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A rookie question. There was a race the other day where none of the horses had ever run before, yet the odds started at about 4/1 and went all the way to 200/1. What influences those odds? The breeding?
The conections of the horse ie trainer, jockey and owner almost certainly have the biggest influence. Even an unfovourably bred animal would attract support with a ‘first-time outer’ and early prices for these races are guesswork and just one persons opinion.
Snobbery exsists to and cheaper horses almost certainly will start at a larger price to more expensive rival.Not forgetting of course that the bookmakers have ‘insiders’ who will have seen how these horses perform on the gallops. Additionally, in return for ‘free’ bets, certain trainers will give bookies the nod.
The breeding would have nothing to do with the odds lengthening from 4/1 to 200/1. It’s pedigree was the same when the first price was offered as it was when 200’s was offered.
I think he was referring to the whole field David, with prices ranging from 4/1 for the FAP out to 200/1 for the no-hopers.
If not, then the horse must have broken a leg in the parade ring.The main influence would be stable confidence. Withstanding facts and figures of the ability the yard to have one ready to perform would be a major contributor to forecast prices. Trainers strike rate with debutante’s etc.
Paddock inspections give the viewing public a chance to predict fitness levels, thirty minutes before the race in the parade ring.
I have a rule in gambling – Do not back a 2 yo debutante during evening racing
It sounds stupid BUT how many horses are prepared to run at 7pm?
A racehorses day is programmed in these yards capable of getting a horse ready. Feed through to exercise has time slots scheduled for 365 days per year. Your "doing well" to start administering amino acids and vitamins the morning of a race, everything is prepared the proceeding morning (24 hours after decs!).
Many of these debutante’s wouldn’t have been in a horsebox more than twice – How would you fancy loading onto a ramp and stationed in the back of a small partition for a two hour journey travelling amongst Britain’s road-users? The parade ring enables you to form an opinion the current well being of the horse and how it’s taken to travelling, saddled, paraded alongside opposite sex, cantered down to post (some debutante’s wouldn’t have any reason to touch a blade of grass before they run) plus loaded into a set of starting stalls.Unfortunately breeding doesn’t cater for everything……
Not forgetting of course that the bookmakers have ‘insiders’ who will have seen how these horses perform on the gallops. Additionally, in return for ‘free’ bets, certain trainers will give bookies the nod.
Interesting.
In a race full of debutants, I’d follow the rest of the bookies in case any inside information is actually DUD-ified.
Would you want to show your hand by offering completely different odds to the others? I’d stick with the plain facts (pedigree, yard, trends) and let the prices naturally drift if the punter’s dollar ain’t biting.
Thank you one and all
Yes I did mean two different horses: 4/1 and 200/1 and I’m not a "he" btwGill
If you were attempting to price the race up with no inside knowledge and no significant factor like the draw to contend with then you would be likely to concentrate on trainers/jockeys, pedigrees and big-race entries (if known).
Trainer, jockey booking, purchase price and connections are obviously the biggest infulence on the price.
I do think pedigree seems to have an influence on occasions too though. In 2005 you used to get some really big prices on Montjeus and Galileos first time out. Remember Guilia wiining a maiden at 50-1, where there didnt appear to be strong opposition. Its very seldom these days you would ever see a horses bred off either of those two at such a big price on debut, (suppose obviously over last few years price of offspring has went up a bit too which may have had some influence in it).
One thing I generally find with first time outers is that its very seldom that a horse will win on debut with a rating of much greater than 80 or so. So, if there are others in the race who have already run and have ratings of 80 or more and have conditions in their favour on the day (especially if there are a few such runners) then its fairly unlikely that a debutant will win, and always factor that in when looking at prices.
At this time of the year many of the top trainers give their thoughts in "stable tours" and this may also have a slight relevance, as has the draw at some courses.
I’d still say that trainer, jockey, purchase price, sire would be the most important in that order.
Ken – do you know which bookmakers offer these free bets to trainers? I’m pretty sure such practices are now forbidden, particularly in light of the Panorama program and Gaye Kelleway’s relationship with at least one very high profile bookmaker.
Boroughill wrote:
……… and I’m not a "he" ……Sorry, Gill, for thinking you are male. It’s just that the picture icon looks like a bloke. Then maybe I don’t know my Simpsons well enough and Burroughill makes me think of Burroughill Lad or maybe it’s Burroughill Lady. See, how you’ve confused me – it doesn’t take a lot to do that these days.
Cheers
Ken
- Total Posts 17716
would suggest the price of these no hopers is in many cases is word of mouth. Racecourse bookies know so many "faces" that very little gets past them. Sometimes though with the huge fields even they get caught out.
Many top bookies have an employee with a good eye on them and it’s not too difficult for them to spot an unfit horse or something that looks like he should be sent to a vet to get his wonky legs fixed/or whatever.
Looking for winners in the paddock isn’t easy. What I used to do is put my programme away and just pick one and if ended up fav then so be it. If it was a longer price I’d back them EW but never for any great amount.
Unless you know something these maidens on the flat, which are full of newcomers can be he riskiest bets going. You could have your lot on a hot pot and a Rainbow View pops up out of nowhere.
Somehow I find Novice Hurdles much less dangerous
Boroughill wrote:
……… and I’m not a "he" ……Sorry, Gill, for thinking you are male. It’s just that the picture icon looks like a bloke. Then maybe I don’t know my Simpsons well enough and Burroughill makes me think of Burroughill Lad or maybe it’s Burroughill Lady. See, how you’ve confused me – it doesn’t take a lot to do that these days.
Cheers
KenNo reason why you should know! I just picked Homer Simpson because I like the little quote that goes with the pic: "You’ll have to speak up, I’m wearing a towel". Makes me chuckle . I picked my username in a hurry. If I’d have thought about it enough I’d have called myself "Burroughill Lass" but I didn’t…….
Too late now.
Yes I did mean two different horses: 4/1 and 200/1 and I’m not a "he" btw
Too late now.
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