- This topic has 650 replies, 50 voices, and was last updated 9 years, 4 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Steve how do you rate Christopher Marlow as he has interesting owners Michael Tabor and Rachel Hood, trained by John Gosden and an interesting pedigree. I had 33’s about this horse the other day and was on line betting when a message appeared saying the book price had changed to 25’s which would indicate that either the bookies had a major change of heart or a lot of money had been laid which I suspect may be the latter especially with Michael Tabor’s background. he would be in the know as to how good the O’Brien horses are. The horse has a Gaileo line on the dam side and the sires line shows A.P Indy and Seattle Slew so looks like he has stamina as well.
I might have this horse completely wrong, but I cannot have Elm Park for either the 2000 or Derby.
I think it is way too short for both races at 12s. Don’t want to crab the horse as its done nothing wrong, but I just can’t have it as a classic winner.
I think the analogy to Kingston Hill is likely to be accurate in how I see Elm Park performing in the Guineas. However, I don’t think it will perform anywhere as well as Kingston Hill did in the Derby. I just see it wandering and hanging all over Epsom Downs and finishing in midfield.
Steve how do you rate Christopher Marlow as he has interesting owners Michael Tabor and Rachel Hood, trained by John Gosden and an interesting pedigree. I had 33’s about this horse the other day and was on line betting when a message appeared saying the book price had changed to 25’s which would indicate that either the bookies had a major change of heart or a lot of money had been laid which I suspect may be the latter especially with Michael Tabor’s background. he would be in the know as to how good the O’Brien horses are. The horse has a Gaileo line on the dam side and the sires line shows A.P Indy and Seattle Slew so looks like he has stamina as well.
Pickup, I find Christophermarlowe very hard to assess accurately.
His form thus far sees him rated 96, meaning he has quite a bit to improve to figure. Of course, with the hands he’s in and a winter on his back he may well make big improvement at middle distances this season.
The form of his first run worked out well in respect of the 2nd, 3rd and 4th all winning next time but it was a maiden race in all three cases, so not too much to get excited about yet. His next win was unusual, being at Epsom, an awkward track that many trainers would shy from taking a good two year old to. Most horses coming to the Derby will have the question mark about handling the track but Christophermarlowe has the T-shirt hanging in his box regarding that old chestnut.
I had a look through his sire Tapit’s record as a stallion and it is almost all USA raced horses that have been successful for him. I find it hard to predict this horse’s prospects in the Derby and couldn’t back him at this stage, especially with stable mate Richard Pankhurst being so positive in the Guineas betting and, like Christophermarlowe, also entered in the Dante. At this stage I would rather have the horse with the stronger form and equally lightly raced, bearing in mind they are the same odds. Christophermarlowe is the more likely stayer you would think, but overall I feel Dicky Panky is more likely to reward the double carpet plunge.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Steve I reckon Christopher Marlow has been laid out for the Derby, even Tapit’s sire AP Indy was middle distance and the family line oozes class and stamina and look at Seattle Slew record, topped with Gaileo on the dam side. Whether he wins it or not is open to question but the key is getting them to the race and with John Gosden training him and his wife being part owner, I can imagine the earache he would be getting if he don’t get him there fit and raring to go. 33’s was still available last time I looked and although I like Richard Pankhurst for the 2000 I got 16’s on him I don’t see him as a Derby horse yet and I don’t think Godolphin will run him as such as they tend to have quite a few in their locker to choose from. Your right about Epsom though it says the camber on the run in tends to unbalance horses as does coming down the hill so if you have a horse that has experienced it in racing that is likely a bonus to one that has yet to encounter it. I also think the Michael Tabor connection is interesting as he is known to like to lay good money down and made his fortune that way I believe. For the bookies to lay 33’s then move to 25’s shows I think some big money was being laid somewhere. What I don’t understand is Paddy Power & Ladbrokes have 33’s and they usually have an ear to the ground so the money wasn’t being laid with them which is what I would have expected to have seen.
