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It seems to be all the rage on here for posters to keep a diary of their thoughts and selections. Some make for interesting reading and it has to be said that there are some excellent judges on here.
Thought I’d keep a thread of antepost punts on Irish horses for the Cheltenham Festival. Hopefully we can make a few bob. Roll on March!
Dunguib Supreme Novices Hurdle – 10pts win @ 5/2 (Paddy Power)
Holds all the Irish horses on bumper form and hasn’t shown any signs of weakness in his two hurdles starts to date. I doubt anything in Ireland will get him off the bridle before Cheltenham and I’d anticipate that 5/2 to be long gone after the Royal Bond on Wednesday. There would be a slight concern that he might end up in the Champion Hurdle but I don’t think that is Phillip Fenton’s style and he is only entered in the novice hurdle at Christmas. Surely if the Champion Hurdle was under consideration then they would be planning to see how he gets on against the likes of Hurricane Fly, Sublimity, Solwhit and Voler La Vedette before Cheltenham.
Hurricane Fly Champion Hurdle – 10 pts win @ 11/2 (Paddy Power)
The Champion Hurdle picture is very murky after both the Morgiana and the Fighting Fifth but I would expect that picture to be a lot clearer after December with the Bula, the Christmas Hurdle and the Leopardstown Hurdle all down for decision. I was disappointed with Hurricane Fly after Punchestown but in hindsight it might not have been the worst run. He had to make his own running and he pulled Paul’s arms out for the first mile. Turning in he still looked to be going best of all but he seemed to blow up before the last as Solwhit and Muirhead went away from him. Given the way he improved from his first run to his second last year, I think its entirely feasible that he just needed the run in the Morgiana. Willie’s comments pre and post-race suggested so, as did the market.
The way Go Native won on Saturday gives me great hope that Hurricane Fly can be a genuine Champion Hurdle horse. Twice last year, Hurricane Fly laughed at the Noel Meade horse. I fully expect a better show from Hurricane Fly next time out and the 11/2 that is currently available is far too big.
Pandorama RSA Chase – 2 pts win @ 25/1 (Ladbrokes)
I think this horse has become something of a forgotten horse over the summer. He was one of the best ever to graduate from the point-to-point field and he has only ever been beaten once under rules. That defeat came at the hands of the mighty Mikael D’Haguenet when Pandorama was attempting to give the Mullins horse 4lbs and it was later revealed that he pulled up lame after the race. Noel decided not to send him to Cheltenham after he benefitted from Cousin Vinny’s fall in the Deloitte but it is definitely on his agenda this year.
He didn’t touch a twig on his chasing debut at Punchestown but he jumped markedly to his left at each fence, probably giving away the guts of twenty lengths over the course of the 2m4 yet he still got up to beat the decent Clan Tara on the run in. Noel has schooled him since and he jumped perfectly straight but jumping out to his left shouldn’t hinder his chances around Cheltenham like it would at Punchestown or Fairyhouse. We won’t see the best of him till he goes over three miles on a galloping left handed track. I think he’ll win the Knight Frank at Leopardstown over Christmas and shorten up significantly for the RSA.
The extent to which this horse has been underestimated and forgotten is illustrated in the betting for Wednesday’s Drinmore. Alpha Ridge, a maiden over fences and a horse who Pandorama beat by 26L at Navan last year, is shorter than him in the market. That makes no sense to me and I think Ladbrokes 25/1 for the RSA is an insult to this horse’s ability and potential.
Cooldine Gold Cup – 2pts win @ 12/1 (Coral)
Kauto Star and Denman dominate the market but I think there’s value to be had looking beyond them. I’ve nearly always remained loyal to second season chasers in this race and it is a strategy that has served me well.
The form of last season’s RSA Chase may not be worth much but Cooldine couldn’t have won any easier. He jumped well and bounded clear up the hill. He was the only horse that could live with the lightning gallop set by Carruthers and he was the only horse that really stayed galloping at the death. Given that Denman will try to gallop the field into submission again, I’m going to take a chance that Cooldine could be one of the few horses that can live with him. Obviously Denman is a totally different kettle of fish to Carruthers but there should still be improvement to come from Cooldine.
