- This topic has 146 replies, 48 voices, and was last updated 13 years, 7 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Cotswold Charmer
is a different horse to the one Barafundle beat last year at levels,i would make him my "Value" bet Ginge,not a betting race for me though!
Get on Barafundle 4/1 now with VC in the 1:35 Newbury tomorrow. I make it a 5/2 (28%) chance.
Excellent stuff Ginge! Well done!
- Total Posts 17716
Id have to say its completely for mugs if your objective is to consistantly win.
But in all seriousness most people back horses yes to win but more so for the excitement,craic
Anyway the easiest way to answet this question is just to look at Paddy Powers share price over the last 4/5 years.
They make money because of mugs, and looking at teir share price its quite obvious that 90% of their customers must be mugs
Id have to say its completely for mugs if your objective is to consistantly win.
But in all seriousness most people back horses yes to win but more so for the excitement,craic
Anyway the easiest way to answet this question is just to look at Paddy Powers share price over the last 4/5 years.
They make money because of mugs, and looking at teir share price its quite obvious that 90% of their customers must be mugs
I’d say 90% is a consercative estimate,97/98% i’d say would be more like it!
Jesus, Joncol. If you and I were unluckily shipwrecked off Borneo, and landed on a desert island full of slavering, starving cannibals, I’d throw myself into the stewpot.
Would you like to bet on a certainty?
Bookmakers are so wide apart at the moment in the betting for the 12:25 Newbury, it is possible to back all 5 horses and still make a profit.
50 points @ Evens (WH) Binocular returns 100
25 points @ 3/1 (L) Peddlers Cross returns 100
17 points @ 5/1 (sky, PP, SJ) Starluck returns 102
6 points @ 16/1 (VC) Nearby returns 102
1 point @ 100/1 (BF) Bygones Of Brid returns 101
Stake 99 pointsValue Is EverythingI think if you stick with technical situations like each way anomalies you can make a guaranteed profit, especially if you arb on an exchange. Having done this quite successfully for a while I am now heavily restricted by on-line bookmakers and looking for new angles.
I have been dabbling in the technical aspects of ante post betting, where there is time to get to a betting shop and bookmakers’ penchant for including doubtful runners plays into the each-way punter’s hands. This was about to pay off in the Fighting Fifth until bets were voided when the venue changed. Also the Hennessy was disappointing in having very few non-runners in the end. As a result the day-of-race prices were better than ante-post for most runners and there were generous BOG and fifth place concessions. Nevertheless I think there is technical money to be made if you pick the right races.
There is also another technical feature of ante-post that is rarely mentioned. This is what Americans call the correlated parlay. Obvious correlated bets are stopped or offered special terms by bookmakers e.g. Imperial C to win both King George and Gold Cup is not allowed as a win double. I am looking for the less obvious ones and there appear to be loads of them ….
I have not worked out my book for the Hennessey yet TAPK.
Ginge,thanks for the PM explaining your theories regarding how you come to your conclusions with prices.I spent an hour earlier trying to respond via PM myself and twice i failed to send it!
TAPK may well be a genius with horses but he"s a complete dick when it comes to computers! Thanks again mate!
regards,
Gord.I have not read all ten pages but have glanced through most comments. To answer the initial question
"Is Horse Racing Betting for Mugs?"
No its not, but there are a substantial number of mugs who do bet
like your thinking kasparov, but how can you return profits?
Not sure which method you are referring to. On the ante post e/w I returned profits by backing China Rock and Sizing Europe e/w at 1/5 first 3 in what turned out to be a 7 runner JN Wine race with a strong favourite (Kauto)and four outsiders.These broke even as both horses only placed. However, I had hedged the win parts of those bets by backing Kauto for a win so I made a profit. There was a slight risk of an outsider winning and I could have avoided this by laying CR and SE for the win but I did it the other way round as I couldn’t see anything beating all of the first 3 in the betting.
I am reluctant to divulge correlated parlays as they seem to be the dog that didn’t bark. i.e. the fact nobody writes them down suggests there are people out there making money at them. However, similar concepts have emerged in the literature from time to time and been closed off, such as the Beverley tricast based on perming runners with a draw advantage. The problem with the correlation part is that it requires some in-depth knowledge of racing (which I don’t have a lot of) whereas the technical each-way betting is really a know-nothing arbitrage.
Race fixing??
Buick at Haydock??
Moore last Sunday??
King Cecil guide us all through this rough patch
- Total Posts 17716
For horse race bettors it is true that:
a) The participants of all other than horse racing types of betting should be locked and the key thrown away.
b) Some horse race bettors who double elsewhere may of course be such as described.I was making it pay at least £50 per day, every day at one point. When I was 5k up I bought a nice little Fiesta Si with alloys all round. Then one race changed me completely when I got offered 6/1 in-running for a largish sum at Fakenham about a horse that couldn’t possibly lose, didn’t lose, and got disqualified for taking the RIGHT course.
They dolled the final fence off because of low sun, my one jumped it after not seeing the flag, and everything else went around it.
My gripe was that I was offered the 6/1 a full 10secs before the incident happened on live tv! If it looks too good to be true …
I suddenly realised that there were people cleaning up a lot of money off of mugs thinking they were watching ‘live’.
I said to myself that i’d been had and never bet again. To say i’d never been as angry would be an understatement.
This was before BAGS cards were introduced and the pattern was turned into a sponsorship boot sale, so I probably bailed out at the right time. The game isn’t the same now. This was before they started calling races things like "The ‘Come to Kempton town centre, we have loads of lovely shops and many places to drink and be merry’ selling stakes".RD
The key point is that nobody is required to bet on any particular event. It’s the choice of the punter where and when he puts his money down. The fact that a large percentage of the betting population isn’t particularly choosy is surely no worse reflection on the betting industry than it is on any other business?
Betting is a negative expectation pursuit, the boookmakers/exchanges books ensure that is the case. However, without wishing to sound too arrogant, I reckon I could spend half an hour with any one of 80% of the betting population and, presuming that they were prepared to listen and act upon the knowledge, then I would expect them to at least lose less. Betting better is no more than applciation of a little common sense, but as in so many fields, greed and impetuousness gets the better of the majority. Some accept this, but others blame everyone but themselves.
My own betting this jumps season has not been as profitable as in previous years. I managed a good profit from Cheltenham, as has been the case for a few seasons, but I was treading water for much of the time. The solution? Stand back, look at my methods and see what is working and what isn’t, and then move forward next season basing my betting on the more profitable areas. But what percentage of the betting population ever takes the chance to do that? Quite a low one I suggest.
Is horse race betting for mugs? No.
Do mugs bet on horse racing? Yes.Rob
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.