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Front two quickened up really well. Don’t know if it was any advantage but it seemed from the races I watched that it certainly wasn’t a disadvantage to be produced out wide. The proximity of My Dream Boat (on ground faster than ideal) might be a little bit of a problem for those wanted to dish out lofty ratings.
Not surprisingly the Timeform bod was all over the winner as the best 3yo around but the impression I got from the brief interview with Rouget was that he didn’t rate the winner any better than La Cressonniere and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the filly went for the Arc and this winner for the Champion Stakes.
Aidan appeared to be putting on his brave face. He seemed pretty certain that Found would go for the Arc. Personally, I think she is several pounds better at today’s trip.
Had a bit on Almanzour now at 10’s. More or less confirmed for the race after today’s win.
Feel that Harzand and USAR will be better over 12F. Following that it seems Ascot Champion or the Arc is next on the agenda.
Well done Botchy, I fancied Minding but had to have a saver on Almanzor because he was a winner for me as crazy value at 5/1 last time and after today that previous race looked a gift.
I thought Harzand was truly awful value today.
Typical Epsom Derby horses getting marked up higher than their actual ability just because it’s the Derby.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Cracking race. Plenty of horses done for speed, Harzand notably taken off his feet. Found must be one the best Filly / Mares of the last 20 years.
Cracking race. Plenty of horses done for speed, Harzand notably taken off his feet. Found must be one the best Filly / Mares of the last 20 years.
Here, here Peruvianchief, she really gave her all yesterday and I could only compare her courage with that of Ouija Board and of course my own favourite mare of all time, who you can probably guess her name begins with T. who was also a dire battler and could hold her own against the colts.
I’m hoping Found will end her season on a winning note after having been bridesmaid so many times and have backed her for the Champion Stakes in a months time at Ascot alternatively If she goes down the Arc route I believe she will win it.Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I thought Harzand was truly awful value today.
Typical Epsom Derby horses getting marked up higher than their actual ability just because it’s the Derby.
Nothing to do with trip then Steve? 😉
I agree, it was awful value but because of trip – not ability.
Value Is EverythingFront two quickened up really well. Don’t know if it was any advantage but it seemed from the races I watched that it certainly wasn’t a disadvantage to be produced out wide. The proximity of My Dream Boat (on ground faster than ideal) might be a little bit of a problem for those wanted to dish out lofty ratings.
Not surprisingly the Timeform bod was all over the winner as the best 3yo around but the impression I got from the brief interview with Rouget was that he didn’t rate the winner any better than La Cressonniere and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the filly went for the Arc and this winner for the Champion Stakes.
Aidan appeared to be putting on his brave face. He seemed pretty certain that Found would go for the Arc. Personally, I think she is several pounds better at today’s trip.
The way Almanzor travelled with ease through the race you’d have to think he’s best at this distance. If trying anything else suspect they might come back in trip rather than up. Champion Stakes at Ascot the obvious route from here.
You might have a point about Found having a better record at 1m2f than 1m4f, but is that coincidence? Didn’t get any sort of a run in the Arc last year after held up in a slowly run affair from stall 15. Won the Breeders Cup Turf over 12f on final 2015 start, beating an admittedly below form (on soft ground) Golden Horn. Thought a gallop short for the Yorkshire Oaks and Coronation Cup came too early in the season for her. When looking at Found’s form at shorter trips, her best has also come later in the season. Trip is a possibility, but on the whole I’d give her the benefit of the doubt for now.
Don’t understand the two’s prices for the Arc: Almanzor best odds 6/1 and Found 11/1 (13/1 on betfair!).
Take the latter!
Value Is EverythingI thought Harzand was truly awful value today.
Typical Epsom Derby horses getting marked up higher than their actual ability just because it’s the Derby.
Nothing to do with trip then Steve?
Racecourse vet also reported Harzand struck in to.
Value Is EverythingHarzand may have been struck into but he was beaten almost after the start. It all happened way too quickly for him. He should’ve gone for the St Leger.
This will be a different proposition for Minding and she looked a little short of pervious form last time.
Possibly right there David.
Value Is EverythingFront two quickened up really well. Don’t know if it was any advantage but it seemed from the races I watched that it certainly wasn’t a disadvantage to be produced out wide. The proximity of My Dream Boat (on ground faster than ideal) might be a little bit of a problem for those wanted to dish out lofty ratings.
Not surprisingly the Timeform bod was all over the winner as the best 3yo around but the impression I got from the brief interview with Rouget was that he didn’t rate the winner any better than La Cressonniere and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the filly went for the Arc and this winner for the Champion Stakes.
Aidan appeared to be putting on his brave face. He seemed pretty certain that Found would go for the Arc. Personally, I think she is several pounds better at today’s trip.
