August 14, 2009 at 21:38 #12390tenbobMember
- Total Posts 156
my points system
132 balthazaars gift
122 plum pudding
119 prime defender
115 welsh emperor
113 al muheer
113 arabian gleam
108 express wish
104 border patrol
104 regal parade
100 al qasi
96 palace moon
will back balthazaars ewAugust 14, 2009 at 23:20 #243940GingertipsterParticipant
- Total Posts 29189
Am struggling to work this race and the Geof Freer out with so many possible non-runners.
Understand from some pals in Elite that Border Patrol is highly unlikely to run. The "will only run if NO significant rain" in the Racing Post is wrong. He needs rain to run, though I personally disagree with that and would fancy him strongly if taking part even on good-firm.
If Welsh Emporer (a front runner who likes soft) takes part would reduce Evasive’s chance. Like to see the Godolphin recruit lead. Also, the pace may be slower if Tate’s charge is absent, reducing the chance of hold up horses.
Yes Al Qasi likes soft but why does Tariq need rain?Value Is EverythingAugust 15, 2009 at 02:56 #243971blackfingernailMember
- Total Posts 108
i’ve backed border patrol 3 times this year and he looks a cracking horse. if he does run i’ll have a little bit on him. the favourite has had two very hard tasks this year and he must be somewhere near. if he’s out the first three i’ll buy a hat and eat it. and with the boys in blue being in fantastic form it sets up a good race.August 15, 2009 at 11:46 #243999GingertipsterParticipant
- Total Posts 29189
At first glance the Hungerford looked competitive. So many horses in with an "each way" chance. However, they do seem on the whole exposed or out of form. The two exceptions being Evasive and Border Patrol.
Not sure whether Bin Surror is as good a trainer as Sir Michael, but Evasive should be able to improve at this trip. Barely gets home over a mile and with Godolphin in such cracking form, backed him at 9/4.
Border Patrol has a bit of a round action but it is not that pronounced. Trainer’s wishing for a soft surface seems to be more to do with looking after the horse; rather than not acting on fast ground. The watering should be enough to take any jar out of the ground. Taken 9/2.
Of the others Balthazar’s Gift deserves a group win, may be too exposed to win. A market move for Tariq might be significant, trainer has had a poor year, small horse who may not have trained on.Value Is EverythingAugust 15, 2009 at 13:55 #244025BlunkettParticipant
- Total Posts 416
Looks like Border Patrol is out, and connections will check the weather at York next week.
I’ll be sticking the house on him if it pisses down.August 15, 2009 at 14:27 #244028GeraldMember
- Total Posts 4293
Yes, I posted a couple of weeks ago that I had seen three performances earlier this season that shouted out Ayr Gold Cup to me. Two were by Regal Parade, and the other by Border Patrol. Looks like he is too good for the race now.August 15, 2009 at 16:21 #244043CavParticipant
- Total Posts 4825
Evasive deserves to be at the front of the market but there is absolutely no juice in the current price of 5/4. His 2yo form was nothing special and although his 2 runs at 3 have been good he’s still been beaten a combined 8 lengths in them. He takes on older horses for the first time also. I think the current Godolphin and Frankie form are over factored.
I like Arabian Gleam in this. In the John of Gaunt he conceded weight to Main Aim, Beacon Lodge, and Asset who have all franked that form nicely. 7 furlongs is his best trip, he goes well at Newbury and fast ground should pose no problems.
Evasive has the best form in the race but the price differential is out of line. 10/1 Arabian Gleam looks decent.August 15, 2009 at 16:58 #244051Colin LittleMember
- Total Posts 338
I’ve followed Arabian Gleam for ages, without necessarily backing him. Imo he’s a specialist 7f horse, who doesn’t really get a mile. He has the inherent class to be competitive in a race like this. I feel that ideally softer ground would have been better for him.
I was thinking that this may just be a prep for him, but with the non-runners out, bar Evasive, he’s now the class horse in the field. In a slightly negative, selfish way, I was hoping he didn’t show too much promise today. The idea being, it would make him a more backable price for "his" race, which comes up at Doncaster in a few weeks, which I’m guessing has been the target all year. My plan was to back him then, but if he wins this he won’t be much of a price.August 16, 2009 at 01:22 #244093RedRiotMember
- Total Posts 870
Finjaan’s form has got stronger after today, had 1st and 2nd behind him in the Betfair Cup, seems like he is one of the horses who has came out very well after the Guineas.
He will be worth following imho.August 16, 2009 at 01:27 #244094ZarkavaParticipant
- Total Posts 4691
Evasive’s performance today puts the 3 horses ahead of him in the St. James’ miles behind the older horses and bear in mind the Guineas runner-up was one of those 3…August 17, 2009 at 13:19 #244292Peruvian ChiefMember
- Total Posts 1931
Thats of course if you think Evasive ran to form on saturday, which he clearly didn’t.
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