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<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>thejudge1 wrote:</div>
On the subjects of stats and trends, hows this one? How about the good name theory?Over the years the derby has been won by horses with fantastically lyrical names, like:
Nijinsky
Troy
Golden Fleece
Sharastani
Nashwan
Generous
Commander in Chief
and so on.
Seven names going back 45 years? One ‘good’ one every 6-and-a-bit years? Is this really the basis of a good system?
Obviously it’s entirely subjective and not meant to be taken seriously but what was lyrical or whatever about any of the names since Commander In Chief?
That’s why I said “like” I was just giving examples.
You could also add
Morston
Snow Knight
The Minstrel
Shirley Heights
Shergar
Secreto
Slip Anchor
Reference Point
Quest for fame
as well as numerous other examples
Since Commander in chief you’ve had
Galileo
North Light
Sea the stars
Obviously this is entirely subjective as you say, and although they seem very well named to me they might be something else to someone else…
I’ve just bought a 2 year old horse called Destruction Derby. should I enter him for 2016?
No with a name like that he has no chance
Pour Moi was a horrible Derby winning name. Should’ve been Frankel!
Actually the best derby for names (in my subjective and quite obviously flawed opinion) was the 1986 derby when the fantastically named Dancing Brave (who I see you has as your avatar) just failed to get up to beat the equally well named Sharastani in the final furlong…
I still get goosebumps when I see that Video on youtube, Graham Goode calling it “Dancing Brave powering down the center of the track,but OH so much to do!”
In a way that race is the embodiment of the tragedy and drama of sport. Somehow Dancing Brave’s heroic defeat was more inspiring to me than any of his incredible victories.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Ghost of Rob V wrote:</div>
Pour Moi was a horrible Derby winning name. Should’ve been Frankel!
Actually the best derby for names (in my subjective and quite obviously flawed opinion) was the 1986 derby when the fantastically named Dancing Brave (who I see you has as your avatar) just failed to get up to beat the equally well named Sharastani in the final furlong…
I still get goosebumps when I see that Video on youtube, Graham Goode calling it “Dancing Brave powering down the center of the track,but OH so much to do!”
In a way that race is the embodiment of the tragedy and drama of sport. Somehow Dancing Brave’s heroic defeat was more inspiring to me than any of his incredible victories.
I don’t think I’ll ever recover from Dancing Brave’s defeat. At the time, it was heartwrenching watching the drama unfold and the hard realization that he wasn’t gonna get there as the winning line got closer. His turn of speed as he blazed the last two furlongs was mesmerizing.
Of course, there are those people who’ll argue that Derby winners such as Erhaab, Lammtarra and Pour Moi achieved what Dancing Brave didn’t … by coming from well behind to succeed. However, Dancing Brave’s circumstances were different and Shahrastani was a far better horse than King’s Theatre, Tamure and Treasure Beach.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
Anyone remember Gypsy King winning the Dee Stakes by a short head from a 33/1 outsider, before going off a ridiculous 7/2 2nd Fav in Motivator’s year?Was that serious stable money? Or seriously unstable punters?
‘Gypsey King’ was quoted at 6/1 for The Derby after his Chester victory thats hardly a gamble! ‘Giovanni’ was quoted at 50’s after getting beat at The Curragh and was still 20’s this week,thats a gamble Steve..Yo need to try harder to get one over me pal.
6/1 now into 7/2 by racetime Saturday would be a decent enough gamble. It takes more money to move one from 6/1 than it does from 20/1. Less people are willing to get involved early and the bookies are just trimming odds in order to follow the cartel.
If you can provide actual evidence of people reefing their money up in grands and getting bookie bashing sums of money on then I might believe there is a major gamble going on.
If this were someone else’s ante-post tip, you would be among the first to point out what a ridiculous price the horse is now.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I can’t remember seeing a worse Derby field in my 13 years of gambling. Really is awful. I think there are 3 or 4 from the Oaks field who could win this Derby.
The usual load of guff here. Thank good for Ginge and a bit of level headed objectivity. Had Elm Park run in a Lingfield Derby trial, Jack Hobbs in a Dee Stakes and Golden Horn in the Dante we may well be talking about one of the best quality Derby’s in recent years rather than the worst. I think it is only the fact that there isn’t an obvious Ballydoyle superstar in the line up has people dismissing this field as useless. I am sure we all rate Dermot Weld, Andrew Balding, Criquette Head and John Gosden as pretty good trainers and I doubt any of them would share the consensus on here. Fwiw I think the Dante was a quality race and I can only see the winner coming from that in fact I am probably going to do the 3 of them in a tricast but I wouldn’t dismiss the chances of several others as they have the potential for improvement. We are at the start of June and so there are only a limited amount of opportunities for 3 year olds to prove themselves before now. Even so we have Group 1 winners plus the winners of all the major trials lining up. We have unbeaten colts, Colts on the upgrade, Colts from England, Ireland and France. They may all turn out to be **** but how do we know that now and why are we dismissing them as dreadful when they haven’t done anything wrong?