Steve I reckon Christopher Marlow has been laid out for the Derby, even Tapit’s sire AP Indy was middle distance and the family line oozes class and stamina and look at Seattle Slew record, topped with Gaileo on the dam side. Whether he wins it or not is open to question but the key is getting them to the race and with John Gosden training him and his wife being part owner, I can imagine the earache he would be getting if he don’t get him there fit and raring to go. 33’s was still available last time I looked and although I like Richard Pankhurst for the 2000 I got 16’s on him I don’t see him as a Derby horse yet and I don’t think Godolphin will run him as such as they tend to have quite a few in their locker to choose from. Your right about Epsom though it says the camber on the run in tends to unbalance horses as does coming down the hill so if you have a horse that has experienced it in racing that is likely a bonus to one that has yet to encounter it. I also think the Michael Tabor connection is interesting as he is known to like to lay good money down and made his fortune that way I believe. For the bookies to lay 33’s then move to 25’s shows I think some big money was being laid somewhere. What I don’t understand is Paddy Power & Ladbrokes have 33’s and they usually have an ear to the ground so the money wasn’t being laid with them which is what I would have expected to have seen.
I am not sure it takes as much money to move a horse from 33/1 to 25/1 as you might think. I don’t have access to the Data but Ante-Post markets are not popular with some people because of the prospect that your money could be lost without a run. At this stage a horse at 33/1 would probably be cut to 25/1 after a relatively modest bet I would think. It takes a lot more money to move one that is quite short in the betting, particularly come the day of the race. You will often see horses in the classic betting pushed back out as the mainstream money comes to give more liquidity to the overall market as it is added to the ante-post book.
As you say, you would expect a more widespread cutting of odds if there was a gamble afoot. As we saw with Gleneagles in the 2000 Guineas as the money came for him, other firms quickly follow suit and I am not sure how much of it is actual money taken and how much of it is cutting their odds so that they can still be bigger odds than the firms who have taken the cash, but get away with smaller liabilities and still be one of the best prices in “The Village”
I’ll be interested to see if The Dante is Christophermarlowe’s first port of call this season, he’s a relatively early foal, having been born on the 6th of February, so he could physically be a couple of months older than some of his rivals this season. He’s an interesting runner and we are all guessing to one extent or other with all the runners at this early stage.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Fans of French horse Epicuris should perhaps be thinking of backing him before he runs today in the Group 3 La Force at Longchamp (1.50pm)
The ground is very soft and the trip 10f, both of which the horse has coped with before. He’s also the top rated on Racing Post ratings, so it’s hardly surprising that Paddy Power have him 1/2 Fav in early betting.
All the factors are probably there for a wide margin success, swiftly followed by a stampede to get money on for The Derby. William Hill go 20/1 and, if you fancy the horse, it’s surely essential to get that price now if you are willing to take the risk he won’t run. If he wins today, you are probably looking at a good bit shorter price if he impresses, and will still be facing the unknown as to whether he is a definite runner.
I’ll be keeping an eye on him for sure.
Al Kazeem also runs today in France and is 5lb top rated on RPR. He’s a more generous 5/2 but the big ask is his fitness level with the stable very quiet at the moment. Just watching seems the sensible option for this admirable horse who found some of his former greatness after an aborted effort at stud, with a great effort behind Noble Mission last time in The Champion Stakes.
Epicuris 20/1 Epsom Derby (price alert because he’s running today)
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Fans of French horse Epicuris should perhaps be thinking of backing him before he runs today in the Group 3 La Force at Longchamp (1.50pm)
The ground is very soft and the trip 10f, both of which the horse has coped with before. He’s also the top rated on Racing Post ratings, so it’s hardly surprising that Paddy Power have him 1/2 Fav in early betting.
All the factors are probably there for a wide margin success, swiftly followed by a stampede to get money on for The Derby. William Hill go 20/1 and, if you fancy the horse, it’s surely essential to get that price now if you are willing to take the risk he won’t run. If he wins today, you are probably looking at a good bit shorter price if he impresses, and will still be facing the unknown as to whether he is a definite runner.
I’ll be keeping an eye on him for sure.
Al Kazeem also runs today in France and is 5lb top rated on RPR. He’s a more generous 5/2 but the big ask is his fitness level with the stable very quiet at the moment. Just watching seems the sensible option for this admirable horse who found some of his former greatness after an aborted effort at stud, with a great effort behind Noble Mission last time in The Champion Stakes.
Epicuris 20/1 Epsom Derby (price alert because he’s running today)
Well, that’s the first bubble of the season well and truly popped, seemed to travel well enough at the front but the distress signals were out pretty quickly. Unless he was way short of fitness, he looks miles away from Group 1 class on that showing.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
cant make my mind up if badly needed it .or is just as slow as boat
Might be a bit of both.