The way Almanzor travelled with ease through the race you’d have to think he’s best at this distance. If trying anything else suspect they might come back in trip rather than up. Champion Stakes at Ascot the obvious route from here.
You might have a point about Found having a better record at 1m2f than 1m4f, but is that coincidence? Didn’t get any sort of a run in the Arc last year after held up in a slowly run affair from stall 15. Won the Breeders Cup Turf over 12f on final 2015 start, beating an admittedly below form (on soft ground) Golden Horn. Thought a gallop short for the Yorkshire Oaks and Coronation Cup came too early in the season for her. When looking at Found’s form at shorter trips, her best has also come later in the season. Trip is a possibility, but on the whole I’d give her the benefit of the doubt for now.
Don’t understand the two’s prices for the Arc: Almanzor best odds 6/1 and Found 11/1 (13/1 on betfair!).
Take the latter!
I wouldn’t take either price.
For me Found’s best two runs have been her defeats in the Irish Champion. That appears to be her optimum. I don’t think that Breeders Cup win is at all solid and she needs better than that to win an Arc. I don’t believe soft ground is her bag and looking at her overall profile you could even suggest she might be a bit better going left-handed. If she recovers from yesterday’s exertions she should do better than last year but I can’t see her in the three.
With Order Of St George out of the picture if Tabor wants to have a chance in the Arc I would be thinking about entering Seventh Heaven.
Front two quickened up really well. Don’t know if it was any advantage but it seemed from the races I watched that it certainly wasn’t a disadvantage to be produced out wide. The proximity of My Dream Boat (on ground faster than ideal) might be a little bit of a problem for those wanted to dish out lofty ratings.
Not surprisingly the Timeform bod was all over the winner as the best 3yo around but the impression I got from the brief interview with Rouget was that he didn’t rate the winner any better than La Cressonniere and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the filly went for the Arc and this winner for the Champion Stakes.
Aidan appeared to be putting on his brave face. He seemed pretty certain that Found would go for the Arc. Personally, I think she is several pounds better at today’s trip.
The way Almanzor travelled with ease through the race you’d have to think he’s best at this distance. If trying anything else suspect they might come back in trip rather than up. Champion Stakes at Ascot the obvious route from here.
You might have a point about Found having a better record at 1m2f than 1m4f, but is that coincidence? Didn’t get any sort of a run in the Arc last year after held up in a slowly run affair from stall 15. Won the Breeders Cup Turf over 12f on final 2015 start, beating an admittedly below form (on soft ground) Golden Horn. Thought a gallop short for the Yorkshire Oaks and Coronation Cup came too early in the season for her. When looking at Found’s form at shorter trips, her best has also come later in the season. Trip is a possibility, but on the whole I’d give her the benefit of the doubt for now.
Don’t understand the two’s prices for the Arc: Almanzor best odds 6/1 and Found 11/1 (13/1 on betfair!).
Take the latter!
I wouldn’t take either price.
For me Found’s best two runs have been her defeats in the Irish Champion. That appears to be her optimum. I don’t think that Breeders Cup win is at all solid and she needs better than that to win an Arc. I don’t believe soft ground is her bag and looking at her overall profile you could even suggest she might be a bit better going left-handed. If she recovers from yesterday’s exertions she should do better than last year but I can’t see her in the three.
With Order Of St George out of the picture if Tabor wants to have a chance in the Arc I would be thinking about entering Seventh Heaven.
Fair points Stilvi, Found might not want very soft ground especially as it emphasises stamina, but good-soft wouldn’t worry me. Never considered left-right, but Ascot run in the British Champion was right up there imo. That coming in the Autumn.
Can also see Seventh Heaven, but wouldn’t soft ground be more against her than Found?
Value Is EverythingFront two quickened up really well. Don’t know if it was any advantage but it seemed from the races I watched that it certainly wasn’t a disadvantage to be produced out wide. The proximity of My Dream Boat (on ground faster than ideal) might be a little bit of a problem for those wanted to dish out lofty ratings.
Not surprisingly the Timeform bod was all over the winner as the best 3yo around but the impression I got from the brief interview with Rouget was that he didn’t rate the winner any better than La Cressonniere and it wouldn’t be a surprise if the filly went for the Arc and this winner for the Champion Stakes.
Aidan appeared to be putting on his brave face. He seemed pretty certain that Found would go for the Arc. Personally, I think she is several pounds better at today’s trip.
The way Almanzor travelled with ease through the race you’d have to think he’s best at this distance. If trying anything else suspect they might come back in trip rather than up. Champion Stakes at Ascot the obvious route from here.
You might have a point about Found having a better record at 1m2f than 1m4f, but is that coincidence? Didn’t get any sort of a run in the Arc last year after held up in a slowly run affair from stall 15. Won the Breeders Cup Turf over 12f on final 2015 start, beating an admittedly below form (on soft ground) Golden Horn. Thought a gallop short for the Yorkshire Oaks and Coronation Cup came too early in the season for her. When looking at Found’s form at shorter trips, her best has also come later in the season. Trip is a possibility, but on the whole I’d give her the benefit of the doubt for now.
