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trabolgan has injury problems though, and diamond harry was a bit of a bridle ponce who generally travelled well but found very little off the bit. If my memory is correct he was injured just before he could even run in the gold cup that same season he won the hennessy anyway.
I think you’re being too negative to be honest. it’s very hard to pick holes in bobs worth. as for saying he proved nothing beyond what he did in the rsa, sorry but I can’t agree with that. plenty of rsa winners have gone on to do nothing in their second season. he proved he could mix it with the big boys, tidal bay is a very good yardstick. that in itself should account for his price shortening.
if he had run a stinker, then his price would have shot right out. using your logic, the only horses that would ever shorten in ante-post markets would be horses that put up spectacular performances like denman did in his first hennessy win. or horses that win very specific races, like the king george.
agree he shouldn’t be 7-2 but 5-1 seems about right.
Probably am being a bit negative, for the record I didnt think there was anything wrong with Bobs Worths performance, you can only beat whats put in front of you. To do it in the manner he did does merit respect. As the betting for the Gold Cup is concerned, taking the current price would be pointless imo. We don’t yet know enough about the other novices and how they’ve progressed from last year to gauge it properly, the christmas period should tell us more.
Btw the one horse I think is the most interesting looking back at the race is Teaforthree. Has national stamped all over him.i said as much on here before the race. also he’s proven at an extreme distances and if the handicapper lets him in with a light weight i’d give him a fantastic chance.
What price would you offer if you were a bookmaker Andrew?
Bobs Worth did achieve quite a bit more in the Hennessey than he did in the RSA. Beat First Lieutenent far easier on Saturday. If (as expected) continuing to improve at the same rate, he’d be right up with the best staying chasers come March. What’s more, course/Festival form needs to be taken in to account and no doubt the reason why bookmakers make him that short. ie Others may have "better form" as things stand, but not at Cheltenham. Hennessey may not have a great record as a Gold Cup trial, but winners don’t usually have such an impressive Festival record, 2 wins from 2 runs. Horses like Silviniaco Conti and Diamond Harry don’t have that CV, which is allowed for in their Gold Cup price.
Paddy Power probably have Gold Cup ante-post liabilities on the horse from bets struck prior to Saturday – keeping Bobs Worth shorter @ 7/2. Don’t think 5/1 is good enough value for me to bet either, I’d want 7/1. That’s no criticsm of the bookmaker’s 5/1 price. Because my idea of its true chance is around 6/1; so adding a mark up – if I were a bookmaker would need to offer 5/1.
Value Is EverythingAgree, teaforthree looks an ideal National candidate, both Welsh and English. Not given a hard race once beaten.
Value Is EverythingWhat price would you offer if you were a bookmaker Andrew?
Bobs Worth did achieve quite a bit more in the Hennessey than he did in the RSA. Beat First Lieutenent far easier on Saturday. If (as expected) continuing to improve at the same rate, he’d be right up with the best staying chasers come March. What’s more, course/Festival form needs to be taken in to account and no doubt the reason why bookmakers make him that short. ie Others may have "better form" as things stand, but not at Cheltenham. Hennessey may not have a great record as a Gold Cup trial, but winners don’t usually have such an impressive Festival record, 2 wins from 2 runs. Horses like Silviniaco Conti and Diamond Harry don’t have that CV, which is allowed for in their Gold Cup price.
Paddy Power probably have Gold Cup ante-post liabilities on the horse from bets struck prior to Saturday – keeping Bobs Worth shorter @ 7/2. Don’t think 5/1 is good enough value for me to bet either, I’d want 7/1. That’s no criticsm of the bookmaker’s 5/1 price. Because my idea of its true chance is around 6/1; so adding a mark up – if I were a bookmaker would need to offer 5/1.
Daresay there are also some antepost Henderson bets around for most of the horses that won last season.
It jumps, it stays, it loves Cheltenham, it’s Geraghty and Henderson. There is no negative.
For sure Henderson/Gerraghty have a good record at the Festival particularly last year. But how many of those 2012 winners also won in 2011? Bobs Worth.
Value Is EverythingWhat price would you offer if you were a bookmaker Andrew?
Bobs Worth did achieve quite a bit more in the Hennessey than he did in the RSA. Beat First Lieutenent far easier on Saturday. If (as expected) continuing to improve at the same rate, he’d be right up with the best staying chasers come March. What’s more, course/Festival form needs to be taken in to account and no doubt the reason why bookmakers make him that short. ie Others may have "better form" as things stand, but not at Cheltenham. Hennessey may not have a great record as a Gold Cup trial, but winners don’t usually have such an impressive Festival record, 2 wins from 2 runs. Horses like Silviniaco Conti and Diamond Harry don’t have that CV, which is allowed for in their Gold Cup price.
Paddy Power probably have Gold Cup ante-post liabilities on the horse from bets struck prior to Saturday – keeping Bobs Worth shorter @ 7/2. Don’t think 5/1 is good enough value for me to bet either, I’d want 7/1. That’s no criticsm of the bookmaker’s 5/1 price. Because my idea of its true chance is around 6/1; so adding a mark up – if I were a bookmaker would need to offer 5/1.
Would probably go 8/1 Bobs Worth which I think is what he was before the race. Going back to the RSA , do you not think had it been over 3m2f, he would have won by farther. I think it’s pretty safe to assume had they gone an extra 2 furlongs, the winning distance would have been greater. As for course form, it is impressive but is it anymore impressive than his Newbury form? I would be inclined to say any left handed course would suit him myself and while course form is important, it’s by no means essential.
As a punter , I would be very wary of taking anything less than 10’s for any horse to win the Gold Cup at the moment, it’s looking like one of the most exciting and open renewals for many years.
The Giant Bolster for example is 25/1 in places which seems astonishing when you consider he might well have won it last year bar a mistake at the last. Would much rather take that than the woefully short odds available on the current favourite.For sure Henderson/Gerraghty have a good record at the Festival particularly last year. But how many of those 2012 winners also won in 2011? Bobs Worth.
How many were old enough to ?
Bobs Worth won, Finian’s finished second. They’ve all proven festival form.
So from the last two festivals you now have one horse with two firsts, one horse with a second and a first, three horses with a first each
Point is Mark, over the last couple of years Bobs Worth has shown improved form at (
best has been restricted to
) Cheltenham. It may well be the other Henderson winners are
"equally"
effective at Cheltenham as elsewhere. Their improvement has (at the moment at least) been put down to their
progressive nature
rather than
course
. On the other hand, Bobs Worth is thought to be a Cheltenham specialist. Therefore, with him winning so well at Newbury, there’s a
big chance
even more improvement will be forthcoming at Cheltenham in March. Hence the Gold Cup price is (imo rightly) more about expected improvement at Cheltenham, rather than the standard of current (Newbury) form.
Value Is Everything
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