- This topic has 101 replies, 23 voices, and was last updated 8 years, 1 month ago by
.
-
Posts
-
ginger lets be honest the group 2 King Edward VII form is not worth the paper it is written on,which ever way you try and dress it up.For what is worth,i dont believe Across the Stars acted at epsom so him winning what looks to me a poor group2 hardly endorses the Derby.
Again imo you can not take Ulysses run in the derby as ‘fact’ as again he def did not act and as someone pointed out he got beat by an ok Chain Of Daisys.
Not a lover of throwing Group one form in the bin,but it dont to me look a great derby on form.it has a look of horses who would stay 3 around sedgefield in timeThats my take and again i am not a great to and fro debater and i have said want i think
Good points there nwalton. It’s true you can’t give Across The Bay and Ulysses improvement as proof of Derby form. Maybe I shouldn’t have used it on this thread.
Reason why I mentioned all of them is Steve said how rubbish the horses were who ran in the Derby.
Few didn’t run to form at Epsom and/or have improved since; not that any have imo improved past the first 3 home. Moonlight Magic, Ulysses, Deauville, Across The Stars, Cloth of Stars, Red Verdon, even Wings Of Desire have all shown better form since the Derby. Either coming back to form or improving or both. Do believe two or three were taken out of their comfort zone, so couldn’t perform. Others – Ulysses experience, Deauville better ridden more prominently than at Epsom, Moonlight Magic stable in poor form, Cloth Of Stars too free too near the strong pace, Wings Of Desire needs faster ground.Wings Of Desire was beaten 7 3/4 lengths by Harzand on good-soft and only 1 1/4 by Highland Reel on good-firm. Am not saying Harzand is a 6 1/2 lengths better horse than Highland Reel. H and HR are probably of similar merit, with WOD doing better on good-firm. This is an inexact science and why we all have different opinions.
Really, the only three that matter are Harzand, US Army Ranger and Idaho, who were clear of the rest anyway. One’s been injured, the other two have done pretty much what I’ve expected from an average Derby 1-3 (bar Idaho unseating).
Like to ask what other TRFers expected of the three?
Value Is EverythingWelcome CRW, I need your help here.
I truly don’t understand how the Irish Derby could have held up the Derby form as anything above what it was.
Idaho had raced Harzand twice before and lost both times. He lost again in the Irish Derby.
Harzand went into the Irish Derby rated 123 and came out of it rated 123. That spells same ol’, same ol’ for me.
Good Derby horses don’t need excuses. Anyone backing US Army Ranger this week at odds on, was expecting him to win it, fully wound up or not. How many races does it take to get him fit anyway for goodness sake?
The Racing Post gave Zhukova winning yesterday despite running 2 lbs below her rating. As far as they are concerned she didn’t improve in beating the Derby runner up.
Nobody is saying Harzand improved or did anything any better than he did at Epsom. Yes, the same horse.
“Good Derby horses don’t need excuses“. Slip Anchor, Shergar, Nijinsky, even Golden Horn.
You’re right Steve, Zhukova did not need to improve to beat a below par US Army Ranger.
Value Is EverythingIf you take US Army Ranger’s Derby run out of his form line, you are left with this:-
A maiden win of little or no significance.
A scramble home from Port Douglas in the Chester Vase, in receipt of 4lbs. The runner up was used as a pacemaker the next twice and might as well have been at Chester in what looked a staged race to set up the favourite. That Chester Vase has turned out to be absolute rubbish.
A 4th place in a Group 3 in the Royal Whip. He seemed unable to go fast enough there and winner Success Days was slaughtered next time.
A 2nd place in another group 3, to a horse deemed to have run 2 lbs below her best.
There is nothing to suggest he is a horse of 120 ability in those races and it’s the Derby run we have to trust on a notorious course for horses failing to act upon.
Gun to your head, for real, could you have implicit faith in the Derby rating? I know I couldn’t and my feeling is US Army Ranger has not matched on the track the strong expectations from the connections.
For sure, he’s been an expensive fellow to follow.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
If you take US Army Ranger’s Derby run out of his form line, you are left with this:-
A maiden win of little or no significance.
