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Great effort, BigG.
Prediction: that’s the last Group 1 Native Trail will ever win.
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Couldn’t be happier wish he’d done that at Newmarket but what a fabulous horse Native Trail is.Well done with your EW Graham (BigG) you certainly know how to find the value.
Jac
Things turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...Jac,
That was the worst Irish 2,000 Guineas EVER and he’s had to work hard to win it from a trio of colts rated 102, 110 and 102 beforehand.
I like Native Trail too, but he will never be in a race like that again.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Doubt if NT had to improve on Newmarket, Jac.
My initial thinking is if anything he was below that form.Value Is EverythingI rated him 119 at Newmarket and I can’t rate him higher than 117 for what I just saw.
It’s all consistent with zero weight-for-age improvement – his best days are behind him IMO.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"To be fair, Native Trail was imo drawn in the worst possible posi’ – for him – today. On the rail.
Seems to prefer being out wide.When in amongst horses has to be asked for his effort sooner…
And – in that way – will be under pressure whatever the company.
Therefore will often win without running to his very best.Value Is EverythingIan/ Ginger
I appreciate and in a way have to agree with your observations. However…
I think you both know I have my rose tinted specs on when it comes to Native Trail,🤓 but must admit that at the one furlong from home marker he hit a worrying flat spot where he was going nowhere but then rallied and went on to win.Agreed he seems to make heavy work of winning his races but he does all that is asked of him. He reminds me of my trusty old Qashqai she goes well enough in 4th gear but when asked to fly when in 5th I get a bit of a splutter and some resistance before she makes up her mind to go.
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...It’s a game of opinions, Jac, and I will be first in line with my bib on, knife and fork at the ready, to eat humble pie if he wins another Group 1!
I really like the colt too, but I just feel the rest of his generation are catching up with him now.
Time will tell!
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I couldn’t take him on today but if he goes to Ascot and he’s odds on again and there’s something half decent in opposition I’ll happily take him on based on what I saw today. Most will say Ascot’s stiff and it’ll suit his finish which I can’t argue with but that round course is deceptively sharp and less a stamina test than a flat out gallop on the straight mile. From memory they rarely get a good sized field in the SJP. It’ll get tactical and that flat spot of his shows no sign of disappearing.
Third big race in five weeks. That’s not excessive but I would certainly make an allowance for that
May split them up…
Adayar – Prince Of Wales
Coroebus – St James Palace
Modern Games – French Derby
Native Trail – Eclipse?I think Native Trail could do with going 10f.
I was thinking that but do OD progeny stay? I don’t know. I’m asking
Obviously was a not a stayer himself
Very underwhelmed by the performance if I am honest, he seemed to make very hard work of that and it is quite possible that he was just a very advanced 2yr old and his contemporaries have now finally bridged the gap to him as 3yr olds.
I really hope that he has underperformed to his Newmarket form because if he hasn’t it doesn’t bode well for him or Coroebus being able to put it up to Baaeed later in the season – very early days but the signs are that maybe the older generation will have the upper hand when they clash later in the year.
When a 3yo seems to regress by a couple of pounds from its last run it might simply be that it isn’t making average weight-for-age improvement as the weeks and months pass.
All the numbers I have for Native Trail since October and the Dewhurst are consistent with a horse who literally isn’t improving.
He’s made very heavy weather of beating colts rated 102-110 today, but I wouldn’t worry about it suggesting Coroebus isn’t that good.
The 2,000 Guineas winner is progressive – Native Trail, sadly, doesn’t seem to be.
I doubt stepping up to 1m2f would make much difference – Oasis Dream sired Midday, so Native Trail might stay, but it would have to be a weak Eclipse for him to win it.
He wouldn’t get anywhere near Baaeed either at 1m or 1m2f on my numbers.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"
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