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I must confess that if I saw the Dante in isolation and knew nothing about pedigrees (well I probably know nothing about them anyway) I’d be convinced that horse will win the Derby and wouldn’t give an earthly prayer to the second or third turning the form around
Interesting quote by Pricewise Tom Segal in the racing post today, something about “he can’t wait to see Golden Horn in the derby and whether or not he’ll prove all the pedigree experts wrong, who have been saying that he hasn’t got a prayer of staying”
Fascinating stuff fellas. What do you think of Found, Crepello? Is it a shot in the dark with her running in the Derby, and would she get home in that or the Oaks?
I must confess was really looking forward to this filly, and although she’s been disappointing so far this year she did run on very well last time and has exactly the sort of nippy, athletic frame that should be ideal for Epsom
I’ve never known much about breeding and it’s decades since I studied Flat racing with any seriousness, but having just watched the Dante again, my old eyes tell me that Golden Horn races very much as though he wants a mile and half.
I hope there’s none of this ride him to get the trip nonsense because I suspect that under a ‘proper’ ride he will win this very comfortably.
I have watched the Dante at least twenty times Joe. In my opinion, Golden Horn looked to have stayed the best of the three on the day, as well as quickening past them. Elm Park gets tired in the closing stages, having raced probably the easiest of the three for much of the race. Jack Hobbs comes under pressure first but keeps on better than Elm Park, who you could argue needed the race. Golden Horn just starts to increase his superiority late on, as Jack Hobbs fades slightly in comparison. My feeling was that Golden Horn would have won six lengths had he been pushed out for another furlong.
Connections have said the horse will need to played later in the Derby and, as you say, there will be the danger of leaving him too much on. If stamina is going to be an issue, it’s best that you are out in front trying to last out, than in behind and realising that the gauge is tapping on a big letter E. You can free-wheel a car home, but overtaking is pretty hard on an empty tank. (Jeremy Clarkson)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Crepello1957 wrote:</div>
The female line provides the stamina in around 90% of pedigrees. That is why we have seen horses sired by a sprinter or miler winning races like the Derby. Dr Devious (Ahanoora) Hard Ridden (Hard Sauce) and as mentioned in an earlier post North Light (Danehill). Their female lines were all stamina laden ones. There have been very few instances of a horse winning the Derby out of a sprinting mare. Nimbus (Nearco-Kong- Baytown) is the only one I can think of. Kong was a sprinter, her sire Baytown won the Irish Derby though and Nearco Nimbus’s sire won over twelve furlongs, though he wasn’t a huge influence for stamina. Nimbus won the 2000 Guineas and then just scraped home at Epsom, hanging badly, in the first photo finish used for the race.
Golden Horn is by a stallion that will sire a stayer from a staying mare; Golden Horn’s female line consists of mares who work the other way and produce fast horses from staying stallions. What’s remarkable is that he stays ten furlongs, he could be a freak, but he will be the first horse in modern times to win a Derby from that sort of breeding.Stamina can come from the male or female line. Take a look at many horses sired by Coolmore stallions Galileo and Montjeu. To say “the female line provides the stamina in around 90% of pedigrees”, is simply not true Crepello.
Golden Horn (by Cape Cross) is a half sister to listed 1m2f winner Eastern Belle (by Champs Elysees) also 4th in Nassau and raced as though she’d get further for John Gosden. Since been 2nd @ 11 furlongs in her most recent start in USA. Champs Elysees himself stayed 1m4f where as Cape Cross was a miler, but that does not tell the whole story. Record with their progeny is also important. Champs Elysees has (according to Racing Post) a 30% strike rate with his progeny @ 7 to 9 furlongs, 35% @ 10 to 11f and 19% from 12 to 13. That compared to Golden Horn’s sire Cape Cross 44% 7-9f, 33% 10-11f and 29% 12-13f. So although you could say Cape Cross’s best statistic is from 7-9f, the percecentage of winners at 12-13f is in fact much greater than Champs Elysees. Of course you can expect each individual foal’s stamina to be directly related to the dam. ie horses from stamina mares will stay (on average) longer than speed mares.
Golden Horn’s dam Fleche D’or (by Dubai Destination) is a half sister to Coronation Stakes (mile) winner Rebecca Sharp (by Machiavellian); but she’s also half sister to Mystic Knight (by Caerleon) beaten only 4 3/4 lengths.
On the whole I’d agree that on pedigree alone Golden Horn is less likely to stay than she is to stay this trip (around 60/40). However, Joe is right. Massive influence to an individual horse’s stamina is character/temperament. Golden Horn settled extremely well at York over 10.4f and wasn’t stopping at the finish. That for me, turns a 60/40 non-stayer in to a 67/33 in favour of staying.
For me, it makes 2/1 worth taking at least as a saver bet. If certain to stay he’d be odds-on.
Value Is EverythingThere is one thing though in Golden Horn’s favour. The fact they are running him, when it is virtually certain he would stay to win the French Derby. Why put a dodgy stayer in what will be a very tough race? A successful ten furlong career and victories in the Eclipse, International and Irish Champion Stakes beckons. A bad experience might result in him never winning again, it has happened with other horses; they must think it is worth that risk.