A scramble home from Port Douglas in the Chester Vase, in receipt of 4lbs. The runner up was used as a pacemaker the next twice and might as well have been at Chester in what looked a staged race to set up the favourite. That Chester Vase has turned out to be absolute rubbish.
A 4th place in a Group 3 in the Royal Whip. He seemed unable to go fast enough there and winner Success Days was slaughtered next time.
A 2nd place in another group 3, to a horse deemed to have run 2 lbs below her best.
There is nothing to suggest he is a horse of 120 ability in those races and it’s the Derby run we have to trust on a notorious course for horses failing to act upon.
Gun to your head, for real, could you have implicit faith in the Derby rating? I know I couldn’t and my feeling is US Army Ranger has not matched on the track the strong expectations from the connections.
For sure, he’s been an expensive fellow to follow.
But you can’t take the Derby run from US Army Ranger’s profile unless there is a possible reason for him being flattered. It does not matter that some rivals failed to handle the course, fact is Harzand and Idaho ran well. What reason is there for US Army Ranger to be grossly flattered by his position between Harzand and Idaho Steve? Harzand and Idaho went on to frank the form in Ireland and York, so how can US Army Ranger’s performance be devalued?
You are also yet to give a reason why US Army Ranger wasn’t seen for 78 days after Epsom, missing several important races. If it wasn’t injury then why? If it was injury then it’s a good reason for subsequent defeats.
I don’t think US Army Ranger is 100% genuine, Steeplechsing made a good point that he may be difficult to win with. But still should’ve done better.
Value Is EverythingI’ve watched the replay of the Enterprise Stakes, including the head on, and imo, USAR ran on very genuinely and straight as a die.
But the winner stole a good lead coming around the bend, and Ryan was hands and heels down the straight while Pat Smullen was giving everything on the winner. Ryan didn’t go for his whip until the 150 yd marker when 4L adrift of the winner, and he closed to 1/2L at the line. The pacemaker set a very moderate pace, which didn’t help a closer at the finish.
Maybe Ryan was under instructions not to give the horse a hard race with a view to his next race. But Leopardstown is a tricky track, and nobody rides it better than Pat Smullen, and I don’t think Ryan rides it well.
The winner is a very good filly, she’s also a very big strong filly, and she beat Success Days by nearly 5L earlier in the year, and Success Days beat Fascinating Rock in his last race. She’s now favourite for the Fillies and Mares at Ascot.Most commentators I’ve heard and read were quite positive about USAR’s run on Saturday, it was certainly an improvement on his previous run. He wouldn’t have been primed for the race, and though it always seems to surprise punters, Aidan doesn’t mind his horses getting beaten in these prep races. He doesn’t mind having them undercooked and wouldn’t want them to have a hard time in the race itself.
Whether it means anything or not, it’s clear he rates the horse very highly.
I remember at his press day earlier in the year, every photo was of Aidan with USAR, not a sign of Minding, or The Gurkha, or even Air Force Blue.
Of course, some horses never actually deliver on their potential, or show on the track what they show at home, and USAR may be one of those. But I’d give him another chance, though it may be next year when we see him again.Great assessment Sunspangled on USAR. Would be great to see him kept in training for next year.
Sorry Sunspangled but I can’t quite follow the logic. If it was a prep race and Aidan didn’t mind him getting beaten why would we not see him again till next year? Do you mean it was a prep run for next year? That would be a bit odd. And what was the Royal Whip the month before? I though THAT was his prep. I guess you’re saying he will make into a nice 4 year old right?
On another matter, in the Weekender this week Alistair Whitehouse-Jones points out the quite alarming ground bias enjoyed by horses racing wide on Saturday at Leopardstown and suggests we tread carefully with the form. Any thoughts?
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
I’ve watched the replay of the Enterprise Stakes, including the head on, and imo, USAR ran on very genuinely and straight as a die.
But the winner stole a good lead coming around the bend, and Ryan was hands and heels down the straight while Pat Smullen was giving everything on the winner. Ryan didn’t go for his whip until the 150 yd marker when 4L adrift of the winner, and he closed to 1/2L at the line. The pacemaker set a very moderate pace, which didn’t help a closer at the finish.
Maybe Ryan was under instructions not to give the horse a hard race with a view to his next race. But Leopardstown is a tricky track, and nobody rides it better than Pat Smullen, and I don’t think Ryan rides it well.
