- This topic has 70 replies, 27 voices, and was last updated 15 years, 4 months ago by
.
- Posts
Menorah is very solid and likeable. Slick lepper, stays well, good turn of foot, finds for pressure. He should be there or thereabouts come March. The Champion is shaping up very nicely – hopefully we’ll see Hurricane Fly and Solwhit this week. Good thaw in the weather today so there’s every chance it will go ahead.
People were possibly expecting too much of Cue Card. That was only his third hurdling run and it was the first time he’s had questions asked of him. He will have learned a lot from it. I doubt they’ll persist with the Champion Hurdle aim now but he’ll be very hard to beat in either novice contest. If he was mine, I’d be looking more at the 2m5 race – his dam Wicked Crack was a thorough stayer and I think he would be a penalty kick in that race. Chances are he’ll end up in the Supreme but I just have a feeling that the longer race would suit him more.
I wouldn’t be interested in Silviniaco Conte’s chances in the Champion Hurdle after that. Maybe with a more forceful ride there he might have finished closer but I don’t think he has the gears for it. The Champion Hurdle on the Old Course is more of a test of speed than the Bula. He’s still a young inexperienced horse so maybe Nicholls might skip Cheltenham altogether and go to Aintree over the intermediate trip.
- Total Posts 17716
Menorah is very solid and likeable. Slick
lepper
, stays well, good turn of foot, finds for pressure. He should be there or thereabouts come March. The Champion is shaping up very nicely – hopefully we’ll see Hurricane Fly and Solwhit this week. Good thaw in the weather today so there’s every chance it will go ahead.
People were possibly expecting too much of Cue Card. That was only his third hurdling run and it was the first time he’s had questions asked of him. He will have learned a lot from it. I doubt they’ll persist with the Champion Hurdle aim now but he’ll be very hard to beat in either novice contest. If he was mine, I’d be looking more at the 2m5 race – his dam Wicked Crack was a thorough stayer and I think he would be a penalty kick in that race. Chances are he’ll end up in the Supreme but I just have a feeling that the longer race would suit him more.
I wouldn’t be interested in Silviniaco Conte’s chances in the Champion Hurdle after that. Maybe with a more forceful ride there he might have finished closer but I don’t think he has the gears for it. The Champion Hurdle on the Old Course is more of a test of speed than the Bula. He’s still a young inexperienced horse so maybe Nicholls might skip Cheltenham altogether and go to Aintree over the intermediate trip.
Good post,
BTW what does lepper mean? heard Barry Gerahty and Ruby Walsh say it today, I take it means leaper? why do they need a language of their own ffs.
- Total Posts 17716
I just had agood look at the race and to be honest I was more impressed by Menorah than I was watching the race as it a happened.
As far as Silviniaco Conte goes he got an absolutely shocking ride. He’s taken up at the right time but sit and wait for what? Istead of going for gold he sat and sat allowing Cue Card and Clerk’s Choise to cruise up into challenging positions.
As a couple of other posters pointed out he’s the horse with the stamina but they nmake no effort to use it.
Far be it for me to tell ajockey how to ride but huge mistake. Defintely cost him 2nd place but wouldn’t have beaten menorah no matter what.
As far as Cue Card goes I wouldn’t back him for the Supreme Novices with bad money. He really got exposed to day as no better than very good.
This may not make much sense to some but you can guarantee that the Supreme Hurdle will be a much better race than todays.
By that I am not downtalking Menorah or his ability. He didn’t beat this lot he trounced them but was ridden to beat what was in front of him. You could have fitted a few horses in between and he’d have still won as far.
Cue Card will find the pace in the Supreme will make things even tougher for him and he’s folded up so tamely here IMO he has no chance of fending of the likely challenges he’ll come up against Cheltenham.
Has to be the lay of the season at around 5/2.
IC,
As much as I am looking forward to seeing Solwhit and Hurricane Fly, I really cannot see them involved in the shake up come March. I think the form of the Punchestown hurdle is not really that good in all honesty. The proximity of Thousand Stars makes the race a little suspect IMO, I could not have Thousand Stars rated 163. I think the Champion Hurdle is between the horses across the water.
