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Inspired – as I so often am of late – by TTC and CAS – I have decided to launch his thread.
If it’s in the wrong folder, or replicated elsewhere, feel free to tell me to shut up.
(And I shall respond: “How rude!” ignore you and carry on).
My inaugural beast is Point Lonsdale, a best-priced 10/1 for the 2022 2,000 Guineas on the strength of wins in a Maiden at The Curragh, the Listed Chesham Stakes at Royal Ascot and the Group 3 Tyros Stakes at Leopardstown, all at 7f.
He apparently has an OR of 108, he’s by a Derby winner who was third in the 2,000 Guineas and, if he’s quick enough (never mind good enough) to win the Guineas I’ll go the foot of our stairs (err, well I would if I had any stairs, that is).
Plus he’s a similar price to what El Gran Senor was, but the similarity ends there seeing as the latter had just won the best Dewhurst in yonks while idling like the lazy (but brilliant) git he was.
Next up is Inspiral, 12/1 best for the 2022 1,000 Guineas, having won a Newmarket Maiden and the Listed Star Stakes at Sandown Park, again both at 7f.
Her OR is 104 apparently and she’s by the great (a word I seldom use so, when I do I mean it) Frankel, but seeing as I once got 20/1 a subsequent 1,000 Guineas winner after she’d won a Group 1, I’m sneering like a big sneery thing at the 12s.
More cantankerous nonsense to follow in due course….
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Indeed. “The best horse in the history of racing” if I recall correctly”.
BUY THE SUN
Fair play to the good Captain for voicing a strong opinion – sitting on the fence and aftertiming are my twin bete noirs, so it’s good to see.
Suffice to say that, on what I’ve seen so far, I think he’s wrong with a Capital W.
Time will tell and, at the odds, I will look ten times as stupid if Point Lonsdale wins the Guineas than the Captain will if it doesn’t.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"“sitting on the fence and aftertiming are my twin bete noirs”
Surely they should be referred to as bet noirs, Ian?
Very good, sir (or madam – once can never be too careful nowadays).
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Tempted to add River Ebro to this thread – so I will. Looks a bit of a nutter, has a strike rate of 3/7, and the trainer says he won’t stay a mile. 20/1 for the Guineas in 10 months looks great value right enough.
BUY THE SUN
Additions welcomed – we’re not at home to Mr Sitting On The Fence on this thread.
If you’re too terrified of being wrong to ever speak out you can’t ever be right!
Nice one, TTC.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I am a little surprised by the price of The Acropolis for the Guineas.
Following the advice of someone on the forum (apologies, I have forgotten who it was), I had a speculative bet on him for the Guineas before his first race. I got an enhanced price to 75/1.
He has raced five times, winning a maiden at Listowel on his second start. In his three subsequent races, he has been well beaten in three Group 2s.
Does he really deserve to be as short as 50/1 after 4 defeats out of 5? I doubt he would be that price if he was trained anywhere other than Ballydoyle.
Good stuff, CAS – thank you.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I’m happy with the prices I took for Point Lonsdale after Royal Ascot.
Reach for the Moon won a half decent race today to boost the form.Charles Darwin to conquer the World
Just had to look in about five folders to find my own thread!
Not to worry.
Reach For The Moon is now a top-priced 14/1 for The Derby after simply confirming Royal Ascot placings with Great Max in the Solario Stakes at Sandown Park.
I like the Solario – To-Agori-Mou, Oh So Sharp and Kingman are previous winners.
But Reach For The Moon ain’t none of them and 14/1 is shocking.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Reach for the Moon isn’t any of them true. But none of the others on the Ante Post list are either apart from Point Lonsdale imo and time is ticking on the season for one to appear.
We do have the end of season 2y/o championship races to play and the will they won’t they train on. Who will show improvement from 2 – 3 etcCharles Darwin to conquer the World
Exactly, Nathan, and that’s why these prices are absurd.
Many Derby winners don’t identify themselves as potential winners until the spring of their 3yo campaign.
Point Lonsdale, who won at The Curragh today, looks better than anything that ran in the Champagne Stakes at Goodwood on a line through Acropolis, but his SP of 1/6 tells you all you need to know about how strong the opposition was expected to be and I couldn’t rate him above 113 on that.
It would need to be 120 plus to get me interested in him and 8/1 for the 2,000 Guineas and The Derby looks very short to me.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"It’s still only August yet Point Lonsdale is already a top-priced 15/2 for the 2,000 Guineas after a bloodless victory at 1/6 at The Curragh.
Equally absurd is the 8/1 for The Derby.
I got the same price about his sire AFTER he had annihilated Free Eagle at Leopardstown in the September of his 2yo campaign.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I’m expecting a productive week for the most miserable thread in racing.
May Hill Stakes – featuring the ludicrously priced Inspiral and her OR of 104.
The Flying Childers – featuring absolutely nothing that would stay a mile in a horse box.
The Champagne Stakes – Lusail OR 113, July Stakes and Gimcrack winner, sets a decent standard to be fair. Doesn’t look quite a miler but is already a winner at 7f. What hammers him would have to be decent. Reach For The Moon has a beautiful old-fashioned middle distance pedigree (Sea The Stars out of a Sadler’s Wells mare) and probably needs at least a mile already.
And last and definitely least (because it’s Ireland where if you’re cruel to a horse you’re more likely to be elected Pope than warned off) there’s the 1m Group 2 Australia won. Old Pointless holds an entry but is likely to wait to get well and truly shown up for the slow old front-running boat he is at The Curragh in the National Stakes over 7f.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Inspiral is currently a best-priced 1/2 for the May Hill and 12/1 and 16/1 for the 1,000 Guineas and The Oaks respectively.
If she wins expect those odds to shorten to 8/1 and 10/1 and if she wins easily to God knows what.
But what will she have beaten?
Though she faces six previous winners – four of them last time out – she has 7lb plus in hand on OR, despite her own OR of 104 being nothing to write home about (115+ is potential Classic-winning standard for fillies in my book).
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"
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