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It will have been 20 years since Saeed bin Suroor and Godolphin won the Derby with the brilliant Lammtara come Saturday, would it be inconceivable that Best of Times could outrun his massive odds and mark the anniversary with an unlikely win? Strictly on form you would say he is held by Storm the Stars, who in turn is 33/1, but looking back at the race the winner was ridden very aggressively from the front and clearly revelled in the conditions. BOT was in a good position all the way but didn’t quicken in the final furlong and doesn’t seem to have a great turn of foot, but he wasn’t fading in the closing stages though, so the longer distance may not be too bad for him. Connections did moot that the Tercentenary Stakes was the next aim, so whether he goes there after this remain to be seen, but they must’ve felt the horse was well enough to contend the Derby. He’s also in the Eclipse so quite a loft entry. Breeding suggests stamina is OK out of Nabati by Dubawi, and siblings include 1m2 and 1m4f winners in France. A little rose-tinted spectacles trying to justify his previous defeat I know, but at 66/1 he could be a lively outsider, and a sentimental winner too he would be.
Not “rose tinted” at all.
On “form” SC, Best Of Times is equal to Storm The Stars as he was giving weight to the winner at Goodwood. Travelled well and looked the most likely winner two out. Appeared disappointing at the time, but jockey reported Best Of Times did not feel quite right behind. So if there was something wrong it might explain why he did not find much for pressure that day. Saw BOT at Salisbury last year, he’s a big, good looking colt, type to keep improving for a while yet as he fills his frame. If odds remain similar – Best Of Times and Storm The Stars would be the two outsiders I am most likely to back on the day.
Value Is EverythingMaurice you seem to be making your case based on the assumption that GH and others have already reached their peak. Yes of course if GH wins the Derby running to a rating of 118 that would make it a very poor Derby. ANY horse winning it with a rating of 118 would make it a poor race. But you have any number of horses in the race who are still on the upgrade in that they are only having their 3rd or 4th or 5th career races or, in the case of Elm Park, their 2nd races of the season. As Ginge pointed out, many recent Derby winners had lower pre-race marks than GH and naturally improved to win the Derby. As things stand the ratings show it is not particularly any worse or any better than any other Derby. And as has already been said, we are not going to REALLY know how good the race is until later in the season when the 3yr olds start taking on the 4 year olds.
I do know all of that. I’ve been analysing form (successfully) for nearly 40 years. I’m assuming nothing, merely laying out the possibilities.
What I’m saying is that with the evidence I’m sifting through I’m not hopeful that this will prove to be a good renewal although, to repeat, if the sectional gurus (whose opinions I’ve grown to trust) are right about Giovanni Canaletto it might just make all of the debate redundant.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
Of course it’s all about opinions. I just don’t see how a lower rated horse coming in and winning it makes the race better than if the top rated one wins it.That’s misinterpreting what I’m saying.
Golden Horn can win and run to the same mark in the Dante (118)… that makes it a poor race if the average Derby winner runs to 120+.
Golden Horn can run to his Dante rating and not win. That makes it a better race. (Because the winner has posted a higher figure.)
Golden Horn can fail to run to his Dante rating because he didn’t stay and be beaten by a 117 horse. That makes it a poorer race.
What I’m saying is if we’re relying on the Dante as the key race, we’re up sh1t creek without a paddle.
UNLESS
Jack Hobbs improves for the step up in trip, or Elm Park does, or both do.
Or
Hans Holbein runs them into the ground from four out.
Or
The sectional gurus are right and Giovanni Canaletto is 130+ horse, in which case we have a superstar in our midst.
That makes it 3/1 against it being a good Derby.
No, I’m not misinterpreting anything. I think you’ll find you are pretty much alone in your logic here.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Maurice wrote:</div>
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
Of course it’s all about opinions. I just don’t see how a lower rated horse coming in and winning it makes the race better than if the top rated one wins it.That’s misinterpreting what I’m saying.
Golden Horn can win and run to the same mark in the Dante (118)… that makes it a poor race if the average Derby winner runs to 120+.
