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Hungerford 2009

Home Forums Big Races – Discussion Hungerford 2009

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  • #12390
    tenbob
    Member
    • Total Posts 156

    my points system

    132 balthazaars gift
    124 evasive
    122 plum pudding
    119 prime defender
    117 gallagher
    115 welsh emperor
    113 al muheer
    113 arabian gleam
    108 express wish
    107 tariq
    104 border patrol
    104 regal parade
    100 al qasi
    96 palace moon

    will back balthazaars ew

    #243940
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 29189

    Am struggling to work this race and the Geof Freer out with so many possible non-runners.

    Understand from some pals in Elite that Border Patrol is highly unlikely to run. The "will only run if NO significant rain" in the Racing Post is wrong. He needs rain to run, though I personally disagree with that and would fancy him strongly if taking part even on good-firm.

    If Welsh Emporer (a front runner who likes soft) takes part would reduce Evasive’s chance. Like to see the Godolphin recruit lead. Also, the pace may be slower if Tate’s charge is absent, reducing the chance of hold up horses.

    Yes Al Qasi likes soft but why does Tariq need rain?

    Value Is Everything
    #243971
    blackfingernail
    Member
    • Total Posts 108

    i’ve backed border patrol 3 times this year and he looks a cracking horse. if he does run i’ll have a little bit on him. the favourite has had two very hard tasks this year and he must be somewhere near. if he’s out the first three i’ll buy a hat and eat it. and with the boys in blue being in fantastic form it sets up a good race.

    #243999
    Gingertipster
    Participant
    • Total Posts 29189

    At first glance the Hungerford looked competitive. So many horses in with an "each way" chance. However, they do seem on the whole exposed or out of form. The two exceptions being Evasive and Border Patrol.

    Not sure whether Bin Surror is as good a trainer as Sir Michael, but Evasive should be able to improve at this trip. Barely gets home over a mile and with Godolphin in such cracking form, backed him at 9/4.

    Border Patrol has a bit of a round action but it is not that pronounced. Trainer’s wishing for a soft surface seems to be more to do with looking after the horse; rather than not acting on fast ground. The watering should be enough to take any jar out of the ground. Taken 9/2.

    Of the others Balthazar’s Gift deserves a group win, may be too exposed to win. A market move for Tariq might be significant, trainer has had a poor year, small horse who may not have trained on.

    Value Is Everything
    #244025
    Blunkett
    Participant
    • Total Posts 416

    Looks like Border Patrol is out, and connections will check the weather at York next week.

    I’ll be sticking the house on him if it pisses down.

    #244028
    Gerald
    Member
    • Total Posts 4293

    Yes, I posted a couple of weeks ago that I had seen three performances earlier this season that shouted out Ayr Gold Cup to me. Two were by Regal Parade, and the other by Border Patrol. Looks like he is too good for the race now.

    #244043
    Cav
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4825

    Evasive deserves to be at the front of the market but there is absolutely no juice in the current price of 5/4. His 2yo form was nothing special and although his 2 runs at 3 have been good he’s still been beaten a combined 8 lengths in them. He takes on older horses for the first time also. I think the current Godolphin and Frankie form are over factored.

    I like Arabian Gleam in this. In the John of Gaunt he conceded weight to Main Aim, Beacon Lodge, and Asset who have all franked that form nicely. 7 furlongs is his best trip, he goes well at Newbury and fast ground should pose no problems.

    Evasive has the best form in the race but the price differential is out of line. 10/1 Arabian Gleam looks decent.

    #244051
    Colin Little
    Member
    • Total Posts 338

    I’ve followed Arabian Gleam for ages, without necessarily backing him. Imo he’s a specialist 7f horse, who doesn’t really get a mile. He has the inherent class to be competitive in a race like this. I feel that ideally softer ground would have been better for him.

    I was thinking that this may just be a prep for him, but with the non-runners out, bar Evasive, he’s now the class horse in the field. In a slightly negative, selfish way, I was hoping he didn’t show too much promise today. The idea being, it would make him a more backable price for "his" race, which comes up at Doncaster in a few weeks, which I’m guessing has been the target all year. My plan was to back him then, but if he wins this he won’t be much of a price.

    #244093
    RedRiot
    Member
    • Total Posts 870

    Finjaan’s form has got stronger after today, had 1st and 2nd behind him in the Betfair Cup, seems like he is one of the horses who has came out very well after the Guineas.

    He will be worth following imho.

    #244094
    Zarkava
    Participant
    • Total Posts 4691

    Evasive’s performance today puts the 3 horses ahead of him in the St. James’ miles behind the older horses and bear in mind the Guineas runner-up was one of those 3…

    #244292
    Peruvian Chief
    Member
    • Total Posts 1931

    Thats of course if you think Evasive ran to form on saturday, which he clearly didn’t.

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