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(1:50) 14B Arkle Perp.Challenge Cup Novice S’chase
(Grade 1) €58,500.00 ( 2m 1f – 5yo+ )[MAX 28]
NHFrm4813- 1 Cooldine (WPMullins) – …………………………
p-47- 2 Cuan Na Grai (PNolan) – . ……………………..
1121- 3 Follow The Plan (OMcKiernan) – . …..(147)
1412- 4 Forpadydeplasterer (TCooper) – . ………….
0241- 5 Golden Silver (FR) (WPMullins) – . …………
521-1 6 Jayo (FR) (WPMullins) – ………………………..
7 Raysrock (KJBurke (in GB)) – ………………..Can’t see Willie running all three in this race. I’d say Jayo will be his main hope with Cooldine more likely to go to Gowran on Thursday. Follow The Plan was impressive on Stephens’ Day but I’d be willing to give Forpadydeplasterer another chance over two miles. It will be a real slog on Sunday and I think conditions are likely to suit him.
Cant wait to see Jayo and Followtheplan. FTPs last perormance was the best Ive seen this season for the Arkle, the question is whether he can follow it up. I would think there should be a better pace on this time which should be more in his favour.
I like Paddy for this Jayo’s form doesn’t look as good as Follow the Plan and he only won because PN messed up IMO
(1:50) 14B Arkle Perp.Challenge Cup Novice S’chase (Grade 1) €58,500.00 ( 2m 1f – 5yo+ )
1 Cuan Na Grai (PNolan) – PWFlood……. 11,12
2 Follow The Plan(147) (OMcKiernan) – JLCullen ……………… 11,12
3 Forpadydeplasterer (TCooper) – BJGeraghty………….. 11,12
4 Golden Silver (FR) (WPMullins) – PTownend …………… 11,12
5 Jayo (FR) (WPMullins) – RWalsh ………. 11,12Paddy Power bet: 5/4 Jayo, 9/4 Forpadydeplasterer, 11/4 Follow The Plan, 25/1 Cuan Na Graí, 25/1 Golden Silver.
This should be a very informative race. It looks an open year in the novice chase division and the Irish hope for the Arkle should come from this race. Jayo is the favourite after impressing at Naas but I’d rather be against him at the price. He jumps very well but I thought he was slightly flattered by the margin of his win over Made In Taipan who didn’t run up to form.
Follow The Plan beat the Arkle favourite at Christmas giving him 11lbs but Oliver McKiernan has expressed his concerns about the ground.
That leaves me with Forpadydeplasterer who I think is made for a hard run two miles on soft ground. He had to make his own running at both Punchestown and Fairyhouse which wouldn’t have suited. Hopefully either Cuan Na Graí or Golden Silver will give him a lead.
Forpaddy for me.
Will be suited by this drop back in trip and has the speed to win this.
11/4 looks great value
This should be a very informative race. It looks an open year in the novice chase division and the Irish hope for the Arkle should come from this race. Jayo is the favourite after impressing at Naas but I’d rather be against him at the price. He jumps very well but I thought he was slightly flattered by the margin of his win over Made In Taipan who didn’t run up to form.
I agree with this, and I like Forpadydeplasterer too at around 9/4 – 5/2. He jumps well, likes the ground, and even though he will definitely stay a longer trip he’s shown that he is capable of top class form at 2m.
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I have to confess to having hammered Jayo this evening, even at prohibitive odds of around 5/4. I don’t think Follow The Plan met the same Tatenen that had won so well at Aintree and Cheltenham, and even though he was conceding weight I get the feeling he was a touch flattered by the victory.
As for Forpadydeplasterer, I just don’t like him as a chaser. His debut over fences was anything but scintillating (a 93-rated horse beaten only six lengths or so) and I wasn’t at all impressed by his defeat to Trafford Lad last time.
Jayo all the way for me.
I have Follow The Plan as my top rated horse here with Forpaddydeplasterer a close second. FTP is consistent, should handle the ground and will like the trip. F is a class act and won’t go down without a fight but I will side with FTP in the hope there is still more to come from him.
Mike.Interesting race,
Follow The Plan has alot going for him but probably wants better ground.
Jayo jumps well, has gears, handles the ground and lacks size, though he battled well against Top Of The Rock earlier, i’m not sure what he’ll find for pressure when the **** really hits the fan at this level, 5/4 or 6/4 doesn’t do much for me really
Forpady has got guts but the trip may be an issue, I’m willing to pass at 5/2
Golden Silver is a contender, he handles the ground, jumps well and looked to improve for the drop back to 2 miles the last day, quickening nicely towards the end. At 25/1 i’m interested
Looks like Forpady will go off favourite
Jayo on the drift to 9/4 at the moment. Forpady shortening to 7/4
Fascinating race this i think.
I dont think you could rule any of the front 3 out in the market.
They should all go on the ground too, so that shouldn’t inconvenience them.
Follow The Plan impressed me last time out, when he beat Tatenen. Ok, the Paul Nicholls horse maybe wants a stronger pace in his race, and it wasnt run to suit, but Follow The Plan ran a very good race, and stuck his neck out to win. I dont think the ground will be an issue for him today either. He also beat Cooldine and Made In Taipan that day, who are both good horses in their own right. He was also giving 10lbs away that day to Tatenen, and still managed to get his nose infront.
Forpadydeplasterer jumped really well i think when he was beaten By Trafford Lad, i dont think he lost much in defeat that day. That was over a slightly longer trip than today, but the ground will be more testing today. It may just bring his stamina into play a bit more, today. Again, he is another one that should act ok on the heavy ground.
The is no doubting that Jayo is impressive, but i think he was flattered last time out by Made In Taipan, who just wanted going that day, he never looked comfortable, and i think the form doesnt look as strong as a result. Made In Taipan is obviously a better horse than shown that day.
Golden Silver is obviously better than his running in the Drinmore suggests, when he was beaten from a long way out.
I think it will be between Forpadydeplasterer and Follow The Plan today.
Im going to side with Forpadydeplasterer.
Nice pick, FrankLucas!
Very close race that. Thought Forpady was going to do it right up to the line.
Congratulations Frank Lucas; have just been to put my pennies on River Liane for the hurdle and was going to follow your advice..of course I forgot when I got there.
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Nicely done, Frank.
I think both those horses will go to Cheltenham with big chance. Wouldn’t surprise me if Pady could turn the form around on a stiffer track. I thought he jumped superbly and he ran on really well in testing ground. It was only his 8th race today and given the size of him you’d expect further improvement.
Golden Silver is very promising too. Young Townend gave him a good confident ride and he battled on well. The O’Leary’s have had some class horses in the past like Florida Pearl and Missed That and it looks like they’ve two very promising chasers in Golden Silver and Cooldine.
I wouldn’t put a line through Follow The Plan yet as he needs better ground. Jayo, for me was something of a false favourite and he lacks the size and scope to make a real impression at the highest level.
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