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was looking at the card there looks a tricky race to pick something, if Beef or salmon runs i will back him as i always do, only small wager, but for my real bet not sure i havent heard anything for any horse does anyone have any fancy for it??
The race revolves around God’s horse Royal County Star for me. This has been his target all season but he’s best on good ground. At the moment Fairyhouse is heavy, but we’re having a dry week. I’ll be waiting for the day and assessing ground conditions before playing here. Two that interest me are Notre Pere, who’s looked as though this extreme test would suit and Well Run who has course form, but is out of the weights if the Beef runs.Fascinating to see if Pomme Tiepy is allowed to run- you’d have to say it’s unlikely, given that WPM was worried about the test the Sun Alliance would be for a 5-y-o. It was noticeable how late Ladbrokes priced up- I reckon the full implications of their ante-post money back offer are beginning to dawn on head office….
I reckon the full implications of their ante-post money back offer are beginning to dawn on head office….
…particularly with clients such as your good self carvillshill
carvillshill,
glad to hear you’re on Notre Pere’s side. Managed to get on at 20s with William Hill when the five-days were confirmed on wednesday.
The two I like from the original entries were Notre Pere and Abbeybraney, who have looked like real staying handicap chasers in the making in their novice chases this season.
Abbeybraney dropped out, so left me with NP. Beef Or Salmon almost certain to run, according to quotes from Hourigan this morning, so with a weight of 10-7 and loads of the others out of the handicap, I’m hoping for a big run….
Notre Pere is a dour stayer, totally fits the bill, they are always out on their feet when they jump the last.
JohnJ.
Ladbrokes are pretty much always the last to price up on ante post, both in England and Ireland. Saves money on odds compliers when you can just copy the other firms!
The point is that this offer was supposed to advertise their "new improved and expanded Irish ante-post service" which would have made you think they’d be a little more adventurous pricing up our biggest jumps race of the year…
They are NRNB on all Irish ante-post this year if you bet in one of their Irish shops.
Is Hordago running in it? will have a small ew on him if he is…
Hordago down to run. Best-priced 50/1 with blue square but will be running from 16 lbs out of the handicap if Beef or Salmon stays in.
I think the Beef has been crying out for a test of stamina this year and odds of 25/1 with conditions looking like being testing are more than fair. Definite concerns though that he may end up getting too far behind in a big field.
can’t have beef at any price to be honest.
Even with the three-pound drop from the handicapper, he will have to be near his best form to lug top weight around for 3-and-a-half miles.
Not sure Fairyhouse will suit either – a different track to Leopardstown with a lot of hills and valleys. I think it’s no coincidence that his best runs have been on the relatively flat, often sodden tracks of Leopardstown and Haydock.
There will surely be too many better handicapped rivals lower down the order and it would be a mighty run were he to finish in the first four.
Not sure about Cailin Alainn, Royal County Star is probably still well handicapped but makes a few errors and probably better on top of the ground. Sir Frederick also needs quick ground. Pomme Tiepy is on a great weight but a 5yo mare who fell last time out? No thanks. Homer Wells has conditions in his favour but form hasn’t been quite good enough this season.
My three against the field at this stage are:
Notre Pere (I’ve backed at 20s with WH)
Preists Leap (still pondering a bet)
Ballycullen Boy (backed at 25s with Ladbrokes, after carvillshill’s word on Lads’ ante-post pledge on Irish races…)d.
I have to agree with DJ that 25/1 about Beef or Salmon looks a bit big, especially for e/w punters. He’s been running like this race will suit all season, and with just a bit of rain between now and Monday he’ll likely get his ground. As long as Michael Hourigan has finally realised that he’s a bit too old by now to sprint past horses as the race heats up- especially giving them loads of weight- and thus asks for a bit more use to be made of him then I think he’s got a great place chance.
Not sure where you’re coming from with that comment about Fairyhouse disraelite- it has one gentle hill up to Ballyhack but is as close to a flat track as you’ll get- if there are "lots of hills and valleys" they’ve been hidden from me for the last thirty-odd years!
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