Golden Horn can run to his Dante rating and not win. That makes it a better race. (Because the winner has posted a higher figure.)
Golden Horn can fail to run to his Dante rating because he didn’t stay and be beaten by a 117 horse. That makes it a poorer race.
What I’m saying is if we’re relying on the Dante as the key race, we’re up sh1t creek without a paddle.
UNLESS
Jack Hobbs improves for the step up in trip, or Elm Park does, or both do.
Or
Hans Holbein runs them into the ground from four out.
Or
The sectional gurus are right and Giovanni Canaletto is 130+ horse, in which case we have a superstar in our midst.
That makes it 3/1 against it being a good Derby.
No, I’m not misinterpreting anything. I think you’ll find you are pretty much alone in your logic here.
I can understand where Maurice is coming from and the logic behind it. Don’t have any opinion on the race though, nothing jumps out at me as something I want to back at the prices.
I do know all of that. I’ve been analysing form (successfully) for nearly 40 years. I’m assuming nothing, merely laying out the possibilities.
What I’m saying is that with the evidence I’m sifting through I’m not hopeful that this will prove to be a good renewal although, to repeat, if the sectional gurus (whose opinions I’ve grown to trust) are right about Giovanni Canaletto it might just make all of the debate redundant.
Ah! Now that’s entirely different. You are of course at liberty to talk about “possibilities” and not being “hopeful” and using all your 40 years experience to predict that it will eventually turn out to be a a poor race. What you can’t do is factually state that it is categorically a bad race NOW. The figures show it is no better or worse than average AT THIS STAGE.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
I don’t think Best of times will stay, he looks built like a ten furlong horse to me. Quite muscular and also from a getting home in the derby point of view, it must be at least slightly worrying that in his second race they ran him over six furlongs at Salisbury.
He came there to win the race last time at Goodwood and didn’t seem to get home. Now was that due to a lack of stamina, or blowing up through lack of fitness? My guess is the former. I don’t think that race was the greatest anyway.
Epicuris is starting to get interesting. Especially given he’s a rather big looking 25-1, given the doubts about the favourites. A Khalid Abdulla French/English derby double?
Ok there may be worries that he’ll get worked up in the prelimanaries, but if he doesn’t go in the stalls you’ll get your money back anyway, and if he does he could be quite a straightforward ride. He’ll be up there in the van andjust keep galloping in the straight. Handles soft ground so any thunderstorms on the Friday will be in his favour,and if they don’t come given he’s by rail link he could even improve for the better ground.
Also as far as getting the distance is concerned, any horse that won over a mile in heavy ground as a two year old should have no problem getting the trip
Oh dear,for all the well considered opinion here about this years Derby Winner, those getting bogged down with ratings will learn that at this stage of a 3yo’s career you can throw that book out the window.The last time TAPK was bullish about a Derby horse it was Workforce,he broke the stats boys hearts too.I decided this fellow was a Classic winner the moment Ryan couldn’t pull him up in a Goodwood maiden,it was nothing but a visual clue and I’m a fan of the adage in ‘seeing is believing’.In the Old days we always said a Dante horse was a Derby horse and a Lingfield Derby trial winner was the danger,we considered the Chester Vase winner to be placed and as a last resort the Predominate winner at Goodwood could be considered Derby material,funnily enough the 2000 gns winner was always said to fail on stamina…That was until Dancing Brave came along. A certain Commander in chief through the rule book out the window too so as far as stats go I frankly couldn’t give a damn.From what I’ve seen the danger to my fellow is Elm Park as the Racing Post trophy is a stat even I respect and 3rd place goes to one of Gosdens 2.Which one? I couldn’t split them over 11/2m.
Zawraq out and Jack Hobbs doubtful unless it rains!! Oh dear.
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
At this rate Giovanni Canaletto will be the only horse left in the race.
Just a thought here. Dermot Weld said he wouldn’t work Zawraq over a distance that would indicate his stamina. They then did a u-turn and worked him over 10f to see if he was likely to stay. I said at the time that working him at a decent enough pace to test his stamina was perhaps a bad idea so close to the race. The horse was out again working and picked up the injury. How much work were they trying to cram into the horse?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Well, the race is now only a couple of days away and still we have doubts about the participation of a couple of the leading fancies. It’s been a quite incredible build up to the race.