Don’t understand the two’s prices for the Arc: Almanzor best odds 6/1 and Found 11/1 (13/1 on betfair!).
Take the latter!
I wouldn’t take either price.
For me Found’s best two runs have been her defeats in the Irish Champion. That appears to be her optimum. I don’t think that Breeders Cup win is at all solid and she needs better than that to win an Arc. I don’t believe soft ground is her bag and looking at her overall profile you could even suggest she might be a bit better going left-handed. If she recovers from yesterday’s exertions she should do better than last year but I can’t see her in the three.
With Order Of St George out of the picture if Tabor wants to have a chance in the Arc I would be thinking about entering Seventh Heaven.
Fair points Stilvi, Found might not want very soft ground especially as it emphasises stamina, but good-soft wouldn’t worry me. Never considered left-right, but Ascot run in the British Champion was right up there imo. That coming in the Autumn.
Can also see Seventh Heaven, but wouldn’t soft ground be more against her than Found?
Very likely, but on good ground I think she would have a chance to place.
Found has been beaten right-handed by Zhukova, Fascinating Rock and My Dream Boat but all on a softer surface. The My Dream Boat form was comfortably reversed and I couldn’t have the other two finishing second in yesterday’s race. The ground is probably the key factor but of course her Breeders Cup win was also left-handed.
I just feel lucky to still have an interest in the race with La Cressonniere. Her form got another little boost today and with Order Of St George gone I am inclined to think if she stays she wins. I would far rather have had her gentle prep and longer recovery time than anything coming out of yesterday’s race. If my Rouget interpretation was correct and he confirms her for Arc and Almanzor for the Champion I think she could well go off favourite.
I thought Harzand was truly awful value today.
Typical Epsom Derby horses getting marked up higher than their actual ability just because it’s the Derby.
Nothing to do with trip then Steve?
I agree, it was awful value but because of trip – not ability.
Harzand won’t win the Arc in my opinion.
He’s a plodder, who won a plodder’s Derby.
US Army Ranger was bobbins again and beaten at odds-on. Couldn’t win a group three and he looked as ploddy as a plodder in a plod factory. Idaho went to the Leger, again a plodder’s race. Wings Of Desire plodded last time out. Red Verdon was Leger bound and Ulysses couldn’t quite plod fast enough to win at odds-on in a Windsor Group 3, although he did finish well in front of that excellent Dante horse Foundation that day.
I suggest a wee revisiting of the subsequent Derby form is recommended. It looks very moderate to me.
I am opposing these Derby runners and they are getting beaten time and again, although funnily enough I did fancy and back Across The Stars and Ulysses when they won because I felt the odds were worthy with them dropped in grade and away from the notorious awkward track of Epsom.
I suggest the Derby was overrated to the tune of at least 5lbs but that’s just my opinion of course. It has been a profitable opinion though and I will leave the endless excuses for others to trot out.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I’d give Idaho another chance wherever he goes as I feel he will end up being the best 3 yo colt in Britain. We shall see.
Harzand won’t win the Arc in my opinion.
He’s a plodder, who won a plodder’s Derby.
US Army Ranger was bobbins again and beaten at odds-on. Couldn’t win a group three and he looked as ploddy as a plodder in a plod factory. Idaho went to the Leger, again a plodder’s race. Wings Of Desire plodded last time out. Red Verdon was Leger bound and Ulysses couldn’t quite plod fast enough to win at odds-on in a Windsor Group 3, although he did finish well in front of that excellent Dante horse Foundation that day.
I suggest a wee revisiting of the subsequent Derby form is recommended. It looks very moderate to me.
I am opposing these Derby runners and they are getting beaten time and again, although funnily enough I did fancy and back Across The Stars and Ulysses when they won because I felt the odds were worthy with them dropped in grade and away from the notorious awkward track of Epsom.
I suggest the Derby was overrated to the tune of at least 5lbs but that’s just my opinion of course. It has been a profitable opinion though and I will leave the endless excuses for others to trot out.
Yeh right. 😆
OK so let’s do as you suggest – a little “revisiting”, this is the result of the Derby and what’s happened since:Harzand 1st – Won Irish Derby from English Derby 3rd Idaho, the duo 3¾ lengths clear of the 3rd. He then races over an inadequate trip in the most competitive Group 1 seen this season and gets struck into, finishing lame. Why is that not a valid excuse?