Fist,
You’re cracking me up! Cue Card runs his third race over hurdles against horses with a helluva lot more experience than him, and he is done improving, utter nonsense.
JohnJ
- Total Posts 17716
Not as much of a joker as you considering you suggested Hobbs was in cloud cuckoo land if he
thought
he could win a champion hurdle with Menorah.
JohnJ
Get a life and stop being so damn ignorant man.
The horse has won a steadily run Grade 2 against 2 wannabe’s and that’s a long long way off winning a Champion Hurdle.
The man himself said he is no more than hopeful and with such serious opposition that’s all he dare be.
Or maybe you think Cue Card is as good as Hurriucdane Fly or SC is as good as Binocular.
Menorah is clearly improving with every run and fast developing the profile of a Champion Hurdle winner.
In recent years, Khyber Kim, Binocular and Osana have all gone on to be placed in the Champion Hurdle after International glory, with Binocular improving on his second the following year.
It should also be noted that both Khyber Kim and Osana competed in the Greatwood Hurdle under big weights prior to their success in this race, with the Nigel Twiston-Davies horse completing the double and Osana running a respectable second, giving Sizing Europe 6lb.
Old favourite, Rooster Booster, also trained by Hobbs, completed the treble during the 2002-2003 season.
A note of caution, however. Anyone who thinks that Menorah is a certainty to confirm the form need only look at the previous renewals of the race.
Detroit City defeated Hardy Eustace by 1L in the International, but finished 15L behind that rival when flopping in the Champion Hurdle. The follwing year, Katchit appeared to have no chance of Champion Hurdle glory after being smashed 8L by Osana in December, only to lead that horse home in March.
In 2008 the race was switched to Ascot, where Binocular was ultra-impressive in beating Celestial Halo by over 4L. They would finish much closer in the two mile showpiece, with the Paul Niicholls-trained runner gaining some sort of revenge when pipping his old rival to second place behind Punjabi.
Silviniaco Conti is open to plenty of improvement between now and March. Champion Hurdle pace will suit him much better and remember Zaynar won the Ascot Hurdle at the start of last season before finishing third at The Festival. Paul Nicholls still considers him a Champion Hurdle prospect.
I backed Menorah for the Supreme last March and fancied him strongly when the market was initially released for the Greatwood. I changed my allegiance at the last minute, siding with Get Me Out Of Here, but still remember looking at the Champion Hurdle market and thinking what a big price he was.
You win some, you lose some.
In situations like this, you often find yourself inventing reasons for the horse to get beat come The Festival, knowing you will be kicking yourself if it wins, but Menorah will be very hard to keep out of the frame and it will take a very, very good horse to lower his colours. Of course, we potentially have a couple of those in Peddlers Cross and Hurricane Fly, and then there’s the little matter of current champion, Binocular, lurking in the shadows.
The Champion Hurdle should be a cracker. Let’s hope they all make it.
Get a life and stop being so damn ignorant man.
My dear fellow, if there anyone who is damn ignorant its your good self. You said that Hobbs was in cloud cuckoo land if he thought that Menorah could be aimed at a Champion Hurdle. This horse has improved the guts of 15lbs from his novice season, and I expect he will improve another 7-8lbs given his optimum conditions of good ground and a strong pace. This level of improvement will bring him into the region of the 173 that Binocular achieved in his blistering performance in last season’s CH.
I don’t expect you to understand this, because of your stupidity and inability to comprehend a decent well balanced difference in opinion to the arguments that you make. I expect you will just bellow out the usual Johnjo, AP, Nicky crap.
For what it’s worth I think Peddlers Cross is the best prospect for the Champion Hurdle. Hurricane Fly and Solwhit are the most over rated Irish Hurdlers I can remember, the proximity of Thousand Stars at the Punchestown festival would indicate this.
JohnJ
I think you’re underestimating Hurricane Fly’s run at Punchestown John.