Golden Horn, stamina reservations or not, runs at least, and the way the race is still cutting up he could end up with barely any credible opposition.
Elm Park is still the one I’d be on if I had a gun put to my head. I thought he needed the run at York and will be a different horse this time.
I have been reading TAPK’s almost orgasmic enthusiasm regarding Giovanni Canaletto and (no offence TAPK) but I’ve found myself thinking “what a load of cobblers” mainly. If this colt wins the Derby it’ll either be a disastrously poor renewal and / or there will be practically nothing left to beat. Giovanni couldn’t even beat a 93 rated filly last time and the dogs have hardly been constantly barking the house down over him. Moore rides, which says a lot for O’Brien’s other horses – who lets face it were never regarded in the same league as JFK or Ol’ Man River – and those pair would struggle to beat me. Giovanni is the most ludicrous, stupid price and is actually shorter than Elm Park – ??????????
I hope Jack Hobbs and Zawraq run. Jack shouldn’t be winning a Derby after winning a handicap but he just could win this one … and Zawraq could be anything and adds real interest to the race. His connections clearly think he’s very smart and they are no mugs nor prone to hyperbole.
I’ll take Elm Park to win but with no real confidence.
If the ground is on the fast side, is there anything other than Golden Horn who will appreciate that?
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
If the ground is on the fast side, is there anything other than Golden Horn who will appreciate that?
Storm The Stars
Giovanna Canaletto being by Galileo shouldn’t mind quicker conditions
But yes you’re right if the rain stays away, which seems likely, it heavily favours the jolly.
Derby Draw
Carbon Dating — 4
Elm Park — 3
Epicurus — 1
Giovanni Canaletto — 9
Golden Horn — 8
Hans Holbein — 2
Jack Hobbs — 10
Kilimanjaro — 6
Moheet — 5
Rouge Runner — 11
Storm The Stars — 7
Success Days — 12Good news for Gosden, Haggas and O’Brien (mostly) there.
Golden Horn can win and run to the same mark in the Dante (118)… that makes it a poor race if the average Derby winner runs to 120+.
This is only Golden Horn’s 4th race. Only needs to show normal improvement from 3rd to 4th start to win an average Derby on OR ratings. He’s also currently rated just 1 lb below the average Derby winner in Timeform and rated with a “p” for “the horse is likely to improve”.
I do not know, you do not know, Timeform does not know whether Golden Horn will improve/show himself a good Derby winner on Saturday; but the rating of Golden Horn compared to the average Derby winner is encouraging when other facts are considered.
It is a FACT that winners of the Derby IMPROVE their form to be successful at Epsom. So to compare Saturday’s PRE-race OR ratings with reassessed ratings of Derby winners without taking that FACT in to consideration is crazy. If judging every Derby that way then almost every year would look “poor”.
The last three Dante winners to be successful at Epsom went in to the race with OR’s of 115 North Light, 116 Authorized and 117 Motivator. Golden Horn is rated 118.
Jack Hobbs has an OR rating of 112 which is 4 lbs better than Dante runner-up Workforce went in to the race (108).
Derby winners who came in to the race without the opportunity of racing at Group 1 level as 3 year olds have improved to an even larger degree. The average PRE-race official rating of the last six winners not to have competed at Group 1 level as 3 year olds is 113.
All these FACTS suggest that if you’re judging the race purely on Gloden Horn’s PRE-race rating it must be seen as a positive for quality.
Value Is EverythingDerby Draw
Carbon Dating — 4
Elm Park — 3
Epicurus — 1
Giovanni Canaletto — 9
Golden Horn — 8
Hans Holbein — 2
Jack Hobbs — 10
Kilimanjaro — 6
Moheet — 5
Rouge Runner — 11
Storm The Stars — 7
Success Days — 12Good news for Gosden, Haggas and O’Brien (mostly) there.
Front runners in 1 and 2, possibly 7 and 11.
Value Is Everything
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