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A while ago I decided upon my betting strategy to do simply what works for me.
Waiting – to wait for the right opportunity to bet only when I genuinely think a horse will win AND it is the correct price regarding what I consider value and therefore giving the appropriate reward to my profit column.
However I’m having the age old problem with discipline.
Examples at Goodwood – Masterofthehorse : I backed this horse because his price was too big. Ok enough if you merely seek value but that isn’t how I do things. I didn’t think the horse would win but his price was bigger than it should’ve been at 5/1 so I backed him. Then there was Ghanaati : I thought Rip was the best horse on form but with him being a bit of a character I decided I couldn’t back him. Fine, leave well alone then, but no! As I wouldn’t back Rip I decided to back Ghanaati as an alternative.
I realise punter after punter has the discipline problem but is is there anyone out there that has an remedy? Can anyone recommend anything that will help to stop me betting when I shouldn’t?
At the moment my profit / loss column is looking Ok there is no cause for alarm but there might be if I don’t stick to doing what I do best.
Thanks in advance will look forward to replies.
Why do you feel they were bad bets now but they were good bets at the time? If you can’t explain the rationale behind the bet, then you shouldn’t be having it. If you are still happy the rationale for them was spot on, they were probably sound enough bets in spite of them getting beat.
You have a disconnect between how you are as a gambler and how the "experts" tell us we should gamble, Ian. Until you get that sorted out you’ll always have problems with discipline imo.
Ian I was/am having a similar problem. I took a break and went away for a few weeks. When I came back I started looking at my records and realised that the small action bets were denting my problems.
I am not a huge action junky but going weeks without action was//is proving my weakness. When you have a big meeting the urge is greater, I find that a small trixie or each way double can often provide me with the action until a real opportunity comes along.
I actually like one in the first tomorrow at Goodwood, but the overnight rain and the possibility of non runners means I might not get the price I need
Why do you feel they were bad bets now but they were good bets at the time? If you can’t explain the rationale behind the bet, then you shouldn’t be having it. If you are still happy the rationale for them was spot on, they were probably sound enough bets in spite of them getting beat.
I feel they were bad bets because I didn’t really believe either horse would win. They were bets for the sake of having a bet.
You have a disconnect between how you are as a gambler and how the "experts" tell us we should gamble, Ian. Until you get that sorted out you’ll always have problems with discipline imo.
Can you expand on this a little bit please? Not really sure what you mean.
From what you’ve written your more of an action punter Ian. Your trying to bet like a patient punter and it doesn’t suit you, hence the discipline problems.
I think anyone making money out of gambling, gambles in way that suits them. We’re all individuals and selective betting on high quality racing that 90% of the "experts" seem to constantly throw at us simply doesn’t suit the style of many gamblers.
Adapt your betting to your own style and your discipline problems will be solved imo.
Hi Ian,
It sounds to me as if in both cases you allowed subjectivity to creep in, as opposed to objectivity. The former can be influenced by a variety of reasons e.g. how you feel when you woke up that day, past experiences, ‘gut feeling’, intuition, whether the sun is shining etc.etc.etc.
You mention " he’s a bit of a character". On what basis? Your or someone else’s knowledge?
You began by taking an objective and purely business-headed view of the odds/value but then brought more personal data into the equation. Mistake.
Stick to the pure mathematics, eradicate the ifs and buts, the feelings and the predictions about temperament, what might happen in the race. It’s great when a horse runs exactly how you imagined but imagination is fantasy and your hard-earned cash is your reality.
Good luck from someone who’s never followed a word of the above advice and has little to show for it.
Ken- Total Posts 17716
Ian
Learn to trust your instinct!
At the very least, you’d have saved 2 bad bets – without even thinking.Have you thought about being more specific with your betting? What I mean is go thru your records and see the areas where you make the most profit, consistenly, over a period of time.
There is too much racing and it is very easy to bet in more races than you should, this would be eliminated if you only target your profitable areas. This would also help with your discipline, as you will only bet in your targeted areas and avoid the rest.
My betting and profitability increased when I stuck to what my records prove that I am good at, I dont even look anymore at the areas which I decided to drop, hence no more bets on horses that I really shouldn’t be betting on.
MY BELIEVE IS THAT IF YOU THINK THE HORSE IS A BAD BET YOU TURN YOUR BACK ON IT ,SO WHAT IF IT WINS I WOULD NEVER BACK A HORSE THAT IS A BAD BET .IT WOULD NOT BOTHER ME IF IT WINS .THERE IS ALWAY’S NEXT DAY .BEST OF LUCK
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