He’d been on the easy list since the Morgiana and he was very keen in the early part of the race. When Dunguib came to the end of his tether after the second last he fell right back into Paul Townend’s lap. He lost about a length at a crucial stage of the race and had to come four or five wide around the bend. Russell had managed to slip the field on Solwhit and had six lengths in hand on Hurricane Fly turning in. HF only beat him a neck but he was going away at the end and IMO would have beat him a lot cosier had he got a better run after the second last.
I think it’s unlikely Solwhit will ever win a Champion Hurdle but he is a great yardstick. His Cheltenham running was all wrong because of his interupted preparation because of his illness. He never fails to run his race at Punchestown where he is four wins and a neck second from five runs.
The closeness of Thousand Stars is a bit of a concern but he has improved out of all recognition since moving to Closutton. He loves quick ground and a fast pace. He could just be one of those horses that keeps finding improvement.
The big issue with Hurricane Fly is whether he’ll line up or not. If he does, I reckon he might just have too much class for the rest of them.
IC,
I think HF is a high class horse, however it is difficult to get a firm handle on his form considering he hasn’t raced outside Ireland since coming over to Ireland from France. I know you could use Solwhit as a benchmark, but I don’t think beating the likes of Donnas Palm and Sublimity in bog like conditions on the bridle in December and January is top class form.
I also think that the last four renewals of the Champion Hurdle have not been that strong, Katchit, Sublimity and Pujabi were not out of the top drawer, although Binocular put in a very impressive performance last season. The novices coming through from last year look top notch, Menorah, Peddlers Cross and Cue Card have all achieved a rating above 160 and look like they have further improvement.
I think on balance the horses across the water are ahead of Hurricane Fly and the other Irish Horses, but of course, I could be totally incorrect.
JohnJ
While Menorah was impressive i wasn’t impressed with the runs of the main rivals.
SC knocked the first flight down…you cant afford to do that and imo knocked the stuffing out of him. The way the race was run the jockey had a no win situation. He couldn’t chase that pig in front as he would have cut his own throat and as a result the ride that should have been given could not be done in these circumstances.
Cue Card cant settle…he is too keen but still he is very young and wouldn’t right himself off.
Menorah was in trouble on the bed because Johnson got it stuck behind a wall of horses travelling the worst…the way he went on to win it i think the races fell apart and he just fell into the lead.
Certainly not going to be getting carried away with that. He has a chance in the Champion Hurdle but not as short as he is and imo will not win the Champion Hurdle of 2011
- Total Posts 17716
Impressed by the way he won, and surprised by his turn of foot (so was P Hobbs apparently), but it does look as though the 2nd & 3rd need further, and with the 4th & 6th coming off bad lto runs the form may not be all it first seems. Certainly wouldn’t see a top form Binocular (for instance) having any trouble bettering that form, particularly off a pace that looked no more than modest, (even a T/S of 140 is highly questionable, imo).
Good horse, but almost certainly flattered.- Total Posts 17716
How can a mistake at the first have "knocked the stuffing" out of Silviniaco Conti?
I agree with Fist that Fehily failed to make best use of his mount’s (relatively) abundant stamina, but it could be the case that he simply paid the price for four races in quick succession. In any case, it’s debatable whether or not he’d have finished much closer to a rather impressive Menorah.
I don’t agree with Fist, however, that Cue Card has suddenly fallen from his superstar to perch to being ‘just another goodun’. He’s a thrice-raced novice who’s been beaten by an older Supreme and Greatwood winner, and finished just in front of a horse who annihilated Relkeel winner Karabak only three weeks ago. The form is as solid as it gets, even allowing for the general lack of pace.
Menorah is certainly a Champion Hurdle contender – I still have him a good few lengths shy of Peddlers Cross though – and Cue Card is nailed on for the Supreme (unless either Zaidpour or Toubab turn out to be absolute monsters of course).
Although Cue Card was cantering all over them at one stage , Menorah’s Monksfield-like grit and determination proved decisive in the end. He looks an each way steal for the Champion Hurdle.
Joe Tizzard looked stunned, if not shell shocked, when Menorah went past Cue Card so easily. Maybe the extra furlong and strong pace caught him out. He did stay on at the end, which may have offered some comfort to his connections, but he is patently not ready yet to compete with his elders in the Champion Hurdle. The 2 mile novice would seem the more obvious choice at this stage.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Nice win by Menorah but it was a muddling race really and not convinced that second or third were suited by the way it unfolded.