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>The Ante-Post King wrote:</div>
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
Anyone remember Gypsy King winning the Dee Stakes by a short head from a 33/1 outsider, before going off a ridiculous 7/2 2nd Fav in Motivator’s year?Was that serious stable money? Or seriously unstable punters?
‘Gypsey King’ was quoted at 6/1 for The Derby after his Chester victory thats hardly a gamble! ‘Giovanni’ was quoted at 50’s after getting beat at The Curragh and was still 20’s this week,thats a gamble Steve..Yo need to try harder to get one over me pal.
If this were someone else’s ante-post tip, you would be among the first to point out what a ridiculous price the horse is now.
When I backed Giovanni Canaletto last October for this years Derby I knew then I wouldn’t be backing anything else in the race as I dont fall for all the hype of ‘Ol Man River’ and ‘JFK’.I expected a Dante run and 2/1fav quotes for The Derby thereafter,that didn’t happen,hindsight a word you excel at Steve, proved I was wrong thinking Dante,Aiden was right aiming him for the Vase as this horse needs the full 11/2m.Unfortunately the horse wasn’t ready for it so the Gallinule was last chance saloon to get a run into him.You like many others take that form literally and wouldn’t touch the horse with a bargepole but thats what seperates those who can seperate Wood from Trees.Saturday will prove why I’m the legendary Ante-Post King and you are the very Cautionate Steve.
The horse missed it’s original target, so it stands to reason they were not going to break it’s neck in the trial.
The horse also lost on debut, look at the stats so did the unbeaten Sea the Stars…….
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Have you ever heard of modesty TAPK ?
If we are going to start just bragging on this thread then I am on Golden Horn £20 e/w at 20/1 and a tenner at 20/1 Dante Derby double and Hans Holbein £10 e/w at 66/1 but that doesn’t mean
A I know what I am doing
and B I am going to win.Personally I think GC has no chance and is a ridiculous price for what it has or hasn’t achieved but life is about opinions and a bit of humility goes down well with the minions
I was thinking the opposite, that this could be a really good Derby. Quite a number of the colts are still babies and will come on a lot from the trials. You can only say if it is a good or good Derby by the end of the season any way, when we see if the colts train on. Golden Horn could turn out to be a good ten furlong horse after the race, because win or lose I imagine that’s the distance he will be raced at.
It is certainly a Derby with a lot of (on paper) non-stayers in it and that potentially could add up to a bad Derby, as the best horse may not win and just be beaten by the one that stays.The usual load of guff here. Thank good for Ginge and a bit of level headed objectivity. Had Elm Park run in a Lingfield Derby trial, Jack Hobbs in a Dee Stakes and Golden Horn in the Dante we may well be talking about one of the best quality Derby’s in recent years rather than the worst. I think it is only the fact that there isn’t an obvious Ballydoyle superstar in the line up has people dismissing this field as useless. I am sure we all rate Dermot Weld, Andrew Balding, Criquette Head and John Gosden as pretty good trainers and I doubt any of them would share the consensus on here. Fwiw I think the Dante was a quality race and I can only see the winner coming from that in fact I am probably going to do the 3 of them in a tricast but I wouldn’t dismiss the chances of several others as they have the potential for improvement. We are at the start of June and so there are only a limited amount of opportunities for 3 year olds to prove themselves before now. Even so we have Group 1 winners plus the winners of all the major trials lining up. We have unbeaten colts, Colts on the upgrade, Colts from England, Ireland and France. They may all turn out to be **** but how do we know that now and why are we dismissing them as dreadful when they haven’t done anything wrong?
Well said Joni,when Giovanni Canaletto comes flying down the outside in course record time we’ll see how bad the race was then.Hans Holbein will frank the form in the St leger too.Thats the problem for those on ‘Golden Horn’,the race will be run and won by team Coolmore.Had the fav won the Dante like he did over 11/2m then I’d worry about him,if it pisses it down I’ll worry about ‘Elm Park’ as the danger and if Frankies destined to win another Derby then its ‘Jack Hobbs’but I reckon we’re in for a cracker. Of course I’m one of lifes Cuppeth runneth over half fulleth sort of guys unlike the sad pessimists on here who want to knock the worlds most prestigious flat race!
Have you ever heard of modesty TAPK ?
