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I’ve now had a chance to crunch some numbers from Derby day.
Rating the Derby according to the time, it makes Stravagante in the opening handicap very fast indeed. On form ratings, the picture is a bit cloudier. Are we to believe Storm The Stars improved 4lbs from Goodwood a fortnight before, which in turn was an improvement on his Chester form behind Hans Hobein? Are we to believe Golden Horn and Jack Hobbs improved 7lbs and 6lbs respectively from the Dante? I’m keeping an open mind about it, with Golden Horn on 126 but am prepared to drop it a bit if Storm The Stars doesn’t frank it. Workforce was around 128 on collateral lines but much higher on time but I suspect his was the only genuinely fast race on the day and it should be noted he was well beaten next time out in the King George. That he came out and won the Arc suggests the Derby took a lot out of him at the time and who’s to say Golden Horn won’t experience the bounce too?
Everything points to Golden Horn being a very good (but no better than that) Derby winner, Jack Hobbs an average placed Derby runner and everything else sub-standard.
To put it into some kind of historical context, it would put Workforce a length and a half further in front – in which case people might argue that Golden Horn didn’t truly stay (!) – with the really good Derby horses even further ahead.
Maurice,
You’ll probably find this excellent Sectional Debrief by TRF’s Prufrock (Simon Rowlands) interesting. It shows Golden Horn was the only runner going faster than par in the final section. Jack Hobbs ran a par final sectional with all other runners below par. If Golden Horn “didn’t truly stay” then you’d expect the opposite.Workforce was under-rated by some purely because of inconsistency – twice ran poorly at Ascot – but a really good Derby winner. Timeform rating of 133 for both Derby and Arc, where as Golden Horn is currently 128. Average Derby 126, so you’re probably right, “very good, no better”; at this stage. Still scope to improve further. Jack Hobbs also seems slightly better than a Derby runner-up at this stage, but his physique – and the fact his career was only 5 months old (4 runs) – suggests can improve a good bit more yet. Rest of the field do appear a little below standard.
Value Is EverythingYes, the idea of whether or not Golden Horn stays is based on many years of reading other people’s interpretation of what’s in front of them. In my opinion to suggest he didn’t stay doesn’t make sense but if there was a better horse doing the rounds who had beaten him into second you’d get no shortage of people saying he didn’t stay.
As I said before the race, Hawk Wing was deemed a non-stayer at Epsom because he was beaten. People conveniently forgot that he was 12 lengths clear of the third. Had there been no High Chaparral on the day, Hawk Wing would have gone into Derby history as the widest margin winner in history and nobody would be doubting his stamina.
As a 4yo in the Lockinge he was again a record 11 lengths clear winner. For me, he never got the credit he deserved.
I read Simon’s analysis last week. It makes perfect sense to me but what it doesn’t do, interestingly enough, is make GH a superstar.
Jack Hobbs strikes me as a really exciting prospect, being bred, as he is, to improve over the next two seasons. This guy could be a monster next season.
As I said hawk wing had injury problems during his career and was also around the same time as rock of Gibraltar and many judges thought he should have beaten that horse in the guineas. His Derby run was still a brilliant effort considering the 12length gap to the third. The lockinge run was truly sensational and had domedriver miles behind who went onto success at the breeders cup. A vintage time for top.top class horses.
As I said hawk wing had injury problems during his career and was also around the same time as rock of Gibraltar and many judges thought he should have beaten that horse in the guineas. His Derby run was still a brilliant effort considering the 12length gap to the third. The lockinge run was truly sensational and had domedriver miles behind who went onto success at the breeders cup. A vintage time for top.top class horses.
Don’t think Domedriver’s form in the Lockinge means anything (below form) but Hawk Wing put up a special performance… and I was there (getting wet).
Value Is Everything
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