- This topic has 210 replies, 47 voices, and was last updated 15 years, 11 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Thats fair enough Clive.
Friggo, I disagree. Do you think Air Force one will be competitive off 153, I would have a bigger problem with that mark, he is totally overrated.
JohnJ
The efforts on Roll Along and Air Force One this season suggest that Albertas Run is able to be competitive from his current mark. He was conceding weight in the Reynoldstown and more or less went through the SunAlliance like much the best, doing most of it on the bridle until his tendency to idle kicked in. At his best I could definitely see him being a player, but for reasons I’ve already outlined on this thread, I wouldn’t dream of backing him.
JohnJ,
Air Force One has shown he can be competitve off 150 (and was arguably better than the bare result that day), so in theory he should be competitive off 153. I have my doubts as to whether he’s as good going left-handed however. There is no doubt he has improved markedly since the Reynoldstown IMO, whereas I believe that run still represents Alberta’s Run’s best form.
Friggo,
AFO was beaten 24L in the Sun Alliance, he was off the bridle before they turned down the hill, I actually don’t think he fully stays 3 miles. I honestly don’t think he is within 2lbs of Alberta’s Run whether you rate AR higher or lower.
JohnJ.
Fair enough JohnJ, though I wouldn’t regard AFO’s SunAlliance effort as any description of a reliable run.
What evidence is there to suggest AFO needs to go right handed? Admittedly, his best form is that way around, but his best effort as a hurdler was at Cheltenham and his second to AR at Ascot was a fair reflection of his merit at the time- disagree AR isn’t well enough handicapped as well given he wasn’t extended to beat AFO in the Reynoldstown and 149 handicap-winner Roll Along in the RSA
What evidence is there to suggest AFO needs to go right handed? Admittedly, his best form is that way around, but his best effort as a hurdler was at Cheltenham and his second to AR at Ascot was a fair reflection of his merit at the time- disagree AR isn’t well enough handicapped as well given he wasn’t extended to beat AFO in the Reynoldstown and 149 handicap-winner Roll Along in the RSA
He was beaten a distance in the hurdles race at Cheltenham you have mentioned.
He has won all his races over fences on right handed tracks bar one win in a weak novice at the figure of eight Fontwell.
In two runs over fences on lefthanded tracks he was thrashed by Hobbs Hill at Newbury last November and the same happened in the Sun Alliance.On both occassions he jumped poorly.
The question is valid.
Give me a reason not to worry-he ticks a lot of the other boxes.
Does he go RH and does he have the class?Re Albertas Run. Isn’t that Carlisle race in which he made his seasonal debut, the same race that Exotic Dancer made his seasonal debut in (and was beaten in), a few years back. ED didn’t look special that day, but on his next two starts he won the Paddy Power GC & the Boylesports GC, then progressed to where he is today.
You could theorize that J.O’Neill uses the Carlisle race as a nice seasonal introduction for a potentially decent horse.
I’ve got no idea what’s going to win the race btw.
- Total Posts 17716
To be fair CL, Exotic Dancer did have the aid of cheekpieces in his next 2 races, which had proved such a help the previous season.
I’ve more time for Jonjo than some on here though. His horses may be in and out of form, but that didn’t stop him winning 4, including a RSA, with Alberta’s Run last year.I just think he’s ran in better races at left handed tracks to be honest.
So he lacks the class??
There is, of course, that possibility. His seasonal debut was encouraging though, if his trainers statement he would badly need the run is taken at face value.
Like the other 6 you’ve mentioned so far, you mean?
I got the impression you were only asking the question to try and prove me wrong about the ground. Guess you didn’t like the answer too much
You better start getting up earlier in the morning mate if you want to get one over on me. I don’t give a rats ass who you think you are or how many buddies you got on here but for the last week you have been acting like a dick…….please please don’t respond to any of my posts I’m sick of your childish behaviourThe more I look this race, the more I feel that Alberta’s Run is a stand out bet. I would ignore his last two runs, at Aintree he probably was over the top, and his last performance at Carlisle was over an inadequate trip. How Air Force One is a shorter price is beyond me, he annihilated AFO at Cheltenham last year, I actually don’t think AFO stays 3m, despite winning over the trip, I believe he has just come up against inferior opposition.
The only horse I would fear would be Big Bucks who beat Albertas Run over 3m at Aintree. If the ground stays good to soft, Albertas is a cracking eachway bet, providing he runs!
JohnJ.
I’m with you on AFO JJ but I am not sure about him not staying. He always gives me the impression he is a danger to himself the way he jumps and he’sa dodgy bet at the best of times …..I suppose much depends on whether he has improved or not but he is going to have to have to beat AR if both run to form…….I don’t really fancy any of the two of them and I think an out and out stayer could win this…..like New Alco or CB of his low weight. The Hennessy is one of the hardest races on a horse on the calendar and speed very seldom comes into it.
Final decs of 17, anyone interested in stats will narrow it down to a 7yo
(50% strike rate in last 10 yrs) 2nd season chaser (70% success in last 10 yrs). That would narrow it down to just 2 horses! Verasi, and Albertas run. At the wieghts Verasi is getting a stone from Albertas, but who can you see has easily the best form. Surprise surprise Albertas run!!!!!!!
What is bothering me is that island flyer (2nd season chaser) is thrown in,
but he just hasn"t got the class to win a Hennessey.I’m doing well another non runner and another couple of hundred euros gone on New Alco
Still looking forward to the race though and now the dust has settled it looks a cracking Hennessy.
At least my origanal choice will go to post and of 10.6 he has a lot going for him. He has plenty speed as he showed when winning over hurdles and he wasn’t 100% fit….that speed plays a big part in keeping yourself in contention during the race, he loves a galloping track, he’s lightly raced and most importantly he will stay every yard. I just can’t see Jonjos giving him over a a stone on this track. Really hope he wins for John Quinn who has had the patience of a saint with the horse. I’ll back him again on the day when he will drift a couple of points when you lot back Albertas
I’m pleased, very pleased to see Island Flyer in the race at the weekend.
He is one of the horses i referred to in Fists’ thread of "what else is there".
I am not saying that he will win at the weekend, but in my opinion, he is an improving horse, and carrying bottom weight in the Hennessy will be good for him, especially with Denis O’Regan taking the ride.
He is one of the horses i have down to ‘watch out for in 2009’, in my 10 to follow list, so i am very keen to see how he runs in the Hennessy.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.