2 13/2 PU £200.00 £2584.00 1pnt E/W
Catterick 15:20 Loch Osaig 9/2 4/1 1st £540.00 £3124.00 1pnt E/W
Kempton 19:50 Takaamul 14/1 10/1 1st £1680.00 £4804.00 1pnt E/W
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