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Looking ahead to Epsom now that the trials are all but over, I can’t help but feel more and more pleased about my 66/1 Hans Holbein. I’ll get a closer look at the Dante form during the week but it looks like Timeform’s huge 124p for Golden Horn is based on their high rating for Elm Park whose ability was downplayed quite a bit by Simon Holt in the Weekender. With contenders dropping out like bunnies on cheap batteries in a Duracell advert, Hans Holbein looks sure to make the frame and if the stable decide to make it a proper stamina test he might end up out on his own, with the rest out on their feet, at the end.
Before I backed Hans Holbein I’d looked among those around the same price for Jack Hobbs. When I didn’t see him I presumed he wasn’t entered. Then I noticed him sitting at 8/1. After winning a handicap off 85?? OK he won incredibly impressively but all the same… I suspect that Golden Horn is about on a par with Hans Holbein and with doubts about stamina I’m not too concerned that he’s being supplemented and the current best price of 2/1 (‘LMFAO’, I understand, is the expression we’re looking for) is based on Timeform’s rating and nothing else.
Next in the betting is Zawraq (6/1) who is as likely to stay as Gleneagles or Golden Horn and who beat horses rated 95 and 94 in the Guineas Trial. Then Elm Park and Jack Hobbs at around 8/1 and the latter will probably miss the race. Then Hans Holbein (14/1) who is a guaranteed stayer and who has won one of the premier trials. And that’s about it.
All in all it’s shaping up as the worst Derby in modern times so I wonder if there’s a Shaamit lurking and smirking, ready to win on its seasonal debut.
Looking ahead to Epsom now that the trials are all but over, I can’t help but feel more and more pleased about my 66/1 Hans Holbein. I’ll get a closer look at the Dante form during the week but it looks like Timeform’s huge 124p for Golden Horn is based on their high rating for Elm Park whose ability was downplayed quite a bit by Simon Holt in the Weekender. With contenders dropping out like bunnies on cheap batteries in a Duracell advert, Hans Holbein looks sure to make the frame and if the stable decide to make it a proper stamina test he might end up out on his own, with the rest out on their feet, at the end.
Before I backed Hans Holbein I’d looked among those around the same price for Jack Hobbs. When I didn’t see him I presumed he wasn’t entered. Then I noticed him sitting at 8/1. After winning a handicap off 85?? OK he won incredibly impressively but all the same… I suspect that Golden Horn is about on a par with Hans Holbein and with doubts about stamina I’m not too concerned that he’s being supplemented and the current best price of 2/1 (‘LMFAO’, I understand, is the expression we’re looking for) is based on Timeform’s rating and nothing else.
Next in the betting is Zawraq (6/1) who is as likely to stay as Gleneagles or Golden Horn and who beat horses rated 95 and 94 in the Guineas Trial. Then Elm Park and Jack Hobbs at around 8/1 and the latter will probably miss the race. Then Hans Holbein (14/1) who is a guaranteed stayer and who has won one of the premier trials. And that’s about it.
All in all it’s shaping up as the worst Derby in modern times so I wonder if there’s a Shaamit lurking and smirking, ready to win on its seasonal debut.
I’ve tried really hard to get enthused about Hans Holbein but I just can’t get there.
He took three goes to get off the mark and his maiden win isn’t very exciting looking. Runner up Valac was beaten at 4/7 next time, in a Naas maiden, 4th horse Game Set Dash was hammered at odds of 4/6 in a Dundalk maiden. The 5th horse Wardell won a Limerick maiden, dropped back to a mile and on good to firm ground, compared to the soft surface he raced on against Hans Holbein.
That begs the question for me with Hans Holbein, in that almost all his form is on soft ground. You say he has won a premier trial but any trial is only as good as the field assembled and this year’s Chester Vase looked a very moderate line up.
Future Empire was early jt Fav with Hans Holbein at 5/2 but it quickly became apparent that the Ballydoyle horse was the one for money and I felt the Godolphin horse had no chance at the trip on the ground. As I explained already, Storm The Stars took a bit of time to break his maiden tag and I remain sceptical that he improved 13lbs in finishing runner up in the Chester Vase. Even if it is correct, Golden Horn has at least a stone in hand on the Haggas maiden winner.
Take Hans Holbein’s Chester Vase win away an it’s laughable that he could win a Derby with the form he had in the bank. It seems too much to be coincidence that a serious test of stamina in the mud has led to the 1st two in the Chester Vase earning much better ratings than previously recorded. If the ground is faster at Epsom, all logic suggests both horses will struggle to record such good looking performances.
I don’t see anything in Golden Horn’s make up that suggests he’ll be a short runner. I was a little worried by his French Derby entry but having heard that this was the owner’s personal “project” for the horse, and having seen how he ran in the Dante, I reckon he’ll be fine at Cheltenham, never mind Epsom ;-).
I think it was Simon Rowlands who said in an article that the actual distance difference between the Dante and the Derby could be as little as 338 yards, depending which distance figures you choose to believe and if that is the case then I see no problem for Golden Horn, who can sit behind, and clearly outspeed his rivals in the closing stages.
