- This topic has 35 replies, 10 voices, and was last updated 8 years, 8 months ago by
.
- Posts
My 100% book for soft ground:
Librisa Breeze 100/30, Nathra 6/1, Breton Rock 15/2, Kaspersky 15/2, Massaat 8/1, Daban 10/1, Sir Dancealot 13/1, Spangled 22/1, Mix And Mingle 25/1, Ibn Malik 80/1, Poet’s Vanity 125/1.I’ve backed Nathra @ 7.8/1, Breton Rock 9.5/1, Massaat 12/1 and Sir Dancealot 16.5/1 with a saver on Kaspersky 9/1 and laid Librisa Breeze 2.45/1.
Bascally, backed the four horses at a combined price of 15/8 that I believe have a fair 5/4 chance of winning, saved on a 9/1 shot I believe has a fair 15/2 chance and laid at 2.45/1 something I believe is a fair 100/30.
Value Is EverythingI’m a big fan of LIBRISA BREEZE Ginger. I put him up in the Diamond
Jubilee and the Lennox Stakes recently and I think he was unlucky not to have at the
very least been in the mix. With his style of running I’m sure there will be other hard
luck stories ahead, I just hope tomorrow isn’t one of them. I backed him at 4/1 the other
day (put him up at in the ante post competition at those odds) I should have been in earlier,
my fault for forgetting he was running. If he gets a clear run this time I’m very hopeful he
will take this.I really like Nathra tomorrow and she will like the ground, have done her along with Breton Rock (ew) …good luck with Librisa Breeze Graham, lovely looking horse, shame he’s not turning out for the Grey Horse Handicap at Newmarket tomorrow but that leaves my Dark Power in with a chance to win it
JacThings turn out best for those who make the best of how things turn out...I’m a big fan of LIBRISA BREEZE Ginger. I put him up in the Diamond
Jubilee and the Lennox Stakes recently and I think he was unlucky not to have at the
very least been in the mix. With his style of running I’m sure there will be other hard
luck stories ahead, I just hope tomorrow isn’t one of them. I backed him at 4/1 the other
day (put him up at in the ante post competition at those odds) I should have been in earlier,
my fault for forgetting he was running. If he gets a clear run this time I’m very hopeful he
will take this.Librisa Breeze probably does have the best form, but as you rightly say BigG – “IF he gets a clear run”. At 4/1 I’d be backing him myself – so imo you’ve got value there – I just think at between 9/4 and 5/2 is a lay given how difficult he is to win with. Although Newbury’s straight course is easier than Goodwood’s 7f round; especially if they go up the centre. The three pace horses are drawn on the three post positions furthest from the stands. Do wonder if Winston tries too much to ride the perfect race, why wait for a gap when you can come around?
Do think there is another negative though. Although came close in a handicap on a softish surface, has improved since on a sound surface. Could struggle to show that turn of foot on soft.Value Is EverythingTaking four horses for a 15/8 chance isn’t my type of bet tbh
Anyway, I think Daban at 15/2 is a nice bet and have played
I really like Nathra tomorrow and she will like the ground, have done her along with Breton Rock (ew) …good luck with Librisa Breeze Graham, lovely looking horse, shame he’s not turning out for the Grey Horse Handicap at Newmarket tomorrow but that leaves my Dark Power in with a chance to win it
JacToo right Nathra loves soft, Jac. Unlike her stable companion Daban, who I can see coming out tomorrow morning. One of the reasons I’ve gone for Nathra is Gosden is in such good form. Length second to La Cressonniere in last year’s French Guineas reads well. Winner went on to success in Prix Diane. Nathra travels as if she’ll be as effective at this trip. Sire won Lennox at 7f and dam a three parts brother to July Cup winner Owington, so has a speedy pedigree.
This year’s Lennox winner Breton Rock does have a 3 lbs penalty for that success and was favoured by the fast early gallop; so I expected to oppose him here. As you imply – this ground should be right up his street and @ almost double figures on betfair seems once again under-estimated.
Altough Librisa Breeze has the best recent form Massaat‘s 1 1/2 lengths second in last year’s Guineas would surely be good enough to win this? Likes cut in the ground too. Year’s absence is far from ideal, but the Guineas also came when fresh. Rather it was 1m but he’s 12/1. Obviously if a negative market move early tomorrow then it may suggest he’s unfit.
With this looking a far from vintage Hungerford, might favour one who’s got potential to improve. Sir dancealot‘s form isn’t yet up to Librisa Breeze or one or two others; but on looks will not be outshone by any of these and judged by his Bunbury Cup second has more to offer. Ignore the Stewards Cup last time, drawn poorly and slowly away. Not fully convinced he wants a test of stamina at this trip these conditions might give, but is 16/1 not 6/1.
With three possible front runners in Ibn Malik, Kaspersky and Poet’s Vanity this should in theory be truly run. However; former can ruin his chance by pulling if taken on and latter may not be good enough to stay there for long. Kaspersky could take advantage so I’ve saved on him.
Spangled and Mix And Mingle have a chance of sorts, but I’d be surprised if they’re quite good enough in this league.
