Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup 2009

[Grasshopper]

Only on the stout, sweetheart.

Oi, Delargy – stop nicking my tips and putting them up on TF Radio.

[Bulwark]

Whats the weather forecast due to be in newbury over the next few days?

Listening to todays racing it seemed like the ground was on the softer side of gd-sft. Reckon Killyglen will be all over t if it stays that way.

[Hard Held]

OK this is how I plan to play the race

Denman WIN @ 7/1 (antepost)
State of Play WIN @ 20/1 (antepost)

Killyglen WIN @ 8/1
Gone to Lunch TBP @ 3/1+
New Alco, small WIN but mostly TBP @ a big price

Keep changing my mind but overall I think Killyglen is the likeliest winner but Denman will go close.

[Anonymous]

Whats the weather forecast due to be in newbury over the next few days?

Listening to todays racing it seemed like the ground was on the softer side of gd-sft. Reckon Killyglen will be all over t if it stays that way.

Judged on the time of the Beginner’s chase today,the chase course isn’t far off genuine good ground, and there are only showers forecast for the area.

[Anonymous]

There’s light rain forecast for tomorrow, Bulwark, and heavy rain for Saturday. Judging by Tony McCoy’s comments after the first couple of races this afternoon, there was plenty of mud being kicked up but the ground wasn’t riding as slow as it appeared.

I can’t see it being any better than very soft come Hennessy time though.

[douginho]

Purposely waited before looking at the Hennessey until after todays racing to see what the course was riding like. It looked quite testing to my eye. I think many of the races were run at pedestrian pace today and it was noticable how tired they got in behind the winners in the truly run races (namely Riverside Theatre and Exmoor Ranger wins).

Killyglen might prefer better going although should stay well and is well weighted. His price is about right at 8-1.

Barbers Shop carries a good profile for the race and didn’t disgrace himself in the Gold Cup last spring. He has a good racing weight but I am not sure the combination of Ground and trip play to his strengths. He travels well and may prefer slightly better conditions.

Denman will be bang there as they come with 4 to jump its just a question of whether the weight tells or not. As with Killyglen his price means I wont be getting involved.

What a Friend has looked a nice horse every season but whenever he gets given a proper test he seems to come up short…maybe lacks the fight you’d expect from a Fergie horse lol! He flopped in Albert Bartlett in 2008 and again in the RSA last season.

Cappa Bleu has things much more to his liking than at Aintree last time and has been trained specifically for this. At around 9-1 he may be one I think about as part of each way perms on the day with trip, track and ground likely to suit.

Others that appeal at the bottom of the weights are Nenuphar Collonges and Kornati Kid. Nenuphar Collonges will definitely love the galloping track more than when a respectable sixth on his seasonal debut at Wincanton. He was never travelling that day and could just not land a blow. Alan Kings horses have been improving for a run and off 10st and at 20-1 he has a nice each way chance. Kornati Kid improved with every run as a novice before a good 6th in the 4 miler at the festival. He may not have got home and is potentially overpriced at 33-1.

And finally Ballyfitz. He ran well in the Paddy Power under pressure from a long way out keeping on in 4th. The step up in trip and the testing conditions are positives. At around 16-1 he has a nice chance.

In Summary I think Ballyfitz and Nenuphar Collonges are two each way bets against the field at 16-1 and 20-1 respectively. A small interest on Kornati Kid might also be in order.

(and sorry if anything I have said here is boring or has already been said, I just got carried away!)

[Hard Held]

The ground wasn’t that slow today. RT finished only 5 secs outside standard. Or maybe he is just exceptionally fast!

[Gingertipster]

My workings out and prices to 100%

Hennessy Cognac Gold Cup 3m2f110yds Chase Newbury

Working out for soft ground.
First line is best to worst chance, percentage, fair odds, (adding a “bookies mark up” to my prices as a check).