I highly doubt Timeform’s 124p figure is the reason why Golden Horn is as short for the race as he is. He’s won the best trial and is unbeaten. He has made big progress from run 1 to run 2 and run 2 to run 3. There’s a serious lack of solid opposition, so it’s hardly surprising he’s favourite. I expect he’s not done improving yet and he’ll go past Hans Holbein like a ferret going down a rabbit hole on Derby Day, unless the ground is bottomless.
I’m pretty sure we’ll all be nodding our heads and saying “Well, that was obvious” in the aftermath of this year’s Derby.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I agree with a lot of that, Steve, but there are a number of points worth making.
I understand anyone’s lack of enthusiasm about Hans Holbein but would you be dismissing him so readily if he was still 66/1 after what he did at Chester? The price is part of the reason for my enthusiasm. I think his soft ground form is purely coincidental. Being a Montjeu/Shirley Heights there’s no reason for him to require soft although I wouldn’t want it too firm.
I agree the Chester race may have fallen apart but I expected it to and I expected him to take advantage of it, which he did. My rating for him for the race is only 110+ but I think there’s more to be read into him given O’Brien’s record in it and the subsequent form of his winners. He only sends G1 horses for it. They might not be Epsom G1s but they win G1s.
The point about taking that win away is irrelevant. Take Jack Hobbs’s Sandown win away and he’d have been 50/1 for the Dante. You can’t take it away. It’s there in the form book.
As for Golden Horn, John Gosden and Rab Havlin have now both stated publicly that Golden Horn wasn’t even on the Derby radar until last Friday, three weeks before the race. They thought he had a future, with the French Derby as the right target for it but both men have cited a piece of work done last Friday as making them sit up and take notice. And as for his stamina, the furlong and a half difference is huge when you’re running out of energy. Make no mistake, Coolmore will ensure the guts are run out of any non-stayers. Golden Horn might be good enough to recoup the supplement by being placed but I still wouldn’t be surprised if they opted for France nearer the time.
You might be right in saying it’s not just Timeform’s big rating that is behind his position and price in the market but it’s a major player in it. The visual impression in the Dante, the fact that the highly-rated Elm Park and the previously impressive Jack Hobbs will be factors, but they’re factored into Timeform’s rating. I think wrongly.
I think Simon Holt is right about Elm Park being over-rated and Andrew Balding has said he wasn’t fully fit the other day. Jack Hobbs remained an unknown quantity in this company and the others ran so badly that they’ve been taken out of the Derby altogether. So what has Golden Horn really done that makes him worthy of such a short price for the biggest race in the world for 3yos?
Like I say, on the other hand it looks like a really duff crop of 3yos and it may be that he ends up the best of them, which might also account in part for his price, but if there is a couple of lengths either way between him and Hans Holbein one and a half out at Epsom I know which one I’d rather be with.
If Golden Horn relaxes off a strong pace, as he did at York, he’ll have no problem getting the extra 300 or so yards (see Simon’s Timeform piece about rail movements, then add the fact that GH challenged down the outside).
Off a slow pace, his turn of foot would see them off. His Dante form alone gives him the best chance without even taking into account his likely improvement now that, as Havlin said, ‘the penny has dropped’.
If Golden Horn relaxes off a strong pace, as he did at York, he’ll have no problem getting the extra 300 or so yards (see Simon’s Timeform piece about rail movements, then add the fact that GH challenged down the outside).
Off a slow pace, his turn of foot would see them off. His Dante form alone gives him the best chance without even taking into account his likely improvement now that, as Havlin said, ‘the penny has dropped’.
But if he was half-speeding against slow horses (which he was), stands to reason he’d give the impression of staying further. He was cruising, only came off the bridle 1 1/2f out and needed just one smack to get past them.
Having said that, if I were the owner, absolutely I’d supplement. It’s the Epsom Derby. But I wouldn’t be confident of the form stacking up at all and personally I don’t think he wins. He’s not shown enough against quick horses IMO and the owner’s obviously quite confident he won’t stay. You can get away with 12f against slow horses, but you won’t get away with it in the Derby.
Well, the reason he might have been cruising and needed just a smack is that he’s a real champion. We shall see soon enough.
I know little about breeding, but he’s by the same sire as Sea The Stars, who seemed untroubled by the trip in the Derby and Arc
Sea the Stars and Ouija Board were by Cape Cross out of mares with staying pedigrees. Golden Horn’s female line has produced such as On the House, Habibti and the sprinter D’Uberville. He traces to Tessa Gillian who was second in a 1000 Guineas and was half sister to Royal Charger who was a sprinter and didn’t get anything beyond a mile and a quarter. Tessa Gillian produced fast horses to staying stallions. There is the addition of Nureyev at the third remove that might redress this, but to be honest I am surprised he stays as well as he does. The pedigree traces to Mumtaz Mahal. His class might carry him to the line. If it does he will be a most unusual Derby winner on breeding.
Are people honestly talking this much about Hans Holbein’s chances? Jesus wept…
I haven’t been following the full thread so am not sure how many people beyond me are talking about Hans Holbein but if offering an opinion results in this kind of reply I won’t be hanging around for the end.