As I said earlier, 10f on heavy is quite a test for a 2yo horse stamina wise and, although class can offset that to some extent, it’s still something that gives me some concern when thinking about Derbies, because the old saying “If you think you’ve got enough stamina for the Derby, you’ve got too much” is often proved pertinent.
I think it’s laughable value that 25/1 is as far as he was eased in the betting after that. Bookies who are keeping him at 16/1 either have very little initiative or very tiny testicles.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
only two rivals for John F Kennedy in sundays Ballysax.Success Days who won last week,but was well held last term in listed class last ,is held on that running by the other runner Zafilani,when third and fifth behind Parish Boy(who runs in 2000gns trial early on card
only two rivals for John F Kennedy in sundays Ballysax.Success Days who won last week,but was well held last term in listed class last ,is held on that running by the other runner Zafilani,when third and fifth behind Parish Boy(who runs in 2000gns trial early on card
It’s a bitterly disappointing field and we will learn nothing about John F Kennedy. He’s going to go off mighty short and will probably win cosily. It won’t stop the bookies from shortening him up for The Derby though.
For me it seems sensible to wait for the 2000 Guineas before going in heavy on anything at a shortish price.
I have been sticking to prices over 20/1 for now and have had a speculation on Richard Pankhurst at 100/1 to do the double.
At these odds a saver at a shorter price won’t cost the earth.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Any thoughts on horses just enter for derby steve
MIGWAR
GREY LIONBoth from france
Any thoughts on horses just enter for derby steve
MIGWAR
GREY LIONBoth from france
I wrote a piece about Migwar last year Darren. It was only a short reply where I am sure I said he was my top pick of some French horses who had shown promise in their 2yo races. Searching the forum comes up with nothing but I am fairly confident he was the one I nominated to follow. Usually my reluctance with these French Derby types is based on whether they will come over and the modest record on the race itself.
I did read somewhere last week that Freddie Head had said he was more likely than not to run at Epsom and if I had, had more time I would have had a dig round for odds, just to see. There’s nothing other than Betfair quotes at the moment and Migwar is about the 40/1 mark and Grey Lion about 50/1.
Migwar won by 5l last month on heavy ground and his only other win was on soft. Will better ground at Epsom be a combination he likes? I like Freddie Head as a trainer and being by Sea The Stars, Migwar could have plenty to offer this year.
Looking at his two runs, Migwar wins in contrasting style. On his debut he gets to the front early enough and ends up holding on from the second, who closes him down late on. On his second start the ground is really soft and he doesn’t look in a very promising position entering the closing stages. He has a fair bit of ground to make up and the normal thinking is that it’s best to be near the front in such testing conditions. He starts to make good headway though and picks them all off before drawing away to win by five lengths.
Judging by the way he moves, I think better ground may actually help Migwar. He seems able to pick up in his races and he looks likely to improve for time.
My initial impression, which I can’t find on the Forum now, was that he would make a good 3yo and it’s interesting to me that Freddie Head has said that Epsom is the preferred option. For my money, he’s a better bet if you can get the 42/1 or whatever on Betfair, than Epicuris is, sitting at 25/1 after having looked rather uninspiring in his first start of the season. I think Migwar will get one and a half miles and he’s not to be dismissed lightly, despite having some way to go to reach Group 1 level for now.
This is a video of the closing stages of his 2nd race on 7th March:-
Grey Lion is a good looking grey son of Galileo and had a very similar start to his career to that of Migwar, in that he looked like scoring quite well but got closed down late on. Maybe a mixture of it being first time out and idling slightly caused his winning margin to be reduced by the winning line.
His second start shows him in a better light and although he was a shade of odds on, he wins with a fair degree of authority I think. Looking at the way he runs, I would be more inclined to think a bit of cut would suit but that’s just a gut feeling for now. Like Migwar, he seems to find more in the closing stages but his form needs to come up another notch or two to be competitive.
The closing stages of Grey Lion’s last run can be seen here and it is noticeable that these French horses seem to be on the go before the Irish and British ones. This race was on 24th March:-
I prefer Migwar at this stage but they have strikingly similar profiles and there are only 6 days between them in actual age. The French colts at Epsom is a betting monkey that I find hard to shake off my back though and I’d rather be an observer for now, than a backer.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
Last year i asked you about any french 2yos and you mention migwar when i asked your thoughts on VEDOUMA and few other french 2yo maiden winners.