1/ 16%

11/2

(+ 2% = 9/2)
9 11-12

Denman

174 Brilliant winner of Cheltenham Gold Cup in 2008. Well handicapped on that run, despite now being off a 13lbs higher mark than when successful in this race two years ago. Needs to be better than last season when struggling with heart problems. Apparently looked well in a racecourse gallop at Exeter. Stable’s horses generally need a run to bring them on this term. Races prominently. Given one or two signs of planting himself at the start. (Stable form 6/10) 4/1 fav. R. Walsh

20/ 0.75%

132/1

(+ 0.75% = 66/1)
10 11-0

Joe Lively

162 Genuine stayer last season, probably not far enough for him these days. Injured in February and only 5th in Ireland on return. Front runner / races prominently. Jockey booking suggests connections don’t think he’s not up to it. (SF 6/10) 40/1 G. Hawkins (7)

17/ 1.25%

80/1

(+ 1% = 40/1)
9 10-13

Mon Mome

161 100/1 Grand National winner off a mark 13lbs lower than this. Speedier than Aintee suggests. Might have another primary target and need reappearance. Tracks pace / held up. (SF 6/10) 50/1 A. Coleman

13/ 2.25%

40/1

(+ 1% = 28/1)
9 10-9

My Will

157 Suited by 3m2f and more. Ran a good race to be 5th in last years Cheltenham Gold Cup. Little below form 3rd in Grand National and now races off a 5lb higher mark. Ran reasonably first time out, never with much chance of winning when 15 lengths 2nd to The Listener in a 3m grade 1 chase in Ireland. Seems more exposed than most in this field, place chances but can’t see him winning. Held up. (SF 6/10) 33/1 N. Schofield

3/ 10%

9/1

(+ 2.5% = 7/1)
7 10-8

Barbers Shop

156 Well backed in recent days to give The Queen a Hennessy winner. Seemed an unlikely stayer but ran really well 7th in Gold Cup at this trip. Not run yet in 2009/10 but excellent record fresh (2nd in Paddy Power Gold Cup last term). Should run well here if conditions don’t place too much emphasis on stamina. Held up. Wears first time cheek pieces which may fire him up too much. (SF 10/10) 13/2 B. Gerrraghty

2/ 14.5%

6/1

(+ 2.5% = 5/1)
7 10-6

Killyglen

154 Won Mildmay Novices Chase at Aintree on final start in 08/09. Beat Shining Gale easily by 9 lengths when receiving 2lbs. Charlie Manns charge franked the form when winning a grade 2 handicap at the weekend from a mark of 145. Would have won a lot more decisively but for being injured on the run in. Before Aintree, Killyglen pulled up in RSA chase after interrupted preparation. Below form at Carlisle on reappearance over a vastly inadequate trip (2 ½ miles). Stable is in much better form now too. Only defeats so far over fences when possibly not 100% fit? Second season chaser with potential to improve. Goes well on a soft surface. Held up. (SF 7/10)

8/1

D. O’Regan

16/ 1.5%

66/1

(+ 0.75% = 40/1)
10 10-6

War Of Attrition

154 Cheltenham Gold Cup winner for the Irish in 2006, seems on the downgrade now but handicap mark is falling with ability. Ran reasonably when 3rd to The Listener on soft. Very best form on firmer ground but does act on soft. Held up. (SF 5/10) 40/1 N. Madden

14/ 1.5%

66/1

(+ 1.25% = 33/1)
8 10-4

An Accordian

152 Looked to be capable of better when winning William Hill Handicap at Cheltenham Festival in 2008. Only seen once since, pulled up. Has looked a tricky ride and plays a silly tune when in front. Held up / tracks pace. Blinkered and tongue tied. (SF 6/10) 33/1 T.Scudamore

5/ 6.5%

15/1

(+ 2% = 11/1)
8 10-4

Casey Jones

152 Just behind War Of Attrition and My Will last time. Best in of the three at these weights and may be better suited by going left handed here. Carberry stopped riding too soon (gave up) when staying on 5th in RSA Chase. Has been inconsistent in the past. Possibly needs more throttle to his engine. Held up / tracks pace. (SF 6/10)

20/1

N. Fehily. Tongue tied.

7/ 6.5%

15/1

(+ 2.5% = 10/1)
6 10-4

What A Friend

152 Second string of Paul Nicholls and second favourite to Denman. But the price relates more to trainer’s opinion than form shown on the racecourse. Winner of three small field novice chases last term but flopped in the RSA starting second favourite. Owned by Sir Alex Ferguson, holds his head high and sometimes looks awkward. Held up. (SF 6/10) 7/1 S. Thomas

