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Having backed Norwich to win tonight, it looks like a very straight game to me….:biggrin: :biggrin: :biggrin:
Above posted at Norwich 2 Man City 0.
Now 2-2, and I’ve changed my mind: it’s all bent I tell you, it’s all bent!!!
Quote: from cubone on 1:01 pm on Feb. 28, 2005[br]Could some one take a simple task of calculating the % of favs that win during a year. and compare that stat with the one for similar years before exchanges were introduced<br>
Taking 2002 to be the year Exchanges ‘took off’:
Clear Favs since 1/1/02:
Flat 3178/9691 SR33% LSP-7%<br>AW 1176/3867 30% -9%<br>NH 3445/9472 36% -9%
Clear Favs 1/1/98 – 31/12/01:
Flat 3943/12141 32% -8%<br>AW 1179/3560 33% -8%<br>NH 4129/11109 37% -8%
Doubt if any of the above is statistically significant or the sample sizes large enough to prove anything. Make of it what you will.
AW SR dropping to 30% from the time-honoured flat SR of ~33%is all that takes my eye.
Still plenty of action before your quid runs out, betting unnamed SP Favs blind, no bees:)
<br>
Does a horse being punted in from 20s to 7-2 favourite, while the paper favourite drifts from 5-2 to 18s on Betfair (as happened in one banded Southwell race recently) suggest a straight race to you Cubone?
This happened in a banded race at Southwell? I have to say I am most suprised…..:o
Selorsra…thank you very much. for your work.
I will try to make a case one way or the other out of the stats.
Cubone
Hi Cubone, if there is anything going on regarding laying, it may be wise to ignore the fav, as it attract’s too much attention. Maybe how many "unlucky" or "Slow start" comments in relation to number of horses ran, might be a better route. Just a thought.:)
We had a poll on here a month or two back asking whether people thought that racing was straighter, benter or much the same as twelve months ago. Not one person reckoned it was straighter (it seems John Maxse of the Jockey Club himself isn’t a member of this forum). The poll even got a mention in the Racing Post.
The question should be is it easier to detect now than it was 10 years ago.
Will it be esier to detect if there was no exchanges
Cubone;)
<br>Seems to me that different standards are being applied to football and racing in this thread.
Fixing a match by involving all the players is clearly difficult, but so is fixing a horse race with a big field.
But surely the football equivalent of the single non trier is the player who dives in the penalty area, or who simulates injury in an attempt to get an opponent sent off.
Looked at in that light, football is totally corrupt and every single game is affected.
AP
I’d say that’s the equivalent of a jockey trying too hard to win, by overusing the whip or deliberately blocking a rival’s path, for instance. We bet on the basis that jockeys and footballers are trying to win, and if they try too hard and get away with it then at least they are trying.
The real problem comes when they are trying to lose. I don’t see any evidence of that in football, but I could be mistaken.
(Edited by Prufrock at 2:58 pm on Mar. 1, 2005)
It certainly has happened in Football…despite aquitals
At my club, a goalkeeper almost certainly threw a match (had connections with some of the previously accused in the game too) and was virtually sacked because of it…
Cannot say more…
Racing is probably better than it has been because of scrutiny
But what about Rugby? Last weekend?
Racing analysis has (I believe) always been to a certain degree, about balancing factual horse form with trainer / owner intentions. Half of the "art" of weighing up a race is trying to get inside the trainers / owners head.<br> I feel this becomes less important when you get into higher grades, as the prestige starts to overide any petty(or not so) gambles that may seem aluring to some lower down the scale. <br>If you are to play in these lower grade events, why do people want everything out in the open, its a bit like cutting your own throat. I envisage a day when betting on anything under a 100 rated to be foolish, not because of the coups etc, going on. No, more because of this insistency to clean up all the low grade stuff has gone to far, and we might aswell just hand over a small percentage of our income to bookmakers and exchange operators. The books will be just soooo perfect, they’ll be no bones left to pick on.
Its heading that way already, you can see the difference in just the last 5 years say. Anyone that makes a few quid at this the hard way will have noticed just how much harder it is to keep ahead, yet people moan on about a clean up. Makes no sense to me.
I mentioned this a few weeks ago, about how I’m unsure if computers are really a benefit. I could sit up all night with the form book and put a good 12 – 14 hours a day in. That used to put me well ahead in the game, as the average punter would have given up long before, now some snotty nosed school kid or casual punter can have almost all the info I have instantly, unless I dig extra deep, and that might put me JUST ahead of them, not well clear as before. Yes lets clean up the game, have a comp program written thats superb at predicting the true prices, shouldnt be too hard to compile one, if the races are as straight as a die.
I like to read between the lines. Yet all we seem to hear is people whinging because their ratings arent working out.
I must now apologise for my whinge, I’m just in a bit of a grouchy mood, and any old subject would have sufficed I suppose:biggrin:
Much better:)
Good rant, and I particularly agree with your contempt for the snotty-nosed kid. :cool:
I don’t know if your remarks about the undesirability of a sanitised version of racing, in which ratings work out all the time, was directed at the likes of me, but my wish to see the sport cleaned up goes a bit deeper than that immediate piece of self-interest. I simply have never liked cheats, especially when they are assisted in their cause by the incompetence of officialdom. It is also important for the health of the whole sport that cheats remain a peripheral concern.
A fellow forumite  once stated "every man and his dog know’s about group form" (or something similar)so if that were true, it would follow, as you state CP ÂÂÂ
The books will be just soooo perfect, they’ll be no bones left to pick on.
from 01/01/04<br>Class A Fav’s 56-181 30.6% £lsp -32.14
Seems to me that there are plenty of bones to pick on in that sphere of racing,which i do believe,all horse’s ran on thier merit’s
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