- This topic has 8 replies, 4 voices, and was last updated 11 years, 10 months ago by
.
- Posts
I have just read VTC‘s new system entry "Flung" along with his "Midnight and Powers" plus Homesimpson‘s "Colours" makes me wonder how hard it is to start a new system and perhaps why!
Perhaps we are egocentric or simply have the desire to succeed when faced with a challenge, who knows?
However the question I wish to raise is how do YOU go about creating something new or if not new what inspires you to root through what may be previously well trodden paths or is it simply a trigger which can make the penny drop.
I have been told many times that PRICE IS KING! Short prices do not pay, it is impossible to profit from favourites and yet despite all the well meaning advice over the years I still tried.
"You will never win following tipsters" has been another phrase I heard time and time again and ignored. What could be better than a napped favourite from Templegate, Newsboy or Goodfellow, it MUST win and yet it is proven to do just that over the long term.
MONEY IS KING! And so the additional route to failure is a staking plan on the short priced favourites that are napped in the morning paper. I have never lost a great deal nor have I won very much, at best I guess I have trod water which is not too bad compared to some.
Therefor perhaps PRICE IS KING!
So after so much gab I arrive at the crux of this posting and hope someone brighter than myself may have the answer.
Is there a price bracket where winners are regular enough to return a profit without those long losing runs which break so many hearts?
Is it possible there is a bracket between the short un-profitable prices and the outsiders on which we should concentrate. A price range in which we should only bet our selections, a price range where the stats show we can neither expect a long losing run or lose money following the favourites.
I asked the question "How do YOU do it" what is it that triggers the system follower/maker to investigate new ideas to them even though they may be well trodden paths by others.
Billy's Outback Shack
Even if someone says there is no winning ‘systems’ and the only way to succeed is to study the form. That in itself is a system of sorts. What is studying form? Can the horse do the distance?, Has the horse got course form?, is the trainer in form?, how has the horse ran in comparison to rivals? Ratings?, weights?, etc.
It’s all the bloody same……
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
I’ve used this one for ages and it finds more than a fair number of good priced winners. Very rarely does a selection end up fav.
1) Use only races that are Class 2 Heritage H/caps or above that are paying 4 places on Betfair.
2) Use two criteria that you consider most important to you and rate the whole field for each. Highlight the top four in each.
3) Rate the highlighted horses again using your third most important criteria.
3) Using all three criteria ratings, rank those highlighted horses
4) Note the offered price of the top four ranked.
5) disregard the lowest and highest priced and bet on the middle two.
6) Note the one of those two that is ranked highest in your most favoured criteria. 3 win & 4 place. 3 win on the other one. 10 staked in total.
7) bfsp in all cases.It works for me.
OK gentlemen, you have used your chosen system/method/form guide etc. to narrow the field and arrived at 1/2/3 possible horses you think may have a good chance of winning.
We have all heard: –
"I think it will win but at that price it is not for me" and so the race is either avoided or the one thought to have the very best chance of winning is "taken on" with another at a better price.
Perhaps the risk to reward is considered to big or can there be another consideration? The knowledge of a personal strike rate requires a better price.
If you are clever enough to find a winner every other bet then in round terms 2/1 becomes a minimum required price.
Should your win ration be 1 in 10 bets I would think 11/1 should be a minimum price required. (There will be mathematicians out there who will challenge my figures but I stress they are subjective).
All strike rates when known need a better price in order to turn a profit and therefore how much consideration is given to available prices before striking a bet?
Again I am sure we have all heard: –
"I will never accept a price under 5/2 etc." or "It will never win at that price". Complainants say this is a bad race for favourites or outsiders must be avoided for this kind of race.
Like it or not, knowingly or otherwise we are price influenced.
Again I must return to the question, is there a price band on which we should concentrate more than others. I think most of us prefer to avoid long losing runs but know odds-on favourites are either a mugs game or for the really heavy hitters and so there must be somewhere in between worthy of consideration.
Billy's Outback Shack
Bill you post this to ginger as he can explain the maths and price bit a lot better than myself.
Gaelic Warrior Gold Cup Winner 2026
For me
Nathan
this is not so much a math problem but more one of following my gut.
I have noticed greater profit (in the short term) being derived from a certain price bracket and thought it may be possible to make a system from a main component of a limited and possibly profitable price section.
However it may possibly be solved via staking rather than selection.
Billy's Outback Shack
I have just had a recollection from a sadly now defunct forum run by a chap named Jim but for the life of me I cannot think what it was called.
Jim was far more knowledgeable with regard to betting than your average punter and once offered me a system which clearly illustrates the value of price.
The Daily Mirror was suggested but I guess variations could easily adapt.
Bet only the SF horse when available at 6/1 plus.
The memory plays tricks and because I never did take up the system I am wondering if there were any race stipulations but the meaning of the system was quite simple that the winners will come along and at sufficient frequency for the price to compensate the lost bets.
Billy's Outback Shack
Price is KING!
Through habit I always prefer to get my bets away early despite over the years being told countless times it is beneficial to delay until mid or late morning but guess we all go our own way regardless.
But nevertheless it is always a pleasant surprise and along with a modicum of conceit when it pays off.
Yesterday I took 9/4 about Alex My Boy which won at 4/6, Beakers N Num Nums 9/2 which won at 7/4 and Jakey won at 3/1 having taken 9/2.
Then my favourite betting innovation of all time BOG paid me nicely with Me and Ben winning at 5/1 when I took 4/1.
It was a GOOD day and they certainly don’t come along that often for me in such abundance.
I always enjoy knowing how other go about this sport of our choosing because despite being as
Nathan
claims me to be 104 years old it is always possible to collect small but worthy gems along the way.
Billy's Outback Shack
I have just read
VTC
‘s new system entry "Flung" along with his "Midnight and Powers" plus
Homesimpson
‘s "Colours" makes me wonder how hard it is to start a new system and perhaps why!
Perhaps we are egocentric or simply have the desire to succeed when faced with a challenge, who knows?
However the question I wish to raise is how do YOU go about creating something new or if not new what inspires you to root through what may be previously well trodden paths or is it simply a trigger which can make the penny drop.
I have been told many times that PRICE IS KING! Short prices do not pay, it is impossible to profit from favourites and yet despite all the well meaning advice over the years I still tried.
"You will never win following tipsters" has been another phrase I heard time and time again and ignored. What could be better than a napped favourite from Templegate, Newsboy or Goodfellow, it MUST win and yet it is proven to do just that over the long term.
MONEY IS KING! And so the additional route to failure is a staking plan on the short priced favourites that are napped in the morning paper. I have never lost a great deal nor have I won very much, at best I guess I have trod water which is not too bad compared to some.
Therefor perhaps PRICE IS KING!
So after so much gab I arrive at the crux of this posting and hope someone brighter than myself may have the answer.
Is there a price bracket where winners are regular enough to return a profit without those long losing runs which break so many hearts?
Is it possible there is a bracket between the short un-profitable prices and the outsiders on which we should concentrate. A price range in which we should only bet our selections, a price range where the stats show we can neither expect a long losing run or lose money following the favourites.
I asked the question "How do YOU do it" what is it that triggers the system follower/maker to investigate new ideas to them even though they may be well trodden paths by others.
As Catherine Wotsit used to say, "how very dare you" Billion.
Using bold lettering and capitals (in a thread title too) like that. Very "rude" of you Sir.
Your moaning/highlighting in the other thread about me using capitals and bold lettering as "rude" seems more than a little hypocritical.Did think of contributing to your thread, giving away all my secrets. But you’d only think/say "the ego has landed".
Value Is Everything
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.