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Looks a really competitive race as usual, here’s a few I think will run well:
Four Commanders ran a great race at Cheltenham. Butlers Cabin, Notre Pere and Rare Bob are some of the other novices who have ran well here in the past. He’s a superb jumper who has had a good season, placing in three graded chases before Cheltenham. I thought he was a bit disappointing behind Líon Na Bearnaí two runs ago, but he left that run behind him with a bold display last time out. I thought he looked the winner turning in at Cheltenham but he was outstayed in the finish, the 3m 5f trip should be ideal.
Quiscover Fontaine was 4th in the race last year, and I think he can go closer if he runs this time around. I’ve followed his career closely since he scuppered a bet I had on Fionn Trá in the Land Rover bumper a few years ago. Last year he was ridden like a non stayer but he finished his race strongly, he was just too late on the premises. He’s been kept over hurdles since, which imo shows Willie Mullins thinks he has a big pot in him off his current chase mark. Also engaged in the Aintree Grand National.
Glam Gerry won as he liked in a handicap chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. He had any amount in hand that day, but was beaten when he unseated in the Thyestes. I’d be willing to forgive him that run as the ground was extremely heavy and many horses found it tough going. He has since ran well at Cheltenham behind Salut Flo in the Byrne Group Plate. I think he could run into a place again here.
Ninetieth Minute was injured for a year before returning to be 2nd to Shot From The Hip at Fairyhouse in January. He then ran third behind Gates Of Rome and Shinrock Paddy, before hacking up back at Fairyhouse last time out. He’ll handle any ground and the step up in trip should suit. His chase rating is 10lbs lower than his hurdles mark and I think he’s almost certainly well handicapped. His lack of chase experience may count against him but I think he’s worth a bet.
Here’s my 1-2-3-4:
1 ~ Quiscover Fontaine 14/1
2 ~ Ninetieth Minute 12/1
3 ~ Four Commanders 10/1
4 ~ Glam Gerry 20/1Any thoughts?
I got it down to one!
Magnanimity
! 38’s on the machine tells its own story though!
I would have fancied On The Fringe, but I see he is missing from a few in the bookies markets so maybe he’s not expected to run. Pity, as I think this would be right up his street.
Final decs:
1 Roi Du Mee 11-7 Gordon Elliott 40/1
2 Magnanimity 11-2 D T Hughes 25/1
3 Osana 11-1 E J O’Grady 40/1
4 Allee Garde 10-13 W P Mullins 14/1
5 Catch Me 10-13 E J O’Grady 25/1
6 Gift Of Dgab 10-13 A J Martin 25/1
7 Lastoftheleaders 10-13 A L T Moore 16/1
8 Western Charmer 10-13 D T Hughes 25/1
9 Aigle D’Or 10-11 Nicky Henderson 20/1
10 Alfie Sherrin 10-9 Jonjo O’ Neill 14/1
11 Four Commanders 10-9 M F Morris 10/1
12 Groody Hill 10-9 C Roche 11/1
13 Leanne 10-9 W Harney 25/1
14 Prince Erik 10-9 D K Weld 33/1
15 Shakervilz 10-9 W P Mullins 25/1
16 Arabella Boy 10-8 E Bolger 28/1
17 Líon Na Bearnaí 10-8 Thomas Gibney 50/1
18 Ninetienth Minute 10-8 T J Taaffe 14/1
19 Cross Appeal 10-7 Noel Meade 12/1
20 Start Me Up 10-6 C F Swan 20/1
21 The Last Derby 10-6 Eoin Griffin 50/1
22 Paddy Pub 10-5 Kieran Purcell 25/1
23 Some Target 10-5 W P Mullins 25/1
24 Whatuthink 10-5 Oliver McKiernan 50/1
25 Whodoyouthink 10-5 Oliver McKiernan 50/1
26 Deal Done 10-4 D T Hughes 40/1
27 Out Now 10-4 E J O’Grady 25/1
28 Saddlers Storm 10-4 A J Martin 33/1
29 Glam Gerry 10-2 C A Murphy 20/1
30 Raptor 10-1 W P Mullins 33/1Disappointed Quiscover Fontaine is out, I believe Willie Mullins nominated him as his main hope in the RP a few days back. Must have changed his mind
He could be heading for Aintree.I’ve hoped for a while that Leanne would go for this, already on at 25’s, hoping there’s still more improvement to come. Think she’s a really decent contender at that price. At even bigger prices, I’ll probably take a chance with Deal Done @ 40’s, and Prince Erik @ 33’s.
