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The ground is currently good to firm, firm in places. Some rain forecast on Saturday morning and Sunday night.
No rain forecast for next week, but you can’t really trust that far ahead! But Leopardstown tends to escape the worst of the rain, and the racecourse also takes rain very well. I can’t see the ground being any worse than good, and quite likely to be better than good. I don’t think Harzand will run on good ground, let alone better than good. Fascinating Rock won’t run on better than good either.Does anyone know if New Bay is running at Leopardstown?. Racing Post still has him down, but he is also down for the Foy which is on the day later
Minding is desperately weak in the betting for this. Out to 5/2 with Paddy Power doesn’t suggest she is likel to turn up here.
I’ve had a saver on Almanzor at 6/1. I reckon he has the speed to outpace Harzand in the closing stages.
Almanzor 6/1 (Saver)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Minding still holds entries in both this and the Matron
She’s out to 6/1 with Paddy for the Matron
Either they know She is not running or have made her bigger for the Irish Champion on account that with the rain they had it’s more likely that Harzand is back in the fold.Blackbeard to conquer the World
Unless Aiden is playing politics it looks like Minding will be in the Irish Champion unless she misses the meeting altogether, She won’t be running in the Matron anyway judging by Aiden’s comment below
O’Brien said: “Somehow has tweaked a muscle and won’t be running in the Matron. Ryan will ride Alice Springs in the race.”
Blackbeard to conquer the World
MINDING vs HARZAND vs ALMANZOR vs FOUND vs NEW BAY vs HIGHLAND REEL vs HAWKBILL vs SUCCESS DAYS vs THE GREY GATSBY vs MY DREAM BOAT
Best race run anywhere in the world so far this year?
Impossible to call, just watch and enjoy.
MINDING vs HARZAND vs ALMANZOR vs FOUND vs NEW BAY vs HIGHLAND REEL vs HAWKBILL vs SUCCESS DAYS vs THE GREY GATSBY vs MY DREAM BOAT
Best race run anywhere in the world so far this year?
Impossible to call, just watch and enjoy.
Yes, great race in prospect. Good to see the good horses taking each other on, connections should be applauded.
Agree – there is no argument this time. A top quality race. I’ll be seeing how much rain they get today before tying my colours to anything.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
A top quality race.
It’s highly competitive, for sure.
MINDING vs HARZAND vs ALMANZOR vs FOUND vs NEW BAY vs HIGHLAND REEL vs HAWKBILL vs SUCCESS DAYS vs THE GREY GATSBY vs MY DREAM BOAT
Best race run anywhere in the world so far this year?
Impossible to call, just watch and enjoy.
Could’t agree more. Great race in shape!
Best Wishes
SilkAgree – there is no argument this time. A top quality race. I’ll be seeing how much rain they get today before tying my colours to anything.
I think there was less rain than expected today, only about 6mm, and dry now until racing, so the ground is likely to be good on the inner track (first 4 races) and good to yielding on the outer track (last 4 races).
I am surprised as many hold there ground here.
Hawkbill’s trainer expressed that his horse would run where there was soft in the ground and it’s hard to be bullish about him after his last start.
I think it rests between Minding, Almanzor and New Bay if the ground stays decent. I feel Harzand would need it soft at this trip and it’s a bit of a worry to see his Epsom pal US Army Ranger in a Group 3 this weekend. That’s not where you really want to see Derby runner up’s plying their trade at this stage of the season.
Rouget’s horse has to be respected but probably needs to step up again. Minding has had trouble in running a couple of times this year and that cannot be afforded in this race. Rain would probably lessen her chance of winning.
New Bay running here surprises me. I felt on of the French Arc Trials would be his bag as a less difficult option with no travel required. He got back on track after that crazy A Shin Hikari race where nothing seemed to run to anything form on the gutters. He still has a bit on but comes here fresh and yet to have revealed his 4yo potential to any real extent.
I’ve got Minding at 5/1 and Almazor at 6/1 as a saver. I’d love to see the Filly win.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Harzand is a good Derby winner, but imo he’s a 12 to 14f horse, not a 10 to 12. Got to be a Lay at around 3/1. Not enough speed and I’d want at least double that to back him unless it turns soft/heavy. 3/1 looks fair for Minding but have just saved on her. There’s plenty of other top class horses. New Bay seems to be on his way back, but hasn’t hit the heights of last year yet. Proving popular in the market but Arc seems No1 target. Prefer the other Frenchman, Almanzour is progressing nicely, right ground, right trip and this is no No2 target. 15/2 well worth chancing! Highland Reel was only beaten by Postponed in the International, victor not in here. 14/1 under-estimate’s his chance too but am a little concerned about the ground and whether he’s at his very best on a sound surface – too soft? Just a saver so far. Stable companion Found has been bridesmaid a number of times this term. May be she’s not quite the filly of 15, but it’s also possible this is her time of year. Second to Golden Horn in this last year and nothing wrong with finding Seventh Heaven too good last time – trainer said might have needed the run there and if coming on at all will be in the shake up, double figure prices should not go by without a wager! Harzand’s poor price is making several value. Other one I’ve backed is International Stakes failure Hawksbill. Shows a rounded action which did not suit the firm surface at York. Could be resurgent here, particularly if significant rain. 16/1 seems generous. Can’t see My Dream Boat being good enough even if the rains come. Stable aren’t in anywhere near as good form now as they were Royal Ascot time either. Ebidiyin is in as pacemaker for the fav and Success Days could follow; neither should be in front come the finish. Ditto Moonlight Magic. The Grey Gatsby would have a chance if recapturing his best, not shown it this season and needs it to dry up anyway. One I do give a squeak to at a massive 50/1+ price is O’Brien’s fourth string Sir Isaac Newton. Didn’t seem to get the best of runs in the International, yet posted a career best, needs another step forward but that is not inconcievable.
Value Is EverythingThis will be a different proposition for Minding and she looked a little short of pervious form last time. I agree with GT that Harzand is likely to be best over 12f.
I think both Hawkbill and Highland Reel look a little overpriced but the one I’ll be on here is NEW BAY whose form is up there within a pound or two of the best rating here and who has less ?s. Fabre doesn’t travel them at a whim and the positive market moves would indicate further confidence that he’s ready to run at his best. Plenty possibilities in this though and a race to savour, as is the rest of the Leopardstown card. Great afternoon’s racing ahead.I’m taking a chance on FOUND with a saver EW on Hawkbill.
Just remember AOB saying after Found’s last race where she had had a 2 month rest that she would need the race and they possibly had this race in mind for her. Anything that has beaten Golden Horn is good enough for me.
Just love this gutsy mare and would love her to win tonight..as Charles Olney says a race to enjoy
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...
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