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I’m assuming Darnation will get pulled out because 40/1 is a wild price about her given she went off the same price as Opera Singer for the Marcel Boussac but they’ve already spoken about wanting softer ground which won’t be coming. I do like the favourite but I’ll take a chance on Elmalka EW with the extra places because she took a huge step forward in form terms on her 2nd start in the Fred Darling. She needs to take another here but she’s bred to be smart and should enjoy the ground and extra distance being a relative of Benbatl who loved quick ground over the mile. I won’t lie would have preferred James Doyle staying on board but SDS isn’t a disaster. I don’t really get the love for Dance Sequence to be honest who did the same as Elmalka in her trial (get beat).
Ylang Ylang (8/1, 9/1 BFEX), Cinderella’s Dream (14/1) and Star Style (16/1, 18/1 BFEX) are the three I’ll be having in what looks an open race.
Ylang Ylang looks particularly interesting at that price given she is a strong stayer in what will be a fast run race with several key rivals unexposed at the trip. They’re pricing in City Of Troy’s failure yesterday – that may be fair to an extent but I think they’ve overdone it and the trainer has won 5 of the last 8 runnings of this.
Against that, only one of his 5 previous Fillies’ Mile winners (Minding) has gone on to win this.Cormack
I’m going 4 places Sacred Angel , hoping the step up in trip will suit and while we have a worthy fav I reckon it’s wide open
Ranatuelle fav on the exchange
Absolutely bonkers price
Has to be very unlikely she gets home with the speed she’s shown and the track a complete unknown
They may be “pricing in City Of Troy’s failure yesterday”. But surely the fact they’ve won 5 of the last 8 had before that been overly factored into the price which made her so short in the first place David… And the fact the stable’s three year olds in particular have been needing their first runs should also be taken into account. Something touched on in the official excuse yesterday.
Ylang Ylang’s form is one of the four best fillies going into the race. But that was in a strongly run race on good-soft ground where the third hung badly and interfered with the second. Ylang Ylang only getting up in the dying strides. May have been the third best filly that day and the probability is she’s going to need a greater test at three years old. Times yesterday suggested the ground was Good, verging on good-firm. That’s the main reason for her drifting. ie When it looked like being soft ground she had a far greater chance. If looking at those who’ve shortened in the market, Ramatuelle, Porta Fortuna, Cinderella’s Dream, they’re all horses who’s asset is speed.
Value Is EverythingI’d very much worry about ylang ylang not having the cruising speed to keep up in the early stages on this ground
I may have a fun bet on the combi tricast for pennies using
Fallen angel
Dance sequence
See the fire
Elmalka
Regal Jubilee15p x60 bets for a laugh
Yes, wouldn’t disagree strongly with any of that GT. I just think 8/1 is a bit of the big side, I have her at about 6 and I wouldn’t want to leave her out given she’s AOB’s only contender, although you might argue that is because the stable is a ‘bit behind’ this spring. You generally need to stay the mile strongly to win here and some of those have that to prove.
Cinderella’s Dream 14/1 e/w 1/5 4 places – Has done nothing wrong to date being steadily progressive over her 4 races.
I agree with you to an extent, FF. Ramatuelle is unlikely to stay the trip considering how free she was in the Imprudence over 7f on reappearance. I couldn’t back her today at that price. However, I do have a little better view of her chances than I did. Horses can sometimes be free on their reappearance and then more relaxed afterwards. If Rematuelle is showing she’s calmed down a lot since, then that could be a factor. Also the way the Imprudence was run (it’s on youtube) did not help, they came out of the stalls and immediately split into two groups. Ramatuelle between the two groups with zero cover pulling too hard. Then could only get behind one other horse, so still didn’t settle completely.
In this field of 16, if dropping her out the back with quite a few horses in front of her, she would be more likely to settle than last time out. More likely does not mean she will though, imo it is less than 50 – 50. But if she does stay, the Morny second to Vandeek is the best form of any in this field.
The firming up of the ground will also mean less of a test of stamina than would’ve been the case on softer.
Alternatively… being clear top rated on Timeform may also have something to do with it. Punters just backing her because she’s top rated without bothering to look at her characteristics.
Judge for yourselves…
Value Is EverythingStar music to finish in the top 4 @15-16s
Small play on at 200sDarnation e/w @39/40s
Main bet on fallen angel, out to 6s e/w + is a joke, borderline stupidity whoevers laying that
I’m taking a chance with Star Style. She’s only won her only race, a maiden at Newbury 16 days ago but she won it in some style and in a good time. I was quite impressed. Yes it’s that age old phrase “could be anything” but 20/1 or 30.00 on the Exchange is too big. I’m having a bit of both.
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