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What has he proven beyond he could beat horses that were not Grade 1 standard in a novice chase? Please elaborate. What are you actually saying?
The thing he hasn’t proven (yet) is can he produce a repeat of Kempton only in open G1 company and also how will he cope with the undulations of the Gold Cup course (bearing in mind he has raced pretty much exclusively at Auteuil and one run at Kempton).
For me time is an indicator to the talent/engine he has – had he run in the King George instead of the Kauto Star, tactically I really couldn’t envisage him being ridden any differently. He is a naturally strong travelling type and at Kempton he was at times looking like the jockey only just about had him under restraint.
With that type of run style, I do worry about him going up in trip though (if anything coming back in trip might be more suitable) and don’t forget that the Grand Steeple-Chase de Paris is actually 3m6f and likely to be run on heavyish ground so not exactly playing to his main weapon….high cruising speed.
I certainly think kempton won’t be a problem but have my doubts about Cheltenham. He’ll not outjump galophin and over the undulations I’m not sure he has the stamina to win. Still a hugely exciting horse. I hope he fulfils his potential.
I should have said earlier that if they are serious about the Gold Cup it seems strange that they avoided taking in a bit of match practice in what was a pretty ordinary Turners. Certainly not a positive in my book.
It’s not just the undulations of Cheltenham, it’s a stiffer jumping test, and if he made the mistake he made at Kempton (under no real pressure), I’m not so sure he would get away with it.
Stilvi, you keep saying these horses weren’t Grade 1 standard but Hermes Allen had been a Grade 1 winner over hurdles and prior to Boxing Day had won a Grade 2 over fences. Correct me if I’m wrong but it’s the first Grade 1 of the season for novices, so if the likes of Hermes Allen weren’t potentially Grade 1, who’s going to actually run in this race? To me his performance on the day was just wow and the clock backs that up. Can we not jump the gun and say he won’t like Cheltenham, he won’t like this and he won’t like that et al. We don’t know. Seem to remember a lot of people on here questioning what Galopin had done prior to his first Gold Cup and look how that’s turned out.
His main aim is the King George with a possible Cheltenham run beforehand. The owners possibly do not consider the Gold Cup the be all and end all.
The more I know the less I understand.
His French style of fencing (where they brush through fences rather than jump over them) leaves little room for error when you are facing the less forgiving English fences. Although plenty have made the transition very well.
I have no doubt that he will be a much slicker jumper (through the air) than GDC and potentially could gain a length or so at most fences when he meets them on the right stride but as we all well know, many a great 3m chaser has been found out at Cheltenham over the Gold Cup trip….how will his style of jumping hold up when the petrol gauge is closing in on ‘E’ and tiredness creeps in.
If he wins the Grand Steeple-Chase de Paris, I think that will pretty much guarantee a Gold Cup campaign will follow after, likely taking in the King George en route (there could always use Trials Day to get some Cheltenham match practice in) – but if the Grand Steeple finds out any stamina frailties then who knows…..we could end up seeing him in the Ryanair instead…
Personally, if he doesn’t stay past 3m, then I would love to see him drop back in the QMCC and try to do a One Man.
Of course the other option is we don’t see him at Cheltenham at all. I would make that favourite.
Hermes Allen ran away with a Challow Hurdle on bottomless ground where very few coped with the conditions. He then didn’t live up to expectations on quicker ground at either Cheltenham or Aintree. Yes, he beat Nickle Back in a weak Grade 2, but that version of Nickle Back was nothing like the Sandown version. We will never know, but I doubt he was ever going to find a Grade 1 over fences. He hadn’t got the pace associated with the top level, and his jumping was nothing special. Do you honestly believe that Kilbeg King and the rest are Grade 1 horses?
Racing revolves around speculation, it’s not jumping the gun to consider whether Il Est Francais might find jumping at Cheltenham a much more difficult proposition than Kempton. There’s nothing left field about that idea.
No french expert, but most of the others look as if they are barely Grade 3 standard. Looks like a £90,000+ stroll.
oh dear
hope he’s okay
Wouldn’t get Gaelic Warrior off the bridleBlackbeard to conquer the World
Stopped as if shot – either badly undercooked or something wrong, French Gold Cup must be a major doubt now.
Too bad to be true, bit like Gaelic Warrior at Leopardstown. Obs trying to teach him to settle, like Mulins with GDC. But something to prove now; as Stilvi said, the bare Kempton form didn’t merit the hyperbole.
More proof (if any was actually needed) that they are not machines and can have off days (fingers crossed it was just that).
If that had anything to do with fitness it would be a very poor piece of training.
Relatively speaking quite a drift 1/10-1/5 with the second being supported.
An extra mile to go in the French Gold Cup compared to today’s trip – had my doubts about that prior to this run and this really hasn’t helped.
They might also be worried about the trip as the tactics were changed based on the jockey’s following comments:
“I was happy enough throughout the race, I wanted to change tactics, drop in and get him settled looking towards the Grand Steep”.
“I didn’t think we went very fast and he did a big jump at the River so I let him go on, without going too fast.
“I was happy until the last bend and then I felt him really empty, there was nothing left. I was going to pull up but I popped the last. He was walking.”
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