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From the ATR website
[b:314vqbke]<i>”Hugh is in scintillating form with 3 double digit winners in the last 4 days at advised prices Highland Knight 12-1, Fiery Lad 14-1 and Stellar Express 25-1 (R4 25p)”</i>[/b:314vqbke]…etc
Highland Knight – Advised 12/1
Betfair Price at <b>9am</b> before most bookmakers have even priced up, <b>11.0</b> or approx <b>9/1</b> with a firm’s overround. It was never bigger.
Where was the 12/1???Fiery Lad – Advised 14/1
Betfair Price at <b>9am</b> before most bookmakers have even priced up <b>16.5</b>, or approx <b>12/1</b> with a firms overround. The selection didnt go up on the ATR website until <b>9.35am</b> at the earliest, by <b>10am</b> it was <b>10.0</b> on BF or approx <b>8/1</b> with the bookmakers. Drifted out to an SP of 10/1.
Where was the 14/1???Stellar Express – Advised 25/1
Betfair Price at <b>9am</b> before most bookmakers have even priced up <b>27.0</b> or approx <b>18/1</b> with a firms overround. Selection was on the ATR website at <b>10.01am</b>, Betfair price at <b>10am</b> was <b>14.0</b> or approx <b>11/1</b> with the firms. Even taking a 25% reduction factor for 3 early non runners into account… <!– s:? –>
<!– s:? –>Hugh knows his stuff, The Form Factor is good, but taking the credit for profitably based on prices that just don’t exist…well we could all do that.
Forum member GDC wrote on his thread in the lays and plays that Fiery Lad was 14’s at Hill’s for about half an hour the night before.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
Hugh knows his stuff, The Form Factor is good, but taking the credit for profitably based on prices that just don’t exist…well we could all do that.
There’s only got to be one bookmaker with the claimed price at time of tipping to be valid. Trouble is Hugh is so successful that bookmakers have a constant eye on his tips. So prices do "exist" at time of tip, but are slashed as soon as bookmakers see them. Suspect it can be slashed within a minute of tipping, giving the impression of not "existing". Not Hugh’s fault, just one of those things. What else can he do Cav?
Can’t work to SP because the reason for the tip in the first place is "value". If it were considerably shorter it wouldn’t be a "tip" at all. So what other price is there to quote?
Have heard Hugh say in the past that punters should only back his tips if available at no more than 5% shorter than price advertised.
Value Is EverythingI know Highland Knight was 14/1 in the Betfred shops at around 8:55am as I had it in a Lucky15 (didn’t realise Hugh Taylor had put it up).
Doubt you’d have got any meaningful amount on at that price though!Quite a few tipping services rely on tipping standout prices, available with one firm at one time or other, ptrobably hardly laid (if laid at all).
I think all advertising of tipping claims should be forced to give results to SP somewhere in the ad – a bit like loan sharks have to state APR.
Quite a few tipping services rely on tipping standout prices, available with one firm at one time or other, ptrobably hardly laid (if laid at all).
I think all advertising of tipping claims should be forced to give results to SP somewhere in the ad – a bit like loan sharks have to state APR.
If Hugh tips a horse at 12/1 and comes in to an SP of 6/1, it would NOT have been a tip at all had the original tip price been 6/1…
So Corm, in your SP World… Hugh is forced to give a tip that HE DOES NOT BELIEVE should be a tip. Price is all important to a value bettor/tipper. Had the original tip been 6/1, Hugh would’ve looked elsewhere.
You’re compromising him for being successful. It’s his success that slashes the price.
Value Is EverythingYes, I know what you mean GT – it’s just that the prices of stand-out horses are normally short-lived and few punters get on so a ’12/1′ advertised winner is often not that at all in reality so is, in effect, a ‘false’ claim. Like someone saying that suits are only £25.00 at Samuek Windsor when they have bought the last one at that price and all others are £120. I think a few tipsters report on the basis of stand-outs which are often unavailable generally.
But the way to make money is to take advantage of such instances, no doubt.
So, in short, most people can easily judge ‘value’ when selecting stand-out priced horses. Not many can beat SP though and in terms of ‘bedating the books’ that is the acid test. Not that it necessarily matters to any individual whether they can (beat SP that is) – so long as they can get on at the longer prices.