The winner is a very good filly, she’s also a very big strong filly, and she beat Success Days by nearly 5L earlier in the year, and Success Days beat Fascinating Rock in his last race. She’s now favourite for the Fillies and Mares at Ascot.Most commentators I’ve heard and read were quite positive about USAR’s run on Saturday, it was certainly an improvement on his previous run. He wouldn’t have been primed for the race, and though it always seems to surprise punters, Aidan doesn’t mind his horses getting beaten in these prep races. He doesn’t mind having them undercooked and wouldn’t want them to have a hard time in the race itself.
Whether it means anything or not, it’s clear he rates the horse very highly.
I remember at his press day earlier in the year, every photo was of Aidan with USAR, not a sign of Minding, or The Gurkha, or even Air Force Blue.
Of course, some horses never actually deliver on their potential, or show on the track what they show at home, and USAR may be one of those. But I’d give him another chance, though it may be next year when we see him again.US Army Rnger is certainly 100% genuine when racing in behind horses Sunspangled, so it would not have shown at the weekend. However, it is when racing alongside or in front that I have a question mark over the horse’s temperament.
At Chester, USAR got to the front easily enough before idling quite badly and imo would’ve lost had his steblemate’s jockey ridden more aggresively in the final furlong. It’s possble that was just greeness, only being his second ever start. However, at Epsom looked to be coming with a winning run before faltering once getting to Harzand. That could’ve been Harzand’s staying power kicking in, but the two races together do pose a question whether USAR needs exaggerated hold up tactics. Rider trying to use momentum to get to the front as late as late as possible, so as not to trigger bad idling tendencies (the Gentleman Syndrome, “after you Sir”). This also explains riding tactics at the weekend.
Value Is EverythingYes, it had to have been a prep race, it wouldn’t really rate as an end of season target for the horse. But they have to shuffle the pack which includes several horses for the end of season races. The part owner of Order of St George wants him to run in the Arc, and it was announced today that he does. Found ran really well in the Irish Champion and has had the Arc as her target all season. I’m not sure that they’ll run three in the Arc. I think Minding will probably head to the Champion Stakes. But I’m obviously just surmising, I suppose it’s really my own preference that they put him away. There’s no doubt that he’s a backward type. He didn’t race as a 2yo because he was backward, and he won’t have made up that lost ground as a 3yo. Aidan said after his very first race that he was a horse for next year.
Regarding his attitude, I think it was his backwardness and immaturity at Chester, and he rolled down the camber behind Harzand in the Derby, as well as tiring after making that long run down the straight on bad ground. Maybe he won’t outgrow and overcome that backwardness! But if Ryan was riding him to pip Zhukova at the post, then he misjudged it badly!
There was definitely a track bias on the outer track (USAR ran on the inner track).
Alice Springs got her preferred good ground down the middle of the track which helped her to go from last to first. Similarly Almanzor and Found. Horses on the rail would have got the worst of the ground, so Minding’s performance, for example, could be marked up.All being well I think we’ll see USAR in the Breeders Cup Turf.
Value Is EverythingThe lads have a lot of very tricky decisions coming up. Who goes for the champions stakes,fillies and mares etc at ascot and loads of options for the breeders cup turf. Great that it seems that they will have loads of cracking older horses. I hope Idaho goes for the arc as he travels great through the race and if he can have one short burst at the end of the race he could well be there at the finish.
Thanks Sunspangled. That answers a question for me on USAR. Is that head-on footage available online?
Thanks Sunspangled. That answers a question for me on USAR. Is that head-on footage available online?
I recorded the coverage on the Irish channel RTE2, they had a head-on view.
I’m fairly sure it’s not available online anywhere, unfortunately.I am not sure if you can watch this where you are Joe but here is the link to the RTE coverage on Saturday
http://www.rte.ie/player/ie/show/rte-racing-1476/10621462/
According to the RTE Player website the programme is available for another 16 days but I think some of the programmes are only available in IrelandMINDING vs HARZAND vs ALMANZOR vs FOUND vs NEW BAY vs HIGHLAND REEL vs HAWKBILL vs SUCCESS DAYS vs THE GREY GATSBY vs MY DREAM BOAT
Best race run anywhere in the world so far this year?
Certainly was
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.