Was surprised to see Deal Done swerve Cheltenham, but there’s a chance that could be a blessing. 40’s too big.
Prince Erik requires more of a leap of faith, but took in the tradiitonal route
of a run in a charity race last week, winning in "style". Seriously though, got a sneaky feeling this might have been the plan for him all along. Was well fancied for it last year, and hopefully a low key campaign over hurdles will have done the trick.GL
always found this hard race to find winner, im going for leanne and alfie sherrin
vf
Western Charmer
was well handicapped last year beating home 24 of his 25 rivals only to be beaten by a thrown in 6yo. He is an incredible price considering. Sunnyhillboy was behind him – a Cheltenham winner off a similar mark. Both he and Organisedconfusion seem to have been campaigned for this part of the year as was Sunnyhillboy so no surprise to see no form until Spring.
Arabella Boy
hasn’t shown his hand yet I don’t think. He’s still only young and hasn’t had as much luck as others. Looked immature last year and his latest performance has indicated, to me at least, that he’s coming of age and progressing in the way he was expected to.
Osana
is my kamikaze bet (a paltry 2.50 ew!). He’s well handicapped on old form and worth a shot at a trip. Goes against all accountable stats but should be fun to see how he gets on.
I fancied The Last Derby last year but felt he didn’t stay. This year i think A L T Moore has another improver in Ninetieth Minute who should stay ok and was rated much higher as a hurdler. 12/1 seems a good e/w price for me.
There’s some quite strong trends for this one – you’ve had to have won going right handed, and winning a chase over three miles plus is mandatory – so that knocks out the majority of the field.
Looking at the race, I think Cross Appeal, Lion Na Bearnai and Out Now make the most appeal. They’re my three against the field.
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
Nineteith Minute should stay and loves Fairyhouse; bred to stay but no evidence of that yet, so I’ve gone with the Lion horse in the hope of winning a few pennies towards my Grand National bets. I hope The Last Derby doesn’t win ’cause I’ve backed him a few times before. It will hurt even more if Magnanimity wins as I’ve been backing him all year….
I fancied The Last Derby last year but felt he didn’t stay. This year i think A L T Moore has another improver in Ninetieth Minute who should stay ok and was rated much higher as a hurdler. 12/1 seems a good e/w price for me.
Tom Taaffe trains ninetieth minute unless I have missed something.http://www.irishtimes.com/newspaper/sport/2012/0402/1224314232384.html
Glam Gerry being tipped up in lots of places but price gone now.
Had another look at this after my pick withdrew, and I agree with Venture to Cognac, I think Deal Done looks the right type for this and has got a nice weight at 10st 4lbs.
He was given a nice prep for this at Navan last month, over a distance obviously too short for him, but that should have him spot on.
Well done VTC taking the 40s, that’s gone but I’m happy taking 33s.
There’s some quite strong trends for this one – you’ve had to have won going right handed, and winning a chase over three miles plus is mandatory – so that knocks out the majority of the field.
Looking at the race, I think Cross Appeal, Lion Na Bearnai and Out Now make the most appeal. They’re my three against the field.
Tootle-tootle-parp, blowing my own trumpet like Miles Davis there…Hope you guys took a forecast
Twitter=@PGHenn
So don't run, just like the others always do
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