Yes, I know what you mean GT – it’s just that the prices of stand-out horses are normally short-lived and few punters get on so a ’12/1′ advertised winner is often not that at all in reality so is, in effect, a ‘false’ claim. Like someone saying that suits are only £25.00 at Samuek Windsor when they have bought the last one at that price and all others are £120. I think a few tipsters report on the basis of stand-outs which are often unavailable generally.
But the way to make money is to take advantage of such instances, no doubt.
So, in short, most people can easily judge ‘value’ when selecting stand-out priced horses. Not many can beat SP though
and in terms of ‘bedating the books’ that is the acid test. Not that it necessarily matters to any individual whether they can (beat SP that is) – so long as they can get on at the longer prices.
In my experience not many people can "easily judge value", even when "selecting stand-out priced horses". And most people "can beat SP’s", these days punters have to beat SP’s by quite a bit to make a profit.
It’s impossible to judge a successful value tipster by SP’s because his success brings the price down to a level where it’s impossible to show a profit.
I suppose if you need another way of judging other than advertised price; then it’s best to work on a price 5% shorter than advised prices… So punters have a chance of taking a "good price" before it gets too bad… Without compromising successful tipsters too much for being successful.
When a professional gambler might work on making 10% profit on his/her bets; taking over 5% off advertised prices is unfair.
Value Is EverythingIf he recommends people to go to DFS because they have a sale on then he would be right but no one would take any notice. In the gambling industry information is considered a valuable commodity and usually it is time sensitive. Whether advertizing of this nature contravenes trading standards in law is one thing, but it probably contravenes them in spirit.
If he recommends people to go to DFS because they have a sale on then he would be right but no one would take any notice. In the gambling industry information is considered a valuable commodity and usually it is time sensitive. Whether advertizing of this nature contravenes trading standards in law is one thing, but it probably contravenes them in spirit.
That’s not fair and you should be careful what you say EF. What’s Hugh supposed to do? These prices ARE available at time of putting them up. It’s not his fault that (being so successful) bookmakers immediately slash the price.
Value Is EverythingWhen you find the bookmaker laying 12/1 about exchange 10 shots, let me know Ginge.
Cheers.
What, I ask, is the point of having a tipping service that advises bets at odds that will at best be laid to buttons ‘n’ beans or at worst not be laid at all?
Is Hugh Taylor’s ‘service’ available to anyone with an ATR username and password i.e free and in the public domain?
If so it can surely be of no surprise to anyone that his advised odds are to all intents and purposes mythical
Presumably ATR pay Hugh a handsome retainer. If I were he I’d certainly demand one as recompense for buggering-up my value by having them leaked to a lazy legion
Hugh Taylor is a pleasant, unassuming and knowledgeable chap who has over the last ten years or so corresponded on several message boards, including TRF. It was clear to me then, and I’m sure others, that he had the mettle to make his betting pay
So value yourself Hugh and value your bets. In the immortal words of Phil Bull you have "soiled your nest" by going public. It’s the soft, safe option and ultimately both demeaning and self-defeating
All tips ect must be proofed to SP or it is just a load of [expletive].
I’m sorry but with respect this is nonsense and shows a complete misunderstanding of what Hugh’s column is all about. He is not trying to tip who he thinks will win the race, he is tipping the horse he thinks is overpriced therefore, judging his results at starting price is wrong. As Ginger has pointed out if the price was shorter he probably wouldn’t tip it.
I have every reason to believe the prices he mentions are available. First of all he would have nothing to gain by inflating the price as that would defeat the object of the column. 2. He always names the bookmaker where he got the price. 3. I have a thread on a poker forum I help admin. I am also a believer in the value method and that is how I post my selections. I was very successful during the last jumps campaign 55% ROI to level stakes, although have been dire this flat season. On a couple of occaisions last jumps season I posted the same selection as Hugh. Mine were posted earlier and on both occaisions I got a longer price than Hugh advertised when he posted his. I have no doubt whatsoever that the prices he advises are available at the time he made his selection.
People really need to understand the value of his column is not in backing his tips but reading, and trying to understand the methods he uses and applying them to your own betting.
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