I would like to see Cue Card aimed at the Neptune – he’ll get done for toe by something over 2m. Silviniaco Conti could still run well in a Champion off a very strong pace but needs a bit more cut perhaps – he was giving 4lb which seems a harsh condition against last season’s champion novice.
It was a great shame there was no yardstick from last season’s Champion in the race.
"Menorah was in trouble on the bed because Johnson got it stuck…"
I gotta watch that race again, amazing the things one misses first time around.
Actually, I thought Menorah was very impressive – from looking like he was struggling to putting the race to bed
in strides.OK, maybe they fell in a hole a bit, but I wouldn’t like to state that categorically.
Cue Card came out with great credit for me. Nothing wrong with his head carriage, he just hadn’t been under the pump before. He battled on well. Now, does he require further already? Hmm, I agree with the others that the 2m 4f option would be better for him, but I can definitely see him being in the frame for the Supreme, but as others have mentioned, you wouldn’t be confident a few won’t come out of the woodwork to beat him.
Silviniaco needs 2 and a half miles at least…I’d pop him in the 3 miler at Chelters.
Peddlers Cross is the interesting one still….he seems so unexposed…and adaptable…
Zip
- Total Posts 17716
Get a life and stop being so damn ignorant man.
My dear fellow, if there anyone who is damn ignorant its your good self. You said that Hobbs was in cloud cuckoo land if he thought that Menorah could be aimed at a Champion Hurdle. This horse has improved the guts of 15lbs from his novice season, and I expect he will improve another 7-8lbs given his optimum conditions of good ground and a strong pace. This level of improvement will bring him into the region of the 173 that Binocular achieved in his blistering performance in last season’s CH.
I don’t expect you to understand this, because of your stupidity and inability to comprehend a decent well balanced difference in opinion to the arguments that you make. I expect you will just bellow out the usual Johnjo, AP, Nicky crap.
For what it’s worth I think Peddlers Cross is the best prospect for the Champion Hurdle. Hurricane Fly and Solwhit are the most over rated Irish Hurdlers I can remember, the proximity of Thousand Stars at the Punchestown festival would indicate this.
JohnJ
Good man JJ would hate you start pulling your punches
It’s not a crime to be wrong but even after his win at Cheltenham he has still to do it. We assume he is now Champion Hurdle class after beating horses we have no idea how good they are.
He was impressive I give you that but the way you are rattling on you would think he’d already won the Champion Hurdle so calm your knickers.
Was he impressive because he’s brilliant or is Cue Card simply not the horse people thought he might be?
The time of the race wasn’t anything exceptional and that worries me if not you. Cue Card is cantering, Menorah is being niggle but the when Tizzard says go within strides nothing. By that time SC was a beaten horse. While Menorah has shot past Cue Card has failed to put any distance whatsover between himself and that same beaten horse. Perhaps that flattered Menorah somewhat?
I think at this time Cue Card the same type of horse as Sublimty turned out to be and come March with the guaranteed strong pace he won’t see the trip out well enough to win.
He’s you young and that could change but it may take another year of developing before we see the best of Cue Card if we haven’t already. I am not talking about next years race quite yet when I talk about the horse.
Colin Tizzard is obviously concerened that might be the case so he is letting him down to give him a chance to strengthen up which is sensible but I doubt if he can change him that much in 2-3 months.
Definatly one to avoid at the festival IMVHO.
The Champion Hurdle. Menorah Binoclar Hurricane Fly Pedllar’s Cross, Solwhit, Dunguib and Kyber King could all win and at least 4 of them won’t be placed. Could Menorah be one of them. You can bet your life is they all turn up fit and well he could.
Wish I could swear Menorah is defintely a Champion Hurdle but I’m afraid I don’t have your confidence just yet.
Not that I think it makes an awful lot of difference but don’t forget he was getting 4lbs from SC and beat him only 4 1/2 lengths.
in strides.- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.