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■Super Hornet
http://jp.youtube.com/watch?v=8oqAvcHmu … re=related
■Kip Deville
http://jp.youtube.com/watch?v=jOhDCzxtd … re=related
■Apache Cat And Laurel Guerreiro
http://jp.youtube.com/watch?v=xic-mq1pJ … re=related
■Out Of Control And The Bogberry And Mourilyan
http://jp.youtube.com/watch?v=cPCn8gdEYyM&NR=1
■Lush Lashes
http://jp.youtube.com/watch?v=fXjq8N-EF … re=related
■Eagle Mountain
http://jp.youtube.com/watch?v=Yrfm67iEu … re=related
■Mystical Flight
http://jp.youtube.com/watch?v=wkA-hhMpc … re=related
■JAGUAR MAIL & MORES WELLS 1
http://jp.youtube.com/watch?v=KiCskvB-H0I
■ JAGUAR MAIL & MORES WELLS 2
http://jp.youtube.com/watch?v=7UA9DBrlBS4Anyone know if these races will be shown live online anywhere (I can’t get ATR TV coverage on Sunday morning)?
Anyone know if these races will be shown live online anywhere (I can’t get ATR TV coverage on Sunday morning)?
Try http://www.myp2p.eu/index.php?part=sports and click accordingly. Failing that, try downloading Sopcast… http://www.sopcast.com/download/ and go through the channels. If it’s not being covered by one of the many channels available on Sopcast, I’ll be astonished!..good luck
For what it’s worth and after watching the last work outs this morning here are my tips for the meeting:
VASE
Purple Moon – to do a Phoenix Reach and win this having previously run well in Japan Cup. Looks great and connections confident.
Each-ways Mores Wells is the pick of the whole overseas contingent and if he runs to his Irish Champion form would be in contention. Jaguar Mail’s form has been stamped by Screen Hero’s Japan Cup win. He is the horse with the most scope for improvement and Kinane knows his way around Sha Tin.
SPRINT
Apache Cat – whose form has been endorsed today by Takeover Target. Top form, well drawn and may not be too short at local odds.
Each-way Sunny Power at British odds – I think he’ll be the best of the locals and finishing fast.
MILE
Kip Deville – Top class Breeders’ Cup mile form on fast ground and training well. Should be overpriced.
Each-way Pressing continues to impress physically and is a miler who stays well and should give a solid run
CUP
Eagle Mountain – Trained with this in mid and has shown fast form at a mile and nearly won Breeders’ Cup over further so this trip should suit. Viva Pataca may well win but Eagle should be the value.
Each-way Balius will be finishing fast and could snatch third behind the two favourites.
My selections.
VASE
Outright selection was Jackpot Delight however the foot abscess has concerned me greatly. I still think he is value at 20-1 when played each-way.
Hence, Poseidon Adventure has been promoted to top selection from Purple Moon.
SPRINT
Green Birdie from Apache Cat because the first-up flop cannot get out of my head, and heading to Perth to race in that Group Two has IMO "camouflaged" that horrible performance, because the difference between Melbourne sprinters and Perth sprinters is enormous. And I think he should have beaten TT as well.
Laurel Guerreiro is a live bomb.
MILE
Still believe Armada has always been better than Good Ba Ba.
CUP
I’m siding with Lush Lashes with the belief that where I see Viva Pataca positioned in-running is going to cause some trouble getting out for his run.
Going to be one exciting day.
The best argument for real racing over slow boat racing is tomorrow’s action in Hong Kong compared to today’s abandonment at Cheltenham.
I’m a firm believer in betting the best overlays first with the bookies and then adding some form choices to go along in the pools. When they both coalesce I usually hammer them. This meeting is the best worldwide by a long way for that strategy and it has been seriously profitable for me the last few years. It can require betting multiple horses in each race. Not everybody’s cup of tea.
The Vase
The best bet on criteria above has to be Jaguar Mail. 14/1 with Paddy Power is a fantastic price as the place portion of that bet is bigger than the win currently on the Tote pools. Those local odds will change but he wont be much bigger than half of 14/1. Doctor Dino could be a saver which for me is money back and a few high quality meals too boot. I take Adrian’s comments concerning Purple Moon onboard and there seem to be bullish noises coming from the Bucellati camp.
Sprint
Tough one. Have had a small e/w at 16/ 1 on Green Birdie. Will look at Apache Cat for me the most likely winner closer to the race. If Marchand D’or were to go off at bigger than 10/1 it would be folly not to have a little go. Mythical Flight will most definitely see some of money (not as big as originally intended) but looking at local pool prices I’ll wait on that one till tomorrow morning.
Mile
Between Good Ba Ba and Armada for me. 6/1 on Armada is the one I’ve nailed my colors too. Was a very close second in this two years ago beating Ramonti decisively. Ramonti was one of my biggest money spinners in 07 based on that run. Something must have gone wrong with him thereafter because he was out for a year from March 07 to 08. His warmup run in the sprint last time was simply astonishing. Champion on board with a perfect draw and 6/1 looks almost too good to be true. Was on Good Ba Ba last year at big odds with Paddy Power and he has to be right in the reckoning especially with the jockey change. Will have something on him as well. Finally a horse I could not resist a few weeks back when odds first came out was Able One at 50/1. Way too big a price for that one. Small investment for a healthy return. If some of these Europeans are "overpriced" I would not shy away from putting something on them also.
Cup
Viva Pataca at 5/2 is the main bet. Will be half that price at racetime. If the French raiders Loup Breton and Trincot are anywhere near their current prices they will definitely see some of my money. Eagle Mountain is currently 8/1 on the tote and while I cant see anyway of that holding up if he is around that price you’d be a fool not to consider it.
Last year Ramonti was allowed to go off at almost 4/1 locally and those are the moments when you have to take your heart in your hand and make a stand.
Jaguar has halved in price on PP since this morning.
Just found an Australian Tote market on BF for this so will be betting on there in the hope that I may get a price that’ll persuade me to back Marchand Dor.
If not, it’ll be Apache Cat and Moorhouse Lad for me in the sprint.
Eagle Mountain is still the bet of the day for me.
Already on Purple Moon at 11’s for the Vase with B365 although if he fails to be in the frame here I feel I may have to take a back step from following him again. He’s starting to get to that ‘expensive to back’ stage for this year even though he’s only had 3 runs so far….
The Mile is wide open for me other than a small loyal wager on Major Cadeaux
Absolutely gutted to be beaten with Purple Moon there on the line
Really thought Jamie rode him to perfection and on first impressions I thought he’d got there
Doctor Dino? I put a line through him on his form this year….Oh well
Should have followed trackwork.
The horse’s form skyrocketed upon returning to Hong Kong. He loves it there. Turned his entire form around, which I didn’t rate either.
I can only imagine Coolmore set high standards when evaluating their 3YOs at seasons end, and those who don’t appear to be top class and their pedigrees aren’t as valuable are offered for sale.
It seemed an odd sale to me at the time – a 3yo who’d placed in 2 derbys, and had appeared to improve when dropped back to 10f at the back end of his 3yo season. He appeared to have plenty of scope to improve as a 4yo over 10f as well.
But like you say, they had so many horses for this season (especially at around that trip).
Anyway, kudos to his new connections.
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