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I’m hoping Bobby comes in with another of his cracking rundowns, I’m
not quite in that league, but I don’t want to leave it much longer
before putting up one of my favourites AFFAIRE D’HONNEUR.He’s already dropped down to a best priced 6/1 within a day of the
prices being available. He really caught my eye in his first race
in the UK, after being bought in France, when going down by 1 length
to Zulu Oscar at Kempton, having let ZO get the march on him. I fancied
him strongly for the Betfair Hurdle, but he more or less threw the race
away at the start, before coming through the whole field in the last 2
furlongs to finish a strongly running on 4th.I had some ante posts on him in both the Supreme and Neptune, but he would
have had to win well at Newbury for him to take his place in them. Harry
Whittington said after that race that Cheltenham was more or less off the
card, and The Imperial Cup was the target. He still has an entry in the
County Hurdle, I’ll maybe have a covering few quid on that in case, but
it seems unlikely that he’ll head there.I would love Rayvin Black to take his place in this, he’s on a mark of
149 and that would put AD on a really good weight off 133. I’m not
convinced this is a target for RB.I think a lot of AD, and I tried to have a decent bet on him with Boylesports,
who are still 6/1, but they wouldn’t take the bet….even when I halved it!
Fortunately Bet365 did. Willie Hill and Ladbrokes also go 6/1.If Willie Mullins sends Clondaw Warrier over, he would be a big threat but I
think he might just head straight to Cheltenham.Alee Bleue is overpriced at 16/1 with Willie Hill, he looked like an improving
horse when he won well at Taunton last time. Again the problem is that he is
entered in 3 handicaps at The Festival and I don’t know what his intentions are.That’s the problem with a great many in the field, many of them will head straight
to Cheltenham. The one thing for certain is that this has been the target for
AFFAIRE D’HONNEURsince his run in the Betfair Hurdle. If this
race cuts up a lot, AD won’t be 6/1.Best of luck
Affaire D’Honneur is too short for me. He was certainly one to take the eye last time but he has yet to win a race and could easily be a silly price on Saturday.
I have gone for Gwafa, who seems to be improving fast for Paul Webber and I know the trainer is quite hopeful that he’ll be a smart hurdler. 16/1 seemed OK value. I have also selected For Good Measure at 10/1, as I feel he may well be in the mix as long as there is soft ground.
No bonus at the moment for winning this race and following up at Cheltenham, so the field may thin down as trainers save their horses for the Festival.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
As you know Big G AD was well backed my my good self at Newbury but at that price I shall not be re investing!!
The three I fancy are
SIROP DE MENTHE 33/1
KNOCKGRAFFON 25/1
CLAYTON 18/1
Sirop has only gone up two pounds for finishing seond to Ravin Black who has gone up twelve!!
Knockgraffon could be anything and may be Dan Skelton has targeted this rather than go to Cheltenham.
Clayton could be a Gary Moore handicapper who has sneaked in at the bottom of the handicap and if he thought he was going to be inconvenienced by being one pund wrong he wouldn’t run him.
All speculative but good prices are often speculation!!
I’ll be backing up my 25/1 Betfair Hurdle winner Agrapart with another 25/1 shot…well, I got 25’s yesterday when they priced up and that’s gone and there’s just the odd bit of 20/1 left.
Yes, I’m on last years winner Ebony Express…looks to have been laid out for another tilt…I know Rayvin Black has shown tremendous improvement this year while mine has shown nothing…
The result of that though is Ebony Express is 19lbs better off with the horse he beat in it last year…when one was 14’s and one 25’s it wasn’t a difficult decision which one to back…a lb lower than last year I’m expecting a decent run for my money!
I do remember that Raymo, I think we were pretty unlucky that day, but
that’s racing for ya.All three of yours look interesting, I just wonder who will still be
standing come the final declarations.I really hope Rayvin Black stays in, I think that AFFAIRE D’HONNEUR
is on a great racing weight at 10-10.I know 6/1 looks a bit skinny in a handicap like the Imperial, and as
you know, I’m a bit like yourself that looks for something at good odds,
but I really think this horse is going to turn out to be a class above
a handicapper. I’ve put my money where my mouth is, more than I normally
do, so I’m hoping I’ve got this right….time will tell
Good opening post G
All 3 of my early fancies mentioned, including Ebony Express & Sirop De Menthe.
Main fancy though would be Clayton, and I’ve had a small bet at 18’s with Bet365, though not a race I’d normally go mad in. Might add one of the other 2 as the week goes on, but I’m tempted to wait till final decs.
GL
Looks like all the five we have mentioned are going to run!!
That is a touch in itself!!
At least we are all on at fancy prices!! Good Luck Guys!!
Really like Rayvin Black. Loves Sandown, heavy going and stays on the same mark despite his last win. Could be a handicap snip on his The New One run.
Ebony Express to retain his crown for me. The horses in behind him last year have gone on to bigger and better things, Thistlecrack and Camping Ground to name 2 but with how Newland tends to operate i think this could well have been the plan since last year for EE. Back down to a lb below last years mark i think he’ll be hard beat and will do for me.
Clayton’s very interesting off his mark of 122 too considering his flat mark is 100 but i think his inexperience over hurdles will be to his detriment and he could improve for the experience and is one for further down the line.I m a newcomer to this site racegoer and punter for 50 years
I’m imperial cup backed ebony express 12/1 good value last year winner off similar mark good luck allI m a newcomer to this site racegoer and punter for 50 years
I’m imperial cup backed ebony express 12/1 good value last year winner off similar mark good luck allWelcome to the forum Racingorchid. He’s got every chance, considering this
will have been his target since winning it last year He’s well weighted
running off a mark of 130, 1lb better than last year when he beat Rayvin
Black. Add to that that he gave Rayvin Black 5lbs and now he receives a
stonking 1st 5lbs from that one this time around. If Newland has got him
back to some kind of form, he’s in with a shout.Best of luck
Welcome Racingorchid – you couldn’t have started with a trickier race, A host of unexposed horses here, many of whom will go on the ground.
I’ll settle for Solstice Star, purely on a value basis
Good luck all
What about PRAIRIE TOWN Joe ?
Ten pound better off with Solstice Star for 5 and a 1/2 lengths40/1 maybe a big price !!
40s does look big, Raymo, though trainer believes he wants better ground. I just think Solstice Star might still be improving, which he’ll have to be to win this. But I might have a wee saver on that Prairie Town – he does look too big at 40 and has won on the ground. Thanks, my friend
By the looks of some of the prices everyone has got on this race wish I’d looked ante-post!!!
Two I particularly like at current prices are For Good Measure @ 6/1 and Knockgraffon @ 14/1, with Allee Bleue @ 10/1 and Affaire D’honneur 9/2 savers.
Value Is EverythingFor Good Measure would be in my top three however I have gone for a small stakes EW on Spice Fair. A useful mid 80’s handicapper on the flat and now getting the hang of hurdling. He stays 2m4f so a strongly run race on soft ground over 2m could bring his stamina in to play and he might sneak a place at 33/1. The rank outsider Sea Wall will also carry minimal stakes as he can travel very well at times so I will probably do just a place only on BF.
Good luck all
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