If we are going to start just bragging on this thread then I am on Golden Horn £20 e/w at 20/1 and a tenner at 20/1 Dante Derby double and Hans Holbein £10 e/w at 66/1 but that doesn’t mean
A I know what I am doing
and B I am going to win.Personally I think GC has no chance and is a ridiculous price for what it has or hasn’t achieved but life is about opinions and a bit of humility goes down well with the minions
There’s always one who has to show off about how much they have on a horse….For the record I have 50p e/w at 25/1,50p e/w at 20/1, 50p e/w at 16/1,50p e/w at 14/1,50p e/w at 12/1 a whole £2 on at 50’s and 46’s a whole £5 win at 25’s,24’s,21’s 18’s 17’s and a place bet at 10’s.Of course the King of foresight could lay off for a healthy £3,25 profit but I’ll cover my stakes in running at 1/5,maybe Evens if I let nerves get the better of me.I’m certainly expecting to replace my Green and Gold Winter Pansies with some Orange and Blue ones from the proceeds.
I’m sure we’d all want to see a great race in which the subsequent form goes on to prove it was a cracking renewal but when it comes to form I find it pays not to get carried away but look soberly at what we’re faced with.
So far I’ve got two bets in the race, HH ew at 66/1 with the win portion laid off at 11/1 and I plan to lay the place portion off while the a/p market is still there. I also took GC a couple of weeks ago. I’ll need to check my accounts for the price it was either 16/1 or 20/1 as I may have been confusing the price with the one I took about HH for the St Leger.
Anyway, as for the week’s race, How do they line up in terms of their current official ratings?
Golden Horn (118) might stay well enough to win but that, for me, would mean it’s a poor race.
Elm Park (117) is tipped by Steve Miller in his dosage article. That would be strong grounds for optimism if I fancied the horse but I also found Simon Holt’s case against Elm Park’s overall form quite compelling leading up to the Guineas. Golden Horn’s fine performance in the Dante – it was well up there with past winners – still leaves Elm Park with 10lbs to find with the winner and then there’s Jack Hobbs likely to improve past Golden Horn anyway. Better judges than me are expressing doubts about JH’s maturity at this stage and EP’s ability to handle the track (based on the Breakfast gallop) and they’re saying he might not even run if the going quickens up again.
Success Days (117) looks like his OR is based more on the history of the Derrinstown than on the actual performance which was in heavy ground against very ordinary opposition who probably didn’t act in it. By Jeremy, he has to be a doubtful stayer although I wouldn’t have given him much chance of staying the 10f. He might be a freak, in which case he’s overpriced, but connections seem to think he needs it soft, which won’t happen.
Jack Hobbs (112) – see above
Epicuris (112) – is here due to technicalities
Zawraq (111) is the only other entry with an OR in the teens and he might not stay and has a late scare to set aside.That’s 5 entries with ORs of 110 or more, the best of which is 118.
2014: 7 of 16 had the rating, the top two of which were likely stayers and were first and second and the winner emerged with a new OR of 123.
2013: 6/12, 125 (Dawn Approach, miler), Ruler Of The World won, new OR 120 (Libertarian, Dante winner second top, second)
2012: 3/9, 120 (Camelot, won)
2011: 5/13, 117 (Seville unpl), Pour Moi (115) won, never raced again.Need I go on?
It all points to this being a very ordinary renewal.
Maurice,
You’re not comparing like with like. It is not fair to compare Saturday’s pre-Derby ratings with post-Derby ratings of Derby winners. Three year olds going in to the Derby will invariably improve. If you want to compare ratings then compare Saturday’s runners ratings with the PRE-Derby ratings of past winners.Value Is Everything2014: 7 of 16 had the rating, the top two of which were likely stayers and were first and second and the winner emerged with a new OR of 123. Australia was 119 going in to the race, but he’d already had the opportunity of running in a 3 year old Group 1.
2013: 6/12, 125 (Dawn Approach, miler), Ruler Of The World won, new OR 120 (Libertarian, Dante winner second top, second) Ruler Of The World was 109 going in to the race.
2012: 3/9, 120 (Camelot, won) Camelot was 121 going in to the race, but he’d already run in a 3 year old Group 1.
2011: 5/13, 117 (Seville unpl), Pour Moi (115) won, never raced again. Pour Moi was 113 going in to the race.
2010: Workforce was 108 going in to the race.
2009: Sea The Stars was 121, but he’d already run in a Group 1 3 year old race.
2008: New Approach ?
2007: Authorised (another Dante winner) was only 116 going in to the Derby, 2 lbs worse than Golden Horn.
2006: Sir Percy was 121, but again had already run in a Group 1 3 year old race.
2005: Motivator (another Dante winner) was only 117 going in to the Derby, 1 lb worse than Golden Horn.
2004: North Light (another Dante winner) was only 115 going in to the Derby, 3 lbs worse than Golden Horn.Saturday’s Derby doesn’t look so bad.
Of the three Dante winners to go on to win the Derby – all three had a lower rating going in to the race than Golden Horn.
Fellow Dante runner-up Workforce had a rating 4 lbs less than Jack Hobbs going in to the race.Value Is Everything
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