6/ 6.5%

15/1

(+ 2% = 11/1)
9 10-3

Gone To Lunch

151 From the small but successful yard of J. Scott. Suited by extreme distances, insufficient test on reappearance. Laziness means he’s usually under pressure early. Though that trait possibly makes the handicapper struggle to get his worth. Went close in Scottish National and now off just a 3lb higher mark. Possibly at his very best away from very soft ground and goes well for AP McCoy. Held up. (SF 4/10)

16/1

S. Durack

10/ 3.75%

25/1

(+ 1% = 20/1)
9 10-2

Snowy Morning

150 Irish, dropped 6lbs since running 9th in Grand National. Thought by trainer never quite right last season. Now just 5lbs higher than when 3rd in 08 renewal. In next start 7 lengths second to Neptunes Collonges in Grade 1 2008 Punchestown Gold Cup. Most form not as good. Not as good a jumper of park fences and fell when favourite for Denman’s Hennessy. Held up. (SF 9/10) 25/1 P. Townend

9/ 5.75%

16/1

(+ 2.25% = 12/1)
7 10-0

Cappa Bleu

148 Won Foxhunter Chase at Cheltenham for trainer Sheila Crow. Has age and physical scope to make a better horse against professionals this term. Now with Evan Williams who was successful in this race with State Of Play in 2007. Only 3rd over inadequate 2m4f, none the less disappointing on return in October. Expected to do better at this distance, but stable jockey’s decision to ride his stable companion seems a negative. Held up? (SF 6/10) 10/1 W. Hutchinson. Tongue tied.

21/ 0.25%

400/1

(+ 0.75% = 100/1)
9 10-0

Chelsea Harbour

148 Irish chaser who was only 6th at Cheltenham last time, does not jump well enough to win a race like this. Likes a test of stamina. First time blinkers have to work wonders. Races prominently. (SF 4/10) 50/1 A. Lynch

8/ 6%

16/1

(+ 2% = 12/1)
9 10-0 (9-12)

Ballyfitz

146 Ran well enough in terms of form when well fancied in Paddy Power (2m5f, 4th). Staying on which suggest has a chance at 3m2f110yds. Will have to improve his jumping though, best efforts so far over fences in small fields when able to dominate. 2lbs out of the handicap. Carruthers coming out may help his jumping, but there are other prominent runners. Front runner / races prominently / tracks pace. (SF 7/10)

20/1

P. Brennen

11/ 3.25%

28/1

(+ 2% = 18/1)
7 10-0 (9-11)

Kornati Kid

145 Found 4 miles too far in National Hunt Chase but should stay this trip. Progressive chaser up to that point and could do better in 09/10. Acts well on a soft surface. 3lbs out of the handicap. Tracks pace. (SF 6/10)

33/1

R. Johnson

12/ 2.75%

33/1

(+ 1.25% = 25/1)
8 10-0 (9-11)

Nenuphar Collonges

145 Lazy but genuine staying chaser. 3rd to Wichita Lineman in William Hill Handicap at Festival off a 3lbs lower mark. Suited by a strongly run race. Made mistakes on reappearance, only 6th at Wincanton. 3lbs out of the handicap. Held up. Seems more exposed than most. (SF 5/10) 33/1 R. Thornton. Blinkered.

19/ 1%

100/1

(+ 1% = 50/1)
8 10-0 (9-11)

New Alco

145 Last start on April 23rd 2008. Asking a lot to win this after such a break. Runs off same mark as when second to An Accordian in 08 William Hill Handicap. Now weighted to finish alongside if it was not for being 3lbs out of the handicap. May not stay this trip in very testing conditions. Held up. (SF 6/10) 40/1 M. O’Connell

15/ 1.5%

66/1

(+ 1% = 40/1)
8 10-0 (9-11)

Niche Market

145 Good jumper. Progressed all last season and ended up an English trained winner of the Irish Grand National. Usually races prominently. Probably needed race first time this season, could be trained specifically for Aintree this time around. Races prominently. (SF 6/10) 40/1 A. Glassonberry (3)