For the record, I’m talking up his chances in the absences of what I consider to be proper Derby horses. We’ve just had one of the poorest Guineas for some years and the Derby is shaping up as a lot worse so it is within that context and the price taken (66/1) that HH can be fancied.
I also said:
All in all it’s shaping up as the worst Derby in modern times so I wonder if there’s a Shaamit lurking and smirking, ready to win on its seasonal debut.
It’s silly season isn’t it? “it’s a rubbish year” “they’re all duffers” “they’re slow” – We have a lovely, unbeaten colt as fav and some fast improving contenders. How about we give them a chance?
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Zarkava wrote:</div>
Are people honestly talking this much about Hans Holbein’s chances? Jesus wept…I haven’t been following the full thread so am not sure how many people beyond me are talking about Hans Holbein but if offering an opinion results in this kind of reply I won’t be hanging around for the end.
For the record, I’m talking up his chances in the absences of what I consider to be proper Derby horses. We’ve just had one of the poorest Guineas for some years and the Derby is shaping up as a lot worse so it is within that context and the price taken (66/1) that HH can be fancied.
I also said:
All in all it’s shaping up as the worst Derby in modern times so I wonder if there’s a Shaamit lurking and smirking, ready to win on its seasonal debut.
It’s a fairly standard response from this poster Maurice. Trust me – we are not all like that!
"this perfect mix of poetry and destruction, this glory of rhythm, power and majesty: the undisputed champion of the world!!!"
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Zarkava wrote:</div>
Are people honestly talking this much about Hans Holbein’s chances? Jesus wept…I haven’t been following the full thread so am not sure how many people beyond me are talking about Hans Holbein but if offering an opinion results in this kind of reply I won’t be hanging around for the end.
For the record, I’m talking up his chances in the absences of what I consider to be proper Derby horses. We’ve just had one of the poorest Guineas for some years and the Derby is shaping up as a lot worse so it is within that context and the price taken (66/1) that HH can be fancied.
I also said:
All in all it’s shaping up as the worst Derby in modern times so I wonder if there’s a Shaamit lurking and smirking, ready to win on its seasonal debut.
It’s silly season isn’t it? “it’s a rubbish year” “they’re all duffers” “they’re slow” – We have a lovely, unbeaten colt as fav and some fast improving contenders. How about we give them a chance?
I think we’ve seen some nice horses! I think Golden Horn is very good over 10f. He is very quick and could be something to look forward to later in the year over 10f. In terms of Derby material, I do think we’re short. I think the winner runs on Friday though. Looks a class apart from anything else.
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Maurice wrote:</div>
<div class=”d4p-bbt-quote-title”>Zarkava wrote:</div>
Are people honestly talking this much about Hans Holbein’s chances? Jesus wept…I haven’t been following the full thread so am not sure how many people beyond me are talking about Hans Holbein but if offering an opinion results in this kind of reply I won’t be hanging around for the end.
For the record, I’m talking up his chances in the absences of what I consider to be proper Derby horses. We’ve just had one of the poorest Guineas for some years and the Derby is shaping up as a lot worse so it is within that context and the price taken (66/1) that HH can be fancied.
I also said:
All in all it’s shaping up as the worst Derby in modern times so I wonder if there’s a Shaamit lurking and smirking, ready to win on its seasonal debut.
It’s a fairly standard response from this poster Maurice. Trust me – we are not all like that!
I get my tone is direct but I shall work on that
Hans Holbein ran in 2 maidens at bad tracks. He was beaten by Aloft, who I think is slow. He then beat a bad horse at Leopardstown, then got lucky to win at Chester. I think Storm the Stars is a very good horse (despite being beaten by Aloft on his debut – Haggas’ always need the run). But the 3rd, Medrano, is not good I don’t think. Hans H is bred very well but I think the Derby is way past his ability level. Also very late May foal. My fancy is early May foal cos has been done before (High Rise).
It’s silly season isn’t it? “it’s a rubbish year” “they’re all duffers” “they’re slow” – We have a lovely, unbeaten colt as fav and some fast improving contenders. How about we give them a chance?
I have to admit I don’t like it when people jump to similar conclusions but I also don’t like it when people go OTT with praise for moderateness. As a ratings compiler, I like to think my opinion is measured according to the evidence. Admittedly it all boils down to my interpretation of the evidence so ultimately it can be argued that it’s just my opinion.
I read this afternoon that the BHA handicapper charged with the Guineas assessment rates the race above average but then he offers his evidence which all points to most recent renewals being nowhere near as good as I have them so it’s important to contextualise these assessments.
In the same way, the figures presented on The Morning Line by Jamie Lynch of Timeform for Golden Horn’s Dante suggested that most Derbies in the last 10 years were some way short of the G1 norm of 126. So it’s the likes of Timeform that are saying they’re all duff etc after giving them the chance.
The Derby is a race I look forward to every year because I want to see a genuine superstar emerge. At the moment, I’m not really seeing one anywhere. If it turns out it’s Golden Horn, that will be brilliant.
Hans Holbein … then got lucky to win at Chester.
In what way would you say he got lucky, Zarkava?
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