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15K to the winner
https://www.racingpost.com/racecards/28/kempton/2021-03-20/778462/
In fairness Botchy that race is only open to horses who were entered at Cheltenham but who didn’t make the final cut for any of the races. Because less horses in total were entered and ran at Cheltenham, a consequence is that first race at kempton really suffers.
Never realised Wex, would not of been surprised though given the size of fields on a Saturday the last couple of years to be frank.
why then didn’t any Irish horse swerve the ultra competitive savills to grab the Kgv?
Monalee would have run but Covid travel rules the time ruled him out. Which was a pity as ideal race for him I feel.
Jockeyship partly something to do with Ire/GB thing. Blackmore, Kennedy and Townend can knock the socks off the likes of Cobden and de Boinville. Irish racing is a hard enough school..I think of Jody Townend’s remark when she won on Great White Shark at the Galway Festival “we got murdered everywhere so I had to go round”. The ability to repeatedly slam the door in the opposition’s face or work forwards through a field of faltering or fading runners whilst keeping your own horse in a good rhythm and conserving energy is a difficult skill. Easier when you’re on the best horse but still.
“Blackmore, Kennedy and Townend can knock the socks off the likes of Cobden and de Boinville.”
Good point. Maybe that is a factor in some of the bigger owners not sending horses to those trainers. Why would you want your horses ridden by average jockeys? I would put Harry Skelton in that category as well.
I think racing, like everything in life, is ultimately influenced by economic forces.
Where once the UK had the stronger currency, and English yards could plunder the best Irish Point winners and Stores generally at the Sales, since Ireland joined the Euro that trend has come to an end, the best Irish-reared prospects stay in Ireland and they even plunder the cream of English Point winners.
That explains their dominance in the Festival non-Handicaps.
In the Handicaps, dark rumours abound on social media about how Irish runners arent busy for ages leading up to the Festival and even a few pounds on top of their Irish mark cant stop them and how some are getting other “assistance” too.
My answer to that is this –
Ultima: An English-trained winner.
Boodles: Jeff Kidder was openly campaigned and only eight lengths behind Shanahiyr last time out.
Coral Cup: Heaven Help Us had won a 20-runner handicap last time out! How much more open can you get?
Grand Annual: Another English-trained winner!
Pertemps: Mrs Milner had fallen last time out and prior to that was fourth of 20 in a handicap in which she led approaching the last and ran her heart out.
Mildmay Of Flete – The Shunter had been a close third of 20 before winning the Morebattle and this.
Kim Muir – Mount Ida won and runner up in Novice Chases last two runs.
County – Belfast Banter given every chance and runner up novice hurdle previous run.
Martin Pipe – Galopin Des Champs had been only nine lengths behind Tuesdays 24-length Supreme winner last time out!
Wheres the strangling in running? Wheres the conspicuous improvement?
Like many here I have followed racing a lifetime and seen a fair few outrageous plots, but there’s not much wrong here.
Theyve got the economic ammunition and they are using it – good luck to them.
Simple as.
Some of the sour grapes on social media is embarrassing.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"The domination has just suddenly happened. This has been coming for a number of years. I think the Irish racing is just much more competitive and the likes of Mullins and de Bromhead are clearly brilliant trainers. Allied to some very shrewd operators like Cromwell and Meade the Irish are very strong at the moment and looking at all the brilliant Irish trained novices coming through this domination looks like continuing for a good while yet.
I am not sure it is sour grapes. I think you have got to applaud the Irish trainers. They are doing something right. It naturally begs the question if the British trainers are doing something wrong or if they can do anything differently and better.
Maybe it is a one off but the Irish domination of the novice hurdles and the championship races does not give the British trainers much cause for optimism. It is only natural questions are going to be asked when even someone like Nicholls does not get a sniff of a winner and Henderson really should only have had one.
I used to visit Ireland a lot in normal times and much prefer going racing there than in Britain. When you look at the racing scene there, the success comes as no surprise.
This is a list of locally trained horses that started at 8/1 or less in the Grade 1 races:
Metier 11/2 7th
Shiskin 4/9 Won
Epatante 4/1 3rd
Goshen 11/2 8th
Roksana 3/1 3rd
Bravemansgame 4/1 3rd
Bear Ghylls 15/2 4th
Imperial Aura 8/1 PU
Mister Fisher 8/1 PU
Tritonic 4/1 5th
Barbados Bucks 8/1 11th
Champ 13/2 PUApart from Shiskin, only Roksana finished within 8L of the winner.
Strong evidence that the local horses are only Championship standard in football terms, not in racing terms. Norwich, Brentford, Reading, Swansea look good competing against each other, but not even Guardiola or Klopp would be able to get them winning games in the Champions League.
