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“Driving that train, high on cocaine,
TAPK you’d better watch your speed,
Trouble ahead, trouble behind,
And you know that notion just crossed my mind”Garcia/Hunter ?
I was just going to point out that Epicuris should really have been running in the French Derby but wasn’t allowed to but I see that thejudge has pointed that out already. Finding it very difficult to get excited about this years Derby; even a scintilating performance by the winner will only mean he’s beating boats.
Would people be quite so dismissive of the quality if the first three in the Dante had avoided each other? What if there’d been three impressive winners of trials (showing the form they showed in the Dante)?
In my opinion the best three horses in the Derby all ran in the Dante.
Value Is EverythingI think two of the three best horses ran in the Dante and even if it was all three I’d have reservations about two of them on stamina grounds.
I always look for the best horses in the race beforehand. It’s the safest way but if they don’t stay their chance will be at best compromised, at worst eliminated.
Thanks for the info about Epicuris. As soon as I started reading it, it started ringing bells. I was going to check his ground requirements later, before committing myself to a bet.
Personally, I would be all over Elm Park beating Jack Hobbs in a match bet.
Jack Hobbs is still very raw and was by far the fitter horse in the Dante. Elm Park was keen early on and still travelling very well until about 2f out. Whilst Jack Hobbs running style suggests 12f will suit, I just have severe doubts about that.
Jack Hobbs is my place lay of the race. I think it will hang all over the place and I’m just not convinced this horse is mentally ready for the Derby.
TAPK is single handedly forcing the Bookmakers to slash the odds of this years Derby Winner,yesterday I took all the 16/1,today its the 12/1 NRNB.This fellow goes off single figures on saturday like I’ve already stated so any double figure price has to be taken e/w of course.The Giovanni Canaletto train is seriously rolling now and I’m Casey Jones!
Looks like Ryan is going to be on board Giovanni, judging by the money coming.
Zawraq has had a set back after suffering a cut in his work. He’s out to 7/1 now.
8/1 is the biggest price on Giovanni Canaletto now and that is a ridiculous price.
Still punters are fickle creatures, the shorter he gets, the more they will want to be on. The obsession with the O’Brien yard is something to behold.
The horse has done nothing to enhance his claims but the odds are cut in half. At this rate he’ll be second favourite.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Ladbrokes have been shortest about GC for some time, suggesting they’ve had hints all along that he’s a lot better than his recent run or that maybe Moore ha reservations about HH.
I said earlier if Moore was confirmed as GC’s jockey his price would collapse. That might be what’s happening.
Either way I don’t mind!
I remember early in the season the Channel 4 team were talking about the Derby. Emma Spencer tipped Giovanni. Asked if it was form or inside (stable) information that made her tip it? Evident someone she considered a good judge in the yard felt Giovanni their best chance. So Giovanni has always been well thought of; which is quite different to Hans and Kili.
Value Is EverythingIt is okay being well thought of but doing it on the track is a different matter. 8/1 is an INSANE price and like Steve says it is probably going to get madder !!!
I think GC has the potential to be a very good horse but not yet!!
It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to see that Coolmore’s first choice is going to have a very good chance of winning the derby. I think the fact that some of their early contenders like JFK have fallen by the wayside has lead many to mistakenly underestimate the Irish breeding/training juggernaut.
In fact all you have to do is look at the roll call of recent winners and see that they’ve won the last three derby’s. The race was all against Giovanni last time, they went no pace but the way it powered home in the last couple of furlongs is rather ominous for the opposition on Saturday.
I’m kicking myself as I was down the bookies earlier and was considering taking the 14-1 Giovanni Canaletto and it’s now into 8-1 and I’ve missed the boat. Backed Jack Hobbs instead at 11-2 NRMB which I’m reasonably happy with but very worried about this O’brien dark horse. Probably too late to back it now.
When it’s raking stride enables it to swoop past in the final furlong on Saturday past a bunch on non-stayers I might well be kicking my television in.
Personally, I would be all over Elm Park beating Jack Hobbs in a match bet.
