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Yes I am talking through my pocket to a degree, however the ride Dettori gave Hillstar yesterday was poor. He couldn’t have found more trouble if he had tried.
I am not sure he would have won but it would certainly have been a lot closer.
He is not a great jockey anymore IMO and I get the impression that visually,half the time he does not seem to try when riding horses, although that is just me and that may well be his styleI did notice that Hillstar got a quiet ride and I felt that he would have a tough time held up in a race where he was up in grade, running over a shorter trip and tackling much faster ground than he did when runner up to Brown Panther.
Telescope was far superior on the day but it did cross my mind that if Jockey’s were to be riding to Formula 1 instructions then Dettori did a marvellous job of making sure he didn’t pass Jenson Button.
It would have been a matter for concern had Hillstar not managed to take second place but, as it was, he achieved his best possible finishing position.
I doubt Frankie has anything like the hunger and motivation he once had and is probably, like Keiren Fallon, in transition mode from Jockey to post retirement career.
Thanks for the good crack. Time for me to move on. Be lucky.
I thought it was poor in the extreme. Unlikely to have won perhaps, but I thought Telescope was hugely flattered by the margin of victory
I backed Hillstar as a main bet.
Ridden by Frankie in exactly the manner expected. He’s a hold up horse who can sometimes take a hold (best kept in behind horses in the early stages). On the inner, three quarters of the way back is ideal. However, with this type you do need a bit of luck in running. More often than not you do get gaps appearing in a truly run race. With a guaranteed front-runner and another who’s best form is at longer distances (needs a test of stamina) – pace was always going to be good. Unfortunately despite the gallop being a good one there was little room to manoever, probably due to a field of well matched horses, more like a handicap with only a few pounds between the whole field going in to the race. In the straight Dandino and Hillstar innitially went for the same gap, Frankie needing to wait for an opening and by this time Telescope was clear.
I’d put it down to being a victim of circumstance rather than a "poor ride". Unclear passage probably cost Frankie a couple of lengths and (allowing for that) – Hillstar ran as well as form entitled him to. There’s absolutely nothing to suggest he’d be capable of matching his stable companion’s improved performance anyway.
Value Is EverythingI backed Telescope ( very impressive btw ), but that is neither here nor there.
As for Hillstar ; a horse whose action suggests a stiffer test of stamina and cut in the ground would be much more to his liking.
A speed horse he is not – borne out by the fact that on Gold Cup day ( prior to Hillstar’s race the following day ) Frankie had told Clare Balding that the Queen’s Estimate had destroyed Hillstar in a home gallop.
Surely, for those listening, enough information from putting them off backing the one paced Hillstar that week.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
I backed Telescope ( very impressive btw ), but that is neither here nor there.
As for Hillstar ; a horse whose action suggests a stiffer test of stamina and cut in the ground would be much more to his liking.
A speed horse he is not – borne out by the fact that on Gold Cup day ( prior to Hillstar’s race the following day ) Frankie had told Clare Balding that the Queen’s Estimate had destroyed Hillstar in a home gallop.
Surely, for those listening, enough information from putting them off backing the one paced Hillstar that week.
Hillstar’s action is not what might be called typical of a firm ground horse H, but from his form there is every indication of being
best
on a sound surface and won the King Ed over the
same
course and
distance
on similar (perhaps even
firmer
) ground than the Hardwicke.
Why place so much significance on home gallops? The horse was not odds-on, the odds made it a good bet. ie If he ran to form (and he did) then unless something improved Hillstar would be good enough to win. When you take luck in running out of the equation Hillstar ran as well as you could expect. However, Telescope did improve… and how!
Value Is EverythingWhy place so much significance on home gallops? The horse was not odds-on, the odds made it a good bet. ie If he ran to form (and he did) then unless something improved Hillstar would be good enough to win. When you take luck in running out of the equation Hillstar ran as well as you could expect. However, Telescope did improve… and how!
As the so called experts always say : the horse doesn’t know what odds it is for winning a race. Why place so much significance on home gallops ? I usually don’t,but to trainers and work riders alike, the outcome of such gallops can prove invaluable, and very telling.
Frankie ( who rode Hillstar in that home gallop ) obviously thought this particular home gallop had some significance – otherwise why mention it ? His point being that a Gold Cup winner/dour stayer ( Estimate ) was able to show a presumably faster, middle-distance horse ( Hillstar ) a clean pair of heals, when clearly the opposite was expected to happen.
Gambling Only Pays When You're Winning
Why place so much significance on home gallops? The horse was not odds-on, the odds made it a good bet. ie If he ran to form (and he did) then unless something improved Hillstar would be good enough to win. When you take luck in running out of the equation Hillstar ran as well as you could expect. However, Telescope did improve… and how!
As the so called experts always say : the horse doesn’t know what odds it is for winning a race. Why place so much significance on home gallops ? I usually don’t,but to trainers and work riders alike, the outcome of such gallops can prove invaluable, and very telling.
Frankie ( who rode Hillstar in that home gallop ) obviously thought this particular home gallop had some significance – otherwise why mention it ? His point being that a Gold Cup winner/dour stayer ( Estimate ) was able to show a presumably faster, middle-distance horse ( Hillstar ) a clean pair of heals, when clearly the opposite was expected to happen.
It wasn’t "very telling", Hillstar ran to form.
If there was no "home gallop", Hillstar would’ve been around 11/4. As Sir Michael said before the race, on form Telescope and Hillstar had just as good a chance as each other. Only difference being Telescope was more likely to improve so deserved to be shorter of the two stable companions. Yes, the gallop was a negative, so push him out a bit; but as is often the case a negative is over-played; 5/1 or even 7/1 SP was worth taking a chance. Many jockeys are prone to exaggeration. When one horse does unexpectedly better than another; what starts as two horses finishing upsides (better for the "stayer") turns in to stayer blowing the middle-distnce horse away. Is Hillstar usually a good worker? If not, it doesn’t really matter at all.
What Frankie said proved inconsequential, although it did indicate Estimate was ready to perform to her best after a long time off. Hillstar moved well throughout the race and certainly not like a one paced plodder. When allowing for interference, produced a quality of performance in line with his form (not in line with his home gallop).
Value Is Everything
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