As well as John F Kennedy at 1/6 or shorter in the Ballysax, we also get a chance to look at the dark horse for money from the O’Brien stable at Leopardstown tomorrow.
Jamaica has seen some significant support from big odds, into a best price of 16/1 for the Epsom Derby and his chance doesn’t seem that strong based on his 2yo form, which left him rated 102, about a stone shy of the top juveniles.
It’s probably surprising to see Jamaica running in this Guineas trial over a mile if Epsom is the goal, and he was described as “one pace” in the closing stages of the Acomb at York. By Galileo out of an Anabaa mare, it is not my area of expertise to say where he will prove most effective on the distance scale. Anabaa’s best offspring has been super mare Goldikova.
Entered in 2000 Guineas, Dante and Epsom Derby, they seem to be keeping their options open. He will face the colt described by trainer Dermot Weld as his best prospect this season, Zawraq tomorrow and this fellow is a warm favourite in the early prices at about 7/4, despite being bigger odds than Jamaica for Epsom at the moment. In behind the favourite the betting is generally confused with three horses fighting for the second favourite spot. Jamaica is tight with Jim Bolger’s Parish Boy and Ger Lyons’ Endless Drama, with all three horses varying across the list of bookies.
Endless Drama was very impressive on his only start but he steps up two furlongs here and being by Lope De Vega I am not sure how he’ll benefit or otherwise from the mile trip here.
Parish Boy has no such doubts, having won at 9f as a two year old. A narrow winner from the same horse twice last season (Order Of St George) he faces the opposite question to Endless Drama and you just wonder if one or two will have more toe than him.
Zawraq beat Sir Isaac Newton half a length on his only start and that was at 7f. A mile should be fine for him, even on the soft ground.
Jamaica will need to be quite smart to win this and justify his odds for Epsom. At the odds Parish Boy makes some appeal being 7/2 and with the proven stamina. They have popped a hood on him for the first time, for whatever reason, and I assume stable mate Mesmerism is here solely to make sure it’s a strong pace.
Endless Drama concerns me regarding stamina on this ground and is one I’d be against, despite being 2/1 favourite on the early price guide for the race.
The most interesting race of the day for me.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I took the 9/4 about Zawraq for Leopardstown, considering the stable is in fine form I’m fairly confident, I had £10 about Sir Isaac Newton for the derby before Zawraq took his scalp last season and I’m confident that he will confirm his class here. Pat Smullen missed a ride on Pale Mimosa in a group 1(Prix Royal Oak in France) to ride in the race on Zawraq so he must think of him highly. I would not be taking any odds for him for the derby though. 8-10f looks like his trip.
It will be interesting Sunday, with JFK being a certainty, in a rather ridiculous 3 runner group 3.
I’ve had £2 on the machine about Zarkar just incase, because he is impeccably bred, being by Galileo out of Zarkava.
I took the 9/4 about Zawraq for Leopardstown, considering the stable is in fine form I’m fairly confident, I had £10 about Sir Isaac Newton for the derby before Zawraq took his scalp last season and I’m confident that he will confirm his class here. Pat Smullen missed a ride on Pale Mimosa in a group 1(Prix Royal Oak in France) to ride in the race on Zawraq so he must think of him highly. I would not be taking any odds for him for the derby though. 8-10f looks like his trip.
It will be interesting Sunday, with JFK being a certainty, in a rather ridiculous 3 runner group 3.
I’ve had £2 on the machine about Zarkar just incase, because he is impeccably bred, being by Galileo out of Zarkava.
He’s a very interesting prospect and I think 9/4 may look a good price. The main concern is the soft ground and with Parish Boy having experience and proven stamina it might make life tough.
Jamaica seems pretty weak in the betting but the market still looks a bit confused with Zawraq between 11/8 to as low as 10/11 across the boards and Jamaica between 3/1 and 11/2. Parish Boy is more stable at about 3/1 and Endless Drama a general 9/2 shot.
There’s certainly not the support for Jamaica to match his move from big odds to one of the more fancied ones for the Derby.
Good luck with Zawraq.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.