Ten years ago, would Henderson and Nicholls have been training horses for outfits like Owners Group and Middleham Park. That’s not to knock those syndicates, but isn’t it an indication that wealthy individual owners have reduced in numbers, and the ones that are still going keep fewer horses. How many of those owners have moved to having horses trained in Ireland?
Belfast Banter is an interesting example – bought by the current owners for 30,000 after he’d finished second in an Irish point, they sent him to Skelton. He won a bumper with him, after which the owners moved the horse back to Ireland. Maybe getting less than £2000 for winning that bumper opened their eyes?
I’d just add that the different philosophies of handicapping are clearly a factor. A small stable, a neighbour of my own trainer, sent out Milkwood to finish third in the County Hurdle.
Milkwood started his handicap career on a mark of 127, but all he’d done was win a NH novice hurdle at Hereford and finish third in a small field at Wetherby. I’m pretty sure a horse with similar form in Ireland starts on a much lower mark.
Milkwood then had the temerity to finish second in a 0-130 handicap at Wincanton and got raised 5lbs. He followed that by winning a six runner level weight intermediate hurdle at Ffos Las, a race in which he was the highest rated runner, so entitled to win and he started 15/8. He was raised another 9lbs for that win. This isn’t handicapping by any sensible assessment of form, it’s handicapping as a form of punishment. How can any horse that has never been anywhere near a Grade 1 track and has won two £4k races, end up on a mark of 141?
From this point British trainers need to send their charges to Ireland to race much more often and this would help the handicapper to be more accurate, leading to a universal British/Irish ratings system. The British government needs to intervene in some way to alter the economic forces and encourage British owners to use British trainers. There’s nothing substandard about British trainers or jockeys it is the horse stock imbalance (created by the economic forces) that is to blame. It is completely reversed from 30/40 years ago and will take some time to be equally balanced again. In the meantime, and if nothing is done, NH racing in Britain will continue to decline as we are reaching the point where the entire British programme is becoming an irrelevance for ‘big’ owners and the viewing public.
Kevin Blake said it was because the Irish are better horseman etc. I think he has a point, in that they are, as are the French. Both very interested in investing in the breeding and production of horses. UK either then buy them after they have won (deep pockets) or buy what the Irish/French have produced as stores. Where is our National Hunt programme for breeding horses in the UK? Weatherby’s have launched a National Hunt website for stallions https://www.nhstallions.co.uk/home 27 featured. It’s safe to say we are not going to be bothering France or Ireland on that front – which leaves the ability/having the ability to buy the best available. Trainers in France own stallions and run entires. No Risk At All – owned by now retired French trainer John Paul Gallorini. Other than Nicky Henderson who has a good link to owner/breeders and accommodates them – I can’t think of many trainers who have any good supply from owner breeders over here, because there are so few. This sort of demise has on the cards for about the last 10 years.
Were the British “better horsemen” when they used to dominate Cheltenham?
No, Sterling was strong against the Irish Punt and the English got the best material at the Sales.
Are the Irish better horsemen now?
No, since joining the Euro the boot has moved onto the other foot.
The answer lies outside the racing bubble in the wider economic world – a place where many in racing never look.
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It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"ap good points. Although I would argue that just because a race is held at kempton rather than hereford shouldn’t mean the kempton winner should be necessarily rated higher.
I’ve quoted a couple of particularly baffling examples of marks given to UK horses.
Goshen rated 164 going into the Champion hurdle. A mark based around beating song for someone, getting 6 pounds on heavy ground. Who himself somehow manages to have a mark of 158.
Solo last year being given 157 after 2 uk runs where he beat a 67 rated flat horse.
Tritonic this year. 147 for his performances.
If horses at the top are being rated like this, then the horses they are being rated in comparison to in the UK must also be too high.
Even looking today, regal encore rated 154 at the age of 13. Does anyone really believe this rating? 144 might be more accurate. Truckers lodge, rated 155 for winning a midlands national. Mad stuff.
Another example
Secret investor rated 164 – 1 run after being stuffed in a handicap off 159. 164 same rating as minella Indo went into yesterday’s race on.Royale Pagaille rated 166 for winning a race in haydock which totally fell apart. A novice chaser – Only 3 pounds lower than Savills winner A Plus Tard and only 9 pounds lower than a dual Gold Cup winner.
When ask the handicapper used to be on Chapman would ask Phil Smith to explain why horse A is rated 160. Smiths answer would be because horse B is rated 155 and horse A beat him by 5 lengths. Without ever considering whether horse B should have been rated 155 in the first place
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