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“after all he’s still approximately £21k in the worst case scenario.”
Exactly THIS.^
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"Why did he take £21,756 from the Lucky 31, if he was already guaranteed at £30,490 at that time?
This is not a cashout, it’s simply stealing almost 9k from guaranteed winnings!!! How can BF get away with it and how badly must this bloke be in debt? Based on his stupidity to realize which number is bigger 21,756 or 30,490……I’ve been thinking more and more about this with increasing incredulity based on the numbers supplied.
To illustrate just how much he’s had a bum deal, if he had £100,000 and deposited it on the exchange, given the horse started 15/8 he might have been able to lay a £100,000-£50,000, meaning he’d have won £50,000 less 2% commission so £49,000 on top of what he already had coming if the horse got beat and when it won he’d have picked up his £400,000 plus less the £100,000 he lost hedging.
A much better deal than the cash-out which still gave him the chance of the multiple six-figure payout.
I’m actually surprised the bookie is even publicising this cash-out deal.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"I can only assume that given a relatively short timeframe between races the man let his emotions get the better of him and was maybe busy and thus didn’t have the time to sit down and do all the maths? Potentially had his lady in his ear as well prompting him to do the ‘safe’ option, just playing devils advocate as I myself can’t think of any logical reason as to why he chose to do what he did
I’m only going off the numbers I’ve read and obviously it’s hypothetical as few people can lay their hands on £100,000 at short notice.
But it’s one of the most bizarre stories of its type I’ve ever read.
I am "The Horse Racing Punter" on Facebook
https://mobile.twitter.com/Ian_Davies_
https://www.facebook.com/ThePointtoPointNHandFlatracingpunter/
It's the "Millwall FC" of Point broadcasts: "No One Likes Us - We Don't Care"“Do we know that this was a £2 win lucky 31 and £5 win acca or are we assuming?”
Yes the tweet came from BF stating he had the Lucky 31 at a £2 stake plus the accumulator for a £5 stake.
In those two bets alone he already had almost 70k on his final selection PLUS the guaranteed £30,490 from the first four winners (Lucky 15).
As Ian stated, laying the final leg at around 2-1 for 50k or 60k would have cost him between 100k and 120k and reduced the payout to roughly 300k, but he would have had a six figure payout guaranteed.
To be fair though very few people have 100k lying around and even if they could make phone calls to find it – he probably only would have had 30 minutes maximum before the final race. Still, he’s both been robbed and robbed himself there.
It was £1 each way according to this:
https://nitter.net/BetfairRacing/status/1584219582075908096#m
I put the prices quoted into a calculator and got £143k for a £5 acca, £60k for a £1 e/w 31. Before the last leg he was on £15.5k. I have assumed quarter odds. Don’t know what the bonus is though, you usually get a reasonable one for five winners on a 31.
Thanks for sharing, Richard. Maybe he didn’t take the SP for his final choice, just anticipating it would be much lower than the 4/1 or 9/2 on offer at the time he placed the bet. But, I guess you’re right about the bonus as well or maybe the BF SPs were slightly higher than the ones declared.
The tweet doesn’t mention the prices but he must have taken better ones. RP quoted SP, a point or two extra on some of the selections would add up to a lot over a multiple like that.
Does look like he was mugged off on the 31, based on SP he only gained £6k but it seems likely to be less as he was clearly on at bigger prices. Changes my view on it somewhat.
Yes, it changes my view a bit as well. But without the BF SPs we’ll never be able to tell where he was actually standing after four legs.
Imagine winning 425k and limiting yourself to a 1k loss per month. It would take you at least 425 months or over 35 years to lose that money. Don’t think bookies like that.
It was fairly obvious that the Lucky 31 had to be EW; the numbers just didn’t work otherwise.
Have done some sleuthing and Credrojava was 11/2 morning price. The numbers quite don’t tally up (reported as £316k for the acca and £109k for the Lucky 31 by Betfair) if you take the other SPs but I’ve managed to match them exactly with the following prices: 14/1, 11/1, 8/1 and 5/1 which are all plausible.
Also by the time the 4th leg won Credrojava had shortened but only to 4/1.
Punter’s options given those prices:
Let it ride = £425k if Credrojava won, £15k if it lost (already banked via the Lucky 31).
Cash out just the acca = £145k if Credrojava won, £51k if it lost (a plausible option if about £50k had a lot of utility to the bettor).
The acca cash out wasn’t great value (took £36k which implies 7.75-1 about a morning 11/2 shot that was trading at 4-1) but is defensible.
The Lucky 31 cash out though was lunacy (implied odds of 12.5-1 and to add just £7k to an already banked £51k), an almost free shot in relative terms to win £95k literally thrown away.
For future reference a google search for bet calculator brings up a helpful tool: https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator.html
If you have the first 4 legs of a Lucky 31 up then use the Lucky 15 calculator to see where you stand (or put the last runner as ‘lost’ in the Lucky 31 version).
I’m not so sure about the 11/2 for his last leg. Obviously, it would make sense to take a price for your last selection, since it would shorten, if the first four were to win.
In order to cover themselves they would offer something like 2/1 instead of a more realistic 5/1.
But what if the BF SPs were all slightly higher for the first four winners? It would already make a huge difference for the Lucky 15 bet. Even though I was wrong by stating that he backed the fifth selection at 1/14 to lose, the 1/9 you’ve figured out, are still a ripp off.Noel Edmunds should have a show
Racing Cashout or no cashout on a Saturday afternoonBlackbeard to conquer the World
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