I am just quoting the statistics Gingertipster, no Derby winner has come from a female line so packed with speed. Two furlongs can make a lot of difference in a race that Coolmore will surely orchestrate to test his stamina and that of other doubtfuls, to the limit.
Connections have said the horse will need to played later in the Derby and, as you say, there will be the danger of leaving him too much on. If stamina is going to be an issue, it’s best that you are out in front trying to last out, than in behind and realising that the gauge is tapping on a big letter E. You can free-wheel a car home, but overtaking is pretty hard on an empty tank. (Jeremy Clarkson)
Best position for Golden Horn depends entirely on the pace of the race and how he settles. If a truly run/strongly run Derby then it’s fine being towards the back. If just a fair pace you’d want to be nearer the pace. Unless Coolmore put Found or Gleneagles in to the race, their current pair Hans Holbein and Kilimanjaro are stamina laden and will need a stamina test, so suspect it will be truly run. Golden Horn has been dropped out in his races; very much doubt he’ll be nearer than mid-division early and given stamina doubts won’t want to lead until the final furlong. A doubtful stayer certainly does not want to increase the stamina test by going for home three out Steve.
Value Is EverythingI am just quoting the statistics Gingertipster, no Derby winner has come from a female line so packed with speed. Two furlongs can make a lot of difference in a race that Coolmore will surely orchestrate to test his stamina and that of other doubtfuls, to the limit.
There are plenty of sprinters further back in the family Crepello (including champion sprinter Habibti) but that is too far back to mean much. The dam herself is unraced. Golden Horn’s only sibling Eastern Belle won at 10 furlongs and probably stays at least 11f. Sire Cape Cross although a miler himself – is not a bad influence of stamina. There’s been many Derby winners with that type of breeding.
Value Is EverythingJust to add to the farce, O’Brien has said he thinks that Gleneagles is being left in at tomorrow’s stage and that he thinks Found is not being supplemented. Apparently nobody has told him for sure so he is just assuming this is the situation that will transpire.
It would be nice to be able to tell the press with some degree of certainty for a change, maybe it’s too much to expect that the punter could have some solid information just for once
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Interesting to see Gleneagles is suddenly 7-1 on Betfair………
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
Did Atzeni really think about getting off Elm Park to ride Sumbal? Would it have been such a disaster for Elm Park’s chances? Atzeni has made a complete horlicks of things on more than one occasion this season. In short he doesn’t look the same asset he might have done last season. If the track is the negative that some believe (or even hope for) I would have thought it is only going to be a major issue if the horse finds himself parked out wide. Consequently, I would have thought Atzeni should be looking to bounce out, bag the rail and make it a severe test of stamina. With the top end of market full of horses who might be better at shorter trips I can’t see there being any mad scramble for the lead.
I’m sufficiently convinced that GH will improve for the 12f trip, that I’ve just taken some 20s for the Arc – autumn ground or not! :)
Just to add to the farce, O’Brien has said he thinks that Gleneagles is being left in at tomorrow’s stage and that he thinks Found is not being supplemented. Apparently nobody has told him for sure so he is just assuming this is the situation that will transpire.
It would be nice to be able to tell the press with some degree of certainty for a change, maybe it’s too much to expect that the punter could have some solid information just for once
“I think there is another stage tomorrow and I didn’t hear that he was going to be taken out, so I presume he is going to be left in tomorrow – I presume,” said the Ballydoyle handler.
Owners Coolmore also have the option of adding the filly Found into the field on Monday.
O’Brien said: “I didn’t hear anything about the filly being supplemented in it yet, anyway.
“All the colts that are in it, are in it.
“There is a supplementary stage tomorrow and I didn’t hear that the filly would be supplemented.”
I didn’t hear, I didn’t hear, I didn’t hear – Well bloody LISTEN…..!!!!
Blackbeard to conquer the World
Re the Golden Horn stamina debate, please indulge me…
In 1968, prior to the 1,500 metres at the Mexico Olympics the brilliant American , world record holder, the 21 year old Jim Ryan was the hot favourite. He held the 800 and 1,500 metre records and was universally feared because of his astonishing finishing speed, at the distance.
He could regularly run a 53 or 54 second final lap and this was seen as decisive against other 1,500 metre men (milers).Up against him in Mexico was a 28 year old Kenyan, called Kipchoge ‘Kip’ Keino, the very first in what would become a long line of great Kenyan middle distance runners. Keino was already a world record holder at longer distances (3,000 & 5,000 mtrs) but was seen as no match for young Ryun over 1,500 metres due to Ryun’s inherent speed.
Before the final in Mexico, Keino was asked by a pressman how he could hope to beat Ryun because as the journalist said, “Ryun can run the last lap in 53 seconds.”
“Really”, said Keino, “then let’s run the last lap first.In the race, Keino chased a very fast pace from his team mate in 3rd place, led himself from 800m out and won by 20 metres from Ryun, still the widest winning margin in the history of the event.
