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Plenty to like about a few here. No surprise to see CONTENT as fav with Moore choosing her over PORT FAIRY. I thought Mullins LOPE DE LILAS was hugely under-priced on what she’s achieved. I have backed HANALIA from the Murtagh stable at 17/2. She won a decent looking listed contest last time with two AOB fillies subsequently scoring at stakes level. Hopefully the trip is well within her grasp.
HANALIA 17/2
Ryan has probably switched to Content because of the ground. Improved behind Bluestocking and Emily Upjohn last time out at 10f on a softish surface. Aidan says all of his wouldn’t want soft ground, but when does he ever say one of his is better on soft? Content’s form so far has been best with give. However, the more rain then the more stamina will be needed and Content’s stamina is yet to be proven. In contrast, Port Fairy looks all stamina. Appearing to be beaten in the Ribblesdale before fighting back. That was on pretty firm going so this should (if truly run) be advantageous. However, if we would need to take her ability to handle soft on trust. Well beaten on very soft ground on debut, but many from the stable are well beaten on debut without it being to do with the ground. The Cheshire Oaks was run on goodish ground and at the time was Port Fairy’s PB. (She has had only 4 runs in her life). Her action is imo one you would not say is a particularly firm or soft ground action…
Anyway, there hasn’t been as much rain as they expected (as yet) so Ryan may well be thinking he’s made the wrong choice. First two races are good ground times.
Lava Stream looked as though she was going to beat Port Fairy at Ascot – basically outstayed. However, it was not that she didn’t stay. Pulled clear of the remainder and is a rapidly improving filly. Was that significant improvement down to the firm surface? Won a couple of much less quality races on much softer last season, so there is quite a lot of hope there. That said, wouldn’t want it very soft as her stamina may be at it’s limit here. Even with those question marks, fact is she’s improving and was only beaten a neck by Port Fairy. At almost a double figure price she’s a must bet for me.
War Chimes represents the Epsom form. The 50/1 shot improving massively to be beaten just 4 1/2 lengths into 3rd by Ezeliya. Today is a longer price than You Got Me, who was 3 3/4 lengths further back. Caught You Looking also well beaten. On that run Timeform have War Chimes top rated here! However, she would still need to improve again if this is a median average renewal and there’s plenty of unexposed fillies who could improve past her. Also has to be said, her trainer is in nowhere near the excellent form he was in at the time of the English Oaks… Therefore just a saver.
You Got Me was left to go clear in the Lingfield Oaks off a good pace. Didn’t go that fast in the Epsom Oaks and struggled… Then setting too strong a pace in the Ascot Oaks. Hopefully he’ll get a good ride today in order to bring her stamina into play without going too fast too early. Still can’t see her winning though.
Can see why Hanalia has been popular over the last few days. Like Lava Stream supplemented. Murtagh had a good day yesterday, winner and two seconds (one a length and the other short head), is in pretty good form. Hanalia came from last to first to win a listed event. However, the first three home were in the back four positions after a furlong (the other one of the four a 50/1 rank outsider). So although Hanalia was probably the best of the Listed race, the style of her win might flatter her in an overly strongly run affair. Not certain to stay either. That said, her career is only around 9 weeks old and has plenty of improvement in her.
Purple Lily is one I like. Not far behind the Epsom Oaks winner in Ireland despite the rider losing his iron close home. That race over 10f, outpaced back at a mile in the Irish 1000. She loves some give underfoot but has stamina to prove. By Calyx but the dam related to an Irish Oaks third. The way Purple Lily races (relaxes well) gives her a better chance of staying than her sire suggests.
The French horse Dare To Dream isn’t out of it. Beaten 2 1/4 lengths in the French Oaks. But travelled pretty well that day and didn’t stay on in a way that – to me – suggests she’ll do a lot better at 12f.
The others don’t seem good enough. I’d just mention the maiden Rubies Are red. Has obviously been well thought of in the past and extremely well bred, but has disappointed in all races this season. However, headgear for the first time.
My biggest bets are Port Fairy and Lava Stream. Lesser win would be Purple Lily. Saver War Crimes.
Value Is EverythingYou Got to Me’s first time tongue strap and a more conventional ride meant she settled well this time.
Content had to wait for room but doubt it made the difference between winning and losing.
Purple Lily travelled well for a long way. Thought she was going to make me regret a late LAY bet, but couldn’t sustain the effort. Would the Nassau come too soon? Probably not good enough anyway.
Elizabeth Jane showed a lot of improvement to be 4th. Strangely, if there is a real top class filly in the field it could be her.
Of the also rans:
The visor did not work a second time for Port Fairy. Soon outpaced in the straight.
War Chimes might need softer ground.
Lava Stream might need firmer.Value Is Everything
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