4/ 7.25%

13/1

(+ 1.75% = 10/1)
9 10-0 (9-11)

State Of Play

145 Winner of this in 2007 off this exact same mark. Though 3lbs out of the handicap here. Off a mark 5lbs higher when 4th in the Grand National final start. This his first start since Aintree, but runs his best races fresh. Stable jockey has presumably chosen State Of Play over Cappa Bleu. Held up / tracks pace. (SF 6/10)

16/1

P. Moloney

18/ 1.25%

80/1

(+ 1% = 40/1)
9 10-0 (9-7)

Offshore Account

141 Prolific winner in his novice season culminating in Grade 1 Champion Novice Chase. Benefited from Aces Four (2nd to Denman in RSA) falling at the last. Well handicapped even with being out of the weights on that best run, (on a firm surface, though is a winner on heavy). Injured, lightly raced and little form since. Did run well for a long way in the last year’s Grand National . Tracks pace / races prominently. (SF 4/10) 40/1 D. Casey. Tongue tied.

Have backed Killyglen 9/1(main bet), State Of Play 18.5/1 and Casey Jones 22/1 with a small bet on Kornati Kid 41/1.

Value Is Everything

[douginho]

Good read that Ginger. Always good when someone else sees some things the same as yourself, especially concerning outsiders (Kornati Kid in this case).

[Anonymous]

Good read that Ginger. Always good when someone else sees some things the same as yourself, especially concerning outsiders (Kornati Kid in this case).

Tbh Doughino, I stopped reading it after about 3 lines.
Anyone who can’t make a point without taking half a page up hasn’t really got a point to make.
Imo, of course.

[douginho]

Thats fair enough reet hard. But sometimes I can maybe learn something from the long posts…snippets of info that can be useful. I tend not to make long posts but thats not to see i dont enjoy reading those of others. Sometimes i give up halfway through if i get bored though

[Gingertipster]

Good read that Ginger. Always good when someone else sees some things the same as yourself, especially concerning outsiders (Kornati Kid in this case).

Tbh Doughino, I stopped reading it after about 3 lines.
Anyone who can’t make a point without taking half a page up hasn’t really got a point to make.
Imo, of course.

Reet,
You have written enough about just one horse on this thread to write a book.

Dont’t worry, my post was not done for your benefit. I know you have no interest in value.

tbh Reet, I get bored of hearing posts concentrating on one individual horse (whoever that may be). When the reason any horse is / may be a good bet; is as much to do with the other runners failings. Imo of course.

Value Is Everything

[Anonymous]

Sam Thomas is a liability, and needs hoofing in the nuts at every opportunity.

PS. IMVHO.

PPS. I’m a bit hungover today, and not in the best of humour.

PPPS. Fist, stop talking shite.

[Gazs Way De Solzen]

I havent got a really strong view on the race as of yet, will have a closer look later today.

I do like the look of Barbers Shop though.

Looks progressive, jumps well, travels well, has a fair bit to find on GC 2009 form, but at the weights, he could get very close to Denman.

6/1 is a short price, so wouldnt be much of an upset if he was there or there abouts, but if Denman wasn’t to win then it may be Barbers Shop.

[Barker]

Horse by horse guide to Saturday’s big race…..

http://bettingnews.boylesports.com/hors … review.php

Casey Jones is a NR by the way!

[Bosranic]

I posted my views on page five, but I still like the look of Killyglen.

It appears that the vibes from the Nicholls Camp favour What A Friend. Ruby was never going to get off a Gold Cup winner, so I wouldn’t read too much into him riding Denman.

I hope The Tank comes back to his best, but he’s worth opposing at the moment (for reasons previously stated).

My idea of the first four:

1 Killyglen
2 Barbers Shop
3 What A Friend
4 Cappa Bleu

Anyone fancy having a go, too.

[Anonymous]

Judged on the time of the Beginner’s chase today,the chase course isn’t far off genuine good ground, and there are only showers forecast for the area.

The 2m1f Chase today was again run notably quicker than the rest of the card.
Anyone notice if they’d moved the start for this race, as the times for both days are well out of kilter with the rest of the races?

[Author]

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