Jack Hobbs is still very raw and was by far the fitter horse in the Dante. Elm Park was keen early on and still travelling very well until about 2f out. Whilst Jack Hobbs running style suggests 12f will suit, I just have severe doubts about that.
Jack Hobbs is my place lay of the race. I think it will hang all over the place and I’m just not convinced this horse is mentally ready for the Derby.
Can’t have that Jack is a place lay. Looked very good in his racecourse gallop at Breakfast with the stars. He might not get home but if he does he’ll be a danger to all. Ran a quicker final two furlongs when he won at Sandown earlier in the year than the older Custom Cut did when winning the mile race earlier in the card.
I am not sure that being more highly regarded than John F Kennedy, Ol’ Man River, Jamaica and Sir Isaac Newton makes Giovanni Canaletto strike fear into the rest of the Derby field.
Between the four of them, the other colts have managed to collect only a nine grand Gowran maiden this season.
I had to laugh when I read that Sir Isaac Newton had “Bounced back” when winning his maiden. Bounced back to what? The jockey said “There is more to come from this horse”. Let’s see, he cost 3600000 Euros, he’s just won 9315 Euros. You better believe more is expected pal!
Emma Spencer might well have a mole in the O’Brien yard but unless Giovanni has been kicking Gleneagles to the kerb on the gallops, I wouldn’t be rushing to take 8/1 on a horse who couldn’t catch a handicap winner last time.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Surely Giovanni Canaletto is just the least exposed of three O’Brien duffers? If he isn’t you would have to believe Lordan produced the poorest winning ride of the season on Curvy two starts ago.
Hi Judge,
He looked ok in the course gallop to a degree, though he still lugged a little left and that was with one horse around him.Jack Hobbs has ability without doubt, I just think it is very raw and immature still. It lugged a little left at York too.
Adding to this, I just have doubts about him staying. You would think it will based on the Dante run, but quite a bit of speed in the family too.
My fancy Elm Park may also not handle the track, but in a poor renewal, I think it could have the class to win despite of this.
I’m just not convinced Jack Hobbs is a G1 horse at any distance, let alone a distance and on track that don’t look ideal for this big strong individual.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Nathan Hughes wrote:</div>
Stats are made to be broken. No horse has won the Arc three years in a row, do we put a line throughTREVE. No horse had won the Queen Anne without a prep run for 4 million years until Toronado wiped the floor with them.Toronado was odds on though Nathan and Treve hasn’t defied the stat yet. Anyone who laid Toronado at 4/5 didn’t exactly fall to his knees crying that the stat had finally let him down and he was paying out for the first time after 4 million years of making hay on it.
Some stats are irrelevant. How many Derby winners ran against a filly previous to winning the Derby?
Toronado had another stat against him in that the horses sired by High Chaparral had a v poor record at Royal Ascot and Richard Hannon Junior had never trained a Royal Ascot winner..
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Just a thought…those judging horses on the basis of the Breakfast workouts might want to bear in mind how far from the inside rail they were on passing the post. The camber from that centre point to the rail is pretty severe.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>The Ante-Post King wrote:</div>
TAPK is single handedly forcing the Bookmakers to slash the odds of this years Derby Winner,yesterday I took all the 16/1,today its the 12/1 NRNB.This fellow goes off single figures on saturday like I’ve already stated so any double figure price has to be taken e/w of course.The Giovanni Canaletto train is seriously rolling now and I’m Casey Jones!
Looks like Ryan is going to be on board Giovanni, judging by the money coming.
Zawraq has had a set back after suffering a cut in his work. He’s out to 7/1 now.
8/1 is the biggest price on Giovanni Canaletto now and that is a ridiculous price.
Still punters are fickle creatures, the shorter he gets, the more they will want to be on. The obsession with the O’Brien yard is something to behold.
The horse has done nothing to enhance his claims but the odds are cut in half. At this rate he’ll be second favourite.
The King has got his hat on hip hip hip hooray…This is fast becoming TAPK’s legendary coup of all legendary coups Steve.You will see on Saturday just why I am the King of foresight.
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