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British NH racing really is pants isn’t it. Buy some Irish feed or sumat lads.
BUY THE SUN
There must be an Irish trainer wishing they had sent something over for the novice Chase. It would have been there for the taking.
That Topham win for Livelovelaugh was piss taking taken to the next level. He could have won by 3 furlongs. Irish horses need to he given a stone penalty at the very least or our handicapper needs to change his lower his ratings for British horses by at least the same.
I’m ripping up my Grand National shortlist, seriously. I’m starting from scratch with a line through anything British.
BUY THE SUN
This horse has run in 14 handicap chases, 4 of them in the UK, has been openly campaigned, came second and third in very competitive and valuable handicaps.
Was running today off his highest ever rating at the age of 11. He isn’t some sort of unexposed novice who has been secretly campaigned.
He clearly loves jumping those type of fences, and got a handy lead due to simultaneous bad jumps by 2 of the other horses in the lead.
But just look at some of the ratings the UK horses were expected to run off. ibleo 157…madness.
I’m almost incredulous about a horse finding that much improvement at the age of 11 to be honest………
BUY THE SUN
I dont think he has found a massive amount of improvement, possibly a few pounds but thats not unreasonable when you consider how well he jumps those unique fences. I do think he was on a fair rating going into the race, but some of the UK horses were badly rated in comparison to him. He has previously shown a liking for the national fences finishing 11th in the Grand national “Tracked leaders, upsides 18th, close 4th 24th (2nd Valentine’s), ridden approaching 2 out, soon weakened” – so although he liked the jumping part, he couldnt stay 4 miles 2. the topham was therefore ideal for him.
If that same race had been run over the mildmay course i dont think he’d have won it. A few things went well for him in the race as i have said.
The problem now is that Livelovelaugh will probably be raised 8/9 lbs to about 154. That will not solve the issue. It will mean that LLL will never win a handicap again, but a different Irish trained horse will do the same again next year.
The handicapper will treat the symptom rather than the illness. The illness is that the UK horses are too high. Magic Saint at 157, Ibleo at 157 mad stuff.
Having said all that, its not unusual for both UK or irish trained horses to master the national course like that
Here’s LLL’s RP notes from his 1 1/4 length third over the trip at the DRF, splitting Minella Times who had won over the distance earlier on the season, and Farclas who is no slouch either:
Chased leaders, led on inner after 3 out, not fluent 2 out, faced strong challenge going okay approaching last, ridden after last, headed but close up run-in, no extra towards finish (tchd 25/1)
And his notes from his most recent start, a neck second to his fellow joint fav Mitchouka
Led, joined before 4th, led again after 5th, 2 lengths ahead going okay after 2 out (usual 3 out), not fluent and pushed along last, soon ridden, reduced lead towards finish, headed final strides (op 7/2 tchd 16/5)
Not exactly tenderly ridden to toddle round and drop his mark- he ran in the top third of the handicap today. The next two horses home were British trained.
Won one chase in eighteen. 11 years old. Seemingly thouroughly exposed. Backed in to favouritism. Won pulling a cart.
BUY THE SUN
Had previously shown a liking for the National fences, an ability to place in big field handicaps… Even without the benefit of hindsight, many people obviously had the view that he was a very solid each way bet, in what looked to be an average enough field.
The key point in the race however was the dreadful mistakes made simultaneously by two other horses at the front. They hampered others in behind and left LLL so far clear that he was able to take a breather at a very important time while the others were busy trying to make up the lost ground.
That’s the bit of luck you need to turn a placed effort into a win.
It’s not LLL’s handicap mark. The British trained horses, especially the ones in the South are pretty much overrated. There was also no fluke about Ahoy Senor winning the Sefton, especially when you consider that Northern trained horses fare pretty well at Aintree. By the way, if Denman bypassed the Sefton after his defeat in the RSA hurdle, why did they run Bravemansgame at all after suffering the same fate at Cheltenham?
Come off it lads.
tbh LLL has been pretty aggressively campaigned. It’s just that he clearly goes well over these fences. Went in to my notebook after the 2019 Grand National for one who’ll be suited by this race. Nothing – not even Tiger Roll – was going better than him before the Melling Road. Obviously took to the fences extremely well on similar ground to today but just didn’t get home. Faded badly from the home turn. So had the 2019 Grand National been run over around 3m LLL would’ve put up a performance just as good as he did today. Horses for courses… The 11 year old did not have to “improve” much if at all, just run to what the 2019 GN showed him probably capable of at 2 3/4 miles over these fences. However, what was the handicapper supposed to do? Couldn’t really up the horse 10+ lbs for finishing 33 lengths behind Tiger Roll.Trouble is I didn’t look at my notebook today!
Value Is Everything
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