Value Is EverythingWould back librisa breeze, but i think winston has put the horse in terrible positions the last twice, looking for the glory passages through, no confidence in him now but the horse definitely has a race like this in him, i hope he wins
Another Librisa Breeze fan here @ 6’s
How he won that race on Soft ground at Ascot over 7f last year was beyond belief. Surely he cannot knack things up today, surely not.
I looked at the favourites price earlier and though “hmmm that’s short” he’ll probably win and well done to those who got on at big prices but at the current odds I like Massaat who can go well fresh.
Btw the favourite is owned by Tony “the lizard” bloom who also owns Brighton football club. My mate used to work for him back in the day and apparently he was the master. of gambling that is.
Btw the favourite is owned by Tony “the lizard” bloom who also owns Brighton football club. My mate used to work for him back in the day and apparently he was the master. of gambling that is.
He certainly likes a punt Judge. Interesting read about him below
You’ve certainly got the scatter gun technique down to a tee Ginge!
I put up Librisa Breeze in the ante-post comp at 5/1 and have had a little bit on myself. He’s a horse that deserves to win at Group level and hopefully it’s today.
I’m a big fan of LIBRISA BREEZE Ginger. I put him up in the Diamond
Jubilee and the Lennox Stakes recently and I think he was unlucky not to have at the
very least been in the mix. With his style of running I’m sure there will be other hard
luck stories ahead, I just hope tomorrow isn’t one of them. I backed him at 4/1 the other
day (put him up at in the ante post competition at those odds) I should have been in earlier,
my fault for forgetting he was running. If he gets a clear run this time I’m very hopeful he
will take this.Librisa Breeze probably does have the best form, but as you rightly say BigG – “IF he gets a clear run”. At 4/1 I’d be backing him myself – so imo you’ve got value there – I just think at between 9/4 and 5/2 is a lay given how difficult he is to win with. Although Newbury’s straight course is easier than Goodwood’s 7f round; especially if they go up the centre. The three pace horses are drawn on the three post positions furthest from the stands. Do wonder if Winston tries too much to ride the perfect race, why wait for a gap when you can come around?
Do think there is another negative though. Although came close in a handicap on a softish surface, has improved since on a sound surface. Could struggle to show that turn of foot on soft.It looks to be thinning out quite a bit Ginge, so hopefully the passage problems might not be such an issue.
I couldn’t agree more with you about Winston’s rides on him, after the Lennox we had a conversation on here
and I commented …….“That’s a fair point Ginger, Winston lost him a few lengths at the start by making sure he got
round the back and into the rail. I don’t want to be an armchair jockey, but I thought he
could have tucked in without putting him into the hardest place to get out of. As you said, it
looks impressive when he gets a clear passage and storms through them, but keeping a few wide
off the rail and in behind them might have given him a few options and possibly a better chance.”I’m not so worried about the ground, I think his run at Ascot showed he was able to quicken impressively
out of it. He’s into 6/4 now so my 4/1 looks fairly decent now.Charles, your 5s looks even better, and Botchy your 6s looks an absolute steal
Another Librisa Breeze fan here @ 6’s
How he won that race on Soft ground at Ascot over 7f last year was beyond belief. Surely he cannot knack things up today, surely not.
Trouble is “Soft” is only the clerk’s opinion of the going. The “soft ground” race at Ascot Librisa Breeze won, was only 2.65 seconds slower than Racing Post Standard. That would be a remarkable “soft” ground time if it wasn’t for the four other straight course times on the day of 2.73, 1.92, 1.96 and 2.10 seconds slower than standard. Wind described as “moderate, accross”, so no hurricane behind them.
Were all five straight course races on the day won with truly remarkable performances, Botchy?
Or were five races run over significantly shorter than advertised?
Or did the clerk get it wrong and it was at worst only fractionally on the slow side of good and not even bad enough for good-soft?Librisa Breeze might yet act on truly soft ground, but I wouldn’t rely on that Ascot race for proof.
Although yesterday’s going was imo more like good-soft. Not sure how much rain they had between last race yesterday and now.Value Is EverythingBtw the favourite is owned by Tony “the lizard” bloom who also owns Brighton football club. My mate used to work for him back in the day and apparently he was the master. of gambling that is.
He certainly likes a punt Judge. Interesting read about him below
yes interesting read even if a little bit fawning
I’m surprised more people don’t bet with asian bookmakers. you get much better odds on the asian handicap than you do with normal bookies and you can put however much money you want on. although I doubt there’s much interest in UK racing it’s more about football betting.
I know I’m cutting my throat a bit but I couldn’t resist a little bit each-way on Poet’s Vanity at 28/1. I followed her in the Spring, much to my wallet’s dismay, and I couldn’t let her go unbacked just one last time.
I know I’m cutting my throat a bit but I couldn’t resist a little bit each-way on Poet’s Vanity at 28/1. I followed her in the Spring, much to my wallet’s dismay, and I couldn’t let her go unbacked just one last time.
Bar one we’ve covered the whole field between us, Charles.
That makes Ibn Malik a certainty.Value Is Everything
Jac
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.