In the Epsom Derby had 1½ lengths back to…
US Army Ranger 2nd – Don’t you ever make allowances Steve? Doesn’t it make any difference to you that US Army Ranger was not seen on a racecourse for 78 days between Derby Day 4th June and 21st August – missing many important races? Why do you think that was? Must he be a “plodder”? Well. seemed to show quite a bit of pace at Epsom, could there be another explanation? Oooh we can’t make “excuses” can we? Yes we can! With the absence, isn’t it obvious US Army Ranger has had a problem and currently not able to run as well as before?
1¼ lengths back to…
Idaho 3rd – see Harzand. Ridden closer to the overly strong pace than other principles at Epsom and not surprisingly got closer to the winner in Ireland. Then won the Group 2 Voltigeur with more in hand than the 1 3/4 lengths suggest from Housesofparliament who franked the form by being beaten only just over 3/4 length in the St Leger. Idaho himself unseated rider in that race, is that excuse valid? But on a line through Housesofparliament would’ve won the Group 1 St Leger. When asked previously why you did not rate the Derby you said the Derby third Idaho was “only a maiden winner” Steve, well he’s not just a maiden winner now! Won the most important Group 2 of the season at 12f confined to 3 year olds and has collateral form to suggest would’ve won a Group 1. “Only a maiden winner”. 😆
5 lengths
Wings Of Desire 4th – Beaten 7¾ lengths by Harzand (that’s seven and three quarters)! Only beaten 1¼ lengths by Highland Reel when runner-up in the best mile and a half weight for age race in Britain (King George). Now – later on in the season – 1m2f is now an inadequate trip (oops another excuse) and well beaten in International. However, the only one to beat him at Ascot finishes a good 1 1/4 lengths second to Postponed in the International, franking the King George form and in turn the Derby too. So no excuses needed really.
3 lengths
Humphrey Bogart 5th – Well beaten less than 2 weeks later at Royal Ascot and then inadequate trip in America, followed by a slowly run Geoeffrey Freer. None of those races suiting him… But we can’t make excuses, so one horse has disappointed from the Derby, big deal.
1 length
Red Verdon 6th – Beaten out of sight by Harzand at Epsom. Just 4¼ lengths 4th in Irish Derby, then only beaten 1¼ lengths in Group 1 Prix De Paris, hardly “a plodder”.
With Derby also ran Cloth Of Stars a neck away in 3rd. Not seen since, probably because the yard has a virus.
2 lengths
Algometer 7th – Not run since.
2 lengths
Cloth Of Stars 8th – See Red Verdon. Pulverised in Derby, close 3rd in a Group 1 in France.
Nose
Massaat 9th – Went lame only start since.
3 lengths
Across The Stars 10th – Beaten around 19 lengths at Epsom, Won King Edward before good 3 1/4 lengths third in Voltigeur to ummmm… Derby third Idaho.
3 lengths
Deauville 11th – Won the Grade 1 Belmont Derby Invitational in USA before third over an inadequate trip in Arlington Million. Oops that word “inadequate” again.
1¼ lengths
Ulysses 12th – Won Goodwood’s Gordon Stakes in impressive fashion before improving again when carrying a 4 lb penalty in another Group 3 at Windsor, short head runner-up to Chain Of Daisies – 6 lengths clear of the third. But let’s take the penalty away and then have a look what would’ve been the result. Had Ulysses ran without a penalty and won the Group 3 by 4 lengths with 6 back to the 3rd – would that have seemed so disappointing? 😉 But we can’t make excuses can we? Yes, when it’s viable.Wonder sometimes how you read form Steve. It seems if a horse does not win every race it’s dismissed as crap… And then if every horse it beats also does not win every race – then it must be crap too… And there’s no excuses allowed, not if the horse has been injured, finishes lame, runs over an inadequate trip, wrong ground, carries a penalty, viruses or not even if unseating rider… And 12 furlong horses are “plodders”… And there’s no changing your mind either – once a horse/race is deemed crap it remains crap forever.
I envy you such a simplistic form study. It sure as hell wouldn’t work for me, but if it works for you – why not.
Value Is EverythingWe should remember that 3yos are only teenagers in human terms, they are still developing, and we have no idea how good the better ones could yet prove to be, particularly with staying types.
Look at Postponed, he ‘only’ won the Great Voltigeur as a 3yo. He was well into his 4 year old before he won a G1 and it’s only as a 5yo that he has shown himself to be anything special.I envy the ability of anyone willing to spend ages trying to prove something, when the answer is staring them in the face and it actually gets proven by their analysis.
If you note the emphasis on “Inadequate Test”
Why do horses need an adequate test? Because they are SLOW.
Runner up US Army Ranger was running at the Derby trip and dropped to group 3 class to boot. He wasn’t fast enough to win.
I must just be one lucky bastad, expressing concerns BEFORE races, giving reasoning, and then seeing it unfold exactly as my thinking suggested.
As usual, there’s a jibe about me being simplistic and unable to read form.
For all the form reading some people do, they still feel the need to back five in a race to make sure they get the winner.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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