At Epsom, in the Derby, they always run the last lap first.
I wonder if coolmore wished they had entered highland reel in the Derby. Cracking run in the French derby and looks like a decent bet. The eclipse will probably be the next run.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
Just to add to the farce, O’Brien has said he thinks that Gleneagles is being left in at tomorrow’s stage and that he thinks Found is not being supplemented. Apparently nobody has told him for sure so he is just assuming this is the situation that will transpire.It would be nice to be able to tell the press with some degree of certainty for a change, maybe it’s too much to expect that the punter could have some solid information just for once
“I think there is another stage tomorrow and I didn’t hear that he was going to be taken out, so I presume he is going to be left in tomorrow – I presume,” said the Ballydoyle handler.
Owners Coolmore also have the option of adding the filly Found into the field on Monday.O’Brien said: “I didn’t hear anything about the filly being supplemented in it yet, anyway.
“All the colts that are in it, are in it.
“There is a supplementary stage tomorrow and I didn’t hear that the filly would be supplemented.”
<span class=”d4pbbc-font-color” style=”color: red”>I didn’t hear, I didn’t hear, I didn’t hear – Well bloody LISTEN…..!!!!</span>
To be fair Nathan, he can’t listen if they are not talking to him.
A simple text from the “Boys” wasn’t too much too ask regarding Gleneagles and Found in the Derby. They could have kept it short, a simple
“G-On and F-Off”
Would have sufficed and put us all in the picture.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I wonder if coolmore wished they had entered highland reel in the Derby. Cracking run in the French derby and looks like a decent bet. The eclipse will probably be the next run.
He ran a lot better today but I suspect that race lacked a bit depth today. Having said that, I’d rather have him pitching for me than Hans Holbein and Kilimanjaro, who lack speed and form to my eyes. The stats are strongly against them based on their ratings coming into the race.
I read an article that showed that 10 out the last 11 Derby winners had a Racing Post rating of at least 119 coming into the Derby. Only Gleneagles on 123 and Golden Horn on 122 meet that stat, although Elm Park, Jack Hobbs and Zawraq are probably about that level, if not quite there yet. Zawraq and Jack Hobbs have more scope with less runs under their belt. Hans Holbein and Kilimanjaro are a good way short on 108 and 107 ratings.
I think I’d send my 123 rated horse in to bat come Saturday than trust one of the others to find a stone on faster ground.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>mickeyjp wrote:</div>
I wonder if coolmore wished they had entered highland reel in the Derby. Cracking run in the French derby and looks like a decent bet. The eclipse will probably be the next run.He ran a lot better today but I suspect that race lacked a bit depth today. Having said that, I’d rather have him pitching for me than Hans Holbein and Kilimanjaro, who lack speed and form to my eyes. The stats are strongly against them based on their ratings coming into the race.
I read an article that showed that 10 out the last 11 Derby winners had a Racing Post rating of at least 119 coming into the Derby. Only Gleneagles on 123 and Golden Horn on 122 meet that stat, although Elm Park, Jack Hobbs and Zawraq are probably about that level, if not quite there yet. Zawraq and Jack Hobbs have more scope with less runs under their belt. Hans Holbein and Kilimanjaro are a good way short on 108 and 107 ratings.
I think I’d send my 123 rated horse in to bat come Saturday than trust one of the others to find a stone on faster ground.
Aye good try but Elm Park is only 1 pound short and Gleneagles won’t get home in a horse box
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>stevecaution wrote:</div>
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>mickeyjp wrote:</div>
I wonder if coolmore wished they had entered highland reel in the Derby. Cracking run in the French derby and looks like a decent bet. The eclipse will probably be the next run.He ran a lot better today but I suspect that race lacked a bit depth today. Having said that, I’d rather have him pitching for me than Hans Holbein and Kilimanjaro, who lack speed and form to my eyes. The stats are strongly against them based on their ratings coming into the race.
I read an article that showed that 10 out the last 11 Derby winners had a Racing Post rating of at least 119 coming into the Derby. Only Gleneagles on 123 and Golden Horn on 122 meet that stat, although Elm Park, Jack Hobbs and Zawraq are probably about that level, if not quite there yet. Zawraq and Jack Hobbs have more scope with less runs under their belt. Hans Holbein and Kilimanjaro are a good way short on 108 and 107 ratings.
I think I’d send my 123 rated horse in to bat come Saturday than trust one of the others to find a stone on faster ground.
Aye good try but Elm Park is only 1 pound short and Gleneagles won’t get home in a horse box
It’s not a “good try”, it’s a fact.
I acknowledged that Elm Park and and a couple of others were not far short and the gist of the post was that Hans Holbein and Kilimanjaro are way short of the standard.
Do you really think they would have left Gleneagles in this long, or even entered him in the first place if they felt he were not worthy of a try at the trip. Gleneagles has 20 lbs in hand of Kilimanjaro on the official ratings and that gives him some leeway even if the trip is too far.
They will all “get” the trip, in the sense that they will all finish. The key is how long it takes them to do so. I’ve seen plenty “stout stayers” tailed off behind the class horses before now.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
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