He still showed signs of greeness at times last year and he can improve on his jumping as well I feel. I’ve been looking through some of Beneficial’s progeny and they all seem to relish a trip – Sweet Kiln, Gungadu, Freds Benefit, GVA Ireland, Corskeagh Royale. I think Cooldine will relish 3m2 in yielding ground around Cheltenham.
He may not beat the top two in the market but I think at 12/1, he is the value play at the moment. Too much is being read into his reversal at Punchestown in April when he had a lung infection and if he was to run Kauto Star to five or six lengths around Kempton (a track that wouldn’t suit as much as Cheltenham), I doubt he’d still be a 12/1 shot for the Gold Cup.
Aran Concerto Gold Cup – 1pt win @ 40/1 (Coral)
Bit of a shot in the dark with this one but I reckon it could be one of the most interesting outsiders. Aran Concerto is still very much an unexposed horse. He is two from two over fences and he has only been beaten twice in his entire career of eight runs.
He has had his problems and is clearly a difficult horse to keep sound. However, they think the world of him at Tu Va and he could still be anything over three miles. He won a moderate beginners chase at Navan last November before returning in the Powers Gold Cup in April and holding off Barker in a photo. To win such a good Grade 1 like that on only his second start over fences off a break of six months was quite an achievement, especially when you consider that Barker went on to bolt up against the Arkle winner at Punchestown.
Aran Concerto is down to run in the John Durkan on Sunday before possibly heading for the Lexus over Christmas. If he can stay sound and he gets to Cheltenham, I reckon he might give me a run for my money at 40/1.
An Siorrac Foxhunters Chase – 2pts win @ 3/1 (Cashmans)
Not exactly a race that many would be punting at the end of November but his one start under rules at Fairyhouse last February had everyone drooling in anticipation, but unfortunately he didn’t go to Cheltenham. He is being prepped for it this year though and Enda Bolger has high hopes for him.
He won both his points with consumate ease at Dromohane last year, beating the useful Carronhills in the second of those. He was punted into odds on favourite when he went to Fairyhouse and he won by the width of the straight under Nina. Every reason to believe then that An Siorrac is something of a machine and if he gets to March fit and well, he could be closer to 1/3 than 3/1.
Dunguib Supreme Novices Hurdle – 10pts win @ 5/2 (Paddy Power)
I’ll have some more of that 5/2 before it goes tomorrow afternoon.
Total staked so far – 37 pts
Very much a case of waiting to see what Saturday brings TAPK. Backed him for the Arkle around this time last year because there was never really any doubt about his target but if he was to disappoint on Saturday I think Tommy might be looking to take up his entry in the Lexus to see how he gets on over further.
If he was to run well on Saturday (ie. maybe beaten 2-3 lengths) I think we will see him lining up in the Champion Chase.
Backed him for the Arkle around this time last year because there was never really any doubt about his target
Never a truer word spoken!I think when this fellows tuned to the minute he could be anything,i really hope connections find his ideal trip soon though!King George,Champion ch,Gold cup,Ryanair!Tough call!Got to have good ground though!
Got to have good ground though!
That is the key to him alright and there’s none of it around over here at the moment.
Good start for the thread today with Dunguib now into a best price 2/1 and I can’t see that lasting too long. The Champion Hurdle all but ruled out as well by Fenton.
Pandorama now generally a 10-12/1 chance. He will be even better going left handed over further. Can see that price halving after the Knight Frank.
Captain Cee Bee Arkle – 3pts win @ 25/1 (Labrokes)
I hadn’t really a strong opinion on the Arkle yet but I was very impressed with Captain Cee Bee’s reappearance. The magic sign’s 25/1 is too big about a horse with so much ability. I expect he’ll give Sizing Europe a serious race on Stephens’ Day so I might as well avail of that price now.
Dunguib Supreme Novices – 10pts win @ 2/1 (Blue Square)
With Philip Fenton all but ruling out the Champion Hurdle yesterday, I can’t see the 2/1 about Dunguib lasting too long. If he only has one more run in the Deloitte before Cheltenham, it wouldn’t be beyond the realms of possibility for him to be an odds on shot on the day. I don’t think there’s a horse in Ireland within a country mile of him and I haven’t seen any novice of note in England